Updated 2018-04-20 p.m.Gem Size / Glow Probability ChartsHere are the updated probability charts for gems sizes and glows. Note, the odds are the same (size 1-10 odds = glow intensity 1-10 odds), and they are fairly run-of-the mill exponential. Special thanks to everyone who participated
in this thread to provide the data we needed to come up with this. That end-of-month snapshot data removed the reporting bias that was skewing the original thread -- people were underreporting small gems and overreporting large gems.
tl;dr - these numbers are close enough to reality that you can use them as if they were reality - the error won't be measurable in the course of time we'll be mining gems
[close enough to canon that you will never know if it isn't without someone who knows the code telling you otherwise]The odds of a small gem are slightly over 50% instead of being a nice tight flat 50%.
Why?Using the model alone, the numbers
/would/ be a flat 50%, but that also adds other problems. Let me explain the reasons and assumptions that go into all this.
1) In a natural system, we might expect that sizes and glow intensities increase (effectively) infinitely. The mathematical model fit to the data -does- assume that. Looking at the total, and assuming the sizes and glows are capped as Titanic (size and glow category 10) we have 1/1024th (0.1%) as a fudge factor. Not ideal, but outside of collecting a lot more data, not something we can definitively assign.
a) We could force the #s to equal 100% by adjusting the entire system to cover that missing 0.1% but any method we chose will be arbitrary and not necessarily reflective of the underlying mechanics. In spite of that, and considering the error is the exact value of the odds of the Titanic size/glow gems, rather than count that as error or "fudge" in the system, we've chosen to use some meta (it is a created system) to assign it in what is a fair way (statistically as it's evenly distributed through the system) to force our otherwise boundless equation to fit to a 1-10 system instead of an infinite system (halving the odds of the next larger size/glow forever).
2) The gem size and glow probabilities are a man-made system, not a natural system. That means we have some tools at our disposal that don't exist in the real world. For instance, we can make some assumptions based on human behavior and the design of the grid for spins. You'll note there are 1024 spaces on the grid. That's classic binary / doubling / exponential math. The strict model numbers line up very well with that except for the missing 1/1024, literally the exact space of a single dot on the grid.
Think of it this way, if you want to break down the sizes into the same sort of space as the grid:
1024 total spaces on the grid.
Small - 512 spaces on the grid
Average - 256 spaces on the grid
Large - 128 spaces
Massive - 64 spaces
Enormous - 32 spaces
Gigantic - 16 spaces
Staggering - 8 spaces
Monumental - 4 spaces
Colossal - 2 spaces
Titanic - 1 space
See how neat and tidy that is? We get all ten known size/glow categories and can't halve the number anymore and keep it a whole number. Great!
But that adds up to 1023 spaces, not 1024...
This means we have to take our model and evenly distribute that missing 0.1% thoroughout the whole function, instead of just arbitrarily adding it into the odds for a given size/glow. That's very important, as while 0.1% wouldn't mean much to the odds of a small gem (50% vs 50.1%) it would /double/ the odds of a Titanic gem (0.1% to 0.2%). So each of the percentages are based on the above number / 1023 (instead of 1024).
Is that how it's handled in the code?
No idea. Does that matter?
No.
Why not? The differences are so small that, arguably, you will never be able to detect it and we probably can't even get a data set large enough to test and prove one way or another without mining for Erf for millenia. So we're not going to.
Given that minor adjustment, the final probabilities rounded to two decimals, in table form, follow:

If you are SUPER interested in the excel sheets and work behind fitting the data from
here and getting the model, PM me, I can probably email you that. It's a headache to post and not of interest to most people so I'm not doing the necessary acrobatics.

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Classic Post based on individual data submissions below, for history.
Last Updated 2018-04-08 p.m.Updates (TL;DR Version)Total Observations: 226
Unique Color: 85
Glow 10 discovered - TITANIC!
Size 10 discovered - TITANIC!
New colors discovered: beige, midnight, sapphire, burgundy, sage, peacock, pumpkin
Established Point Max Gem: Colossal (81 pts) + Titanic glow (100 pts) = 181
Current Record Gem: 104 points (Average Titanic - mined by Linsaran 2018-Mar-4th)
Tie record holder: 104 points (Average Titanic - mined by JadedDragoon 2018-Mar)
Previous Record Gem: 82 points (Small Crown Jewel - mined by Tathar 2018-Feb)
Please Report All Gems - even those you don't think are exciting - to avoid skewing the data.
RECENT NEWS CONFIRMED! Size 7 gem FOUND!
Added visual size probability chart (based on 2018-Feb-25th model)!
Prediction of Glow 9 Confirmed via Discovery! - Crown Jewel glow
Extended VersionHi there!
I didn't see a specific thread for this yet, so I'm starting one.
Please respond with what gems you've found. I'll add and tally them here and we can try to get a count as to their frequency and maybe be able to derive a commonality (and value) from that.
Include, for each gem (and my first gem for example):
Size: Massive
Glow: none
Color: Strawberry
Also - first spin or mined. I don't expect a difference but it's worth tracking.
NOTE: You can't direct link to a gem (such as
https://login.erfworld.com/gem?id=7856) as you cannot see a gem unless you're the current owner (presumably). Images can be shared, of course.
Good mining to you!
The end-of-March data capture was a huge success. I have it on good information that we captured a large portion of the total gems mined for the month. Considering we're most certainly getting underreporting of smaller gem sizes and over-reporting of larger/shinier gems, I'm going to stop tabulating and refining the model against the individual gem data reported in this thread.
I'll post a summary of the results of the end-of-March post here once it's complete.
Updated 2018-04-08 p.m.Okay! Here are the latest stats from the thread and last to be added specifically based on the data in this thread, ending with my update post on page eleven. Yes, that's right: ours go to eleven.
SizesWe're up to 226 reported gems so far, and the expected power curve is holding by and large (smaller = more common) and firming up. We had a second report of the size 7 class, called
Staggering. Very exciting and validating that it finally was seen and shared.

We're inferring a size 10 gem based on the appearance of a glow 10 (meaning 10^2 = 100 points, not html code values). It may or may not exist, but if it does, it's predicted to occur at a roughly 0.098% (~1 in 1024) pop rate when a gem is mined. The hunt is on!
Total 226
------------
Small 99
Average 54
Large 37
Massive 18
Enormous 6
Gigantic 6
Staggering 2
Monumental 3
Colossal 1
Size_10 0
I'll update the visual scale and the percentages after a) size 10 shows it's lovely, ginormous face, or b) early next month after I get a clean data set from people's March mining results pages.
We also have enough clean images to have built a visual size comparison scale, based on the stock display orientation and distance.
Also, there's now enough data that I'm comfortable in the model. Sufficiently so to make a nice visual key to give people a good idea of a given gem being a given size:
GlowsGlows and no-glows have been trending away from the initial 50/50 seen. I'm concerned that we're adding some reporting bias here over time as people may be less likely to report "boring", non-glowing gems.
UPDATE: we are definitely underreporting no glows. The end-of-march data supports a very clean 50% chance of a gem having a glow.
The Titan of the glows has been mined! All hail the 100-point (level 10) glow of the Titanic!
Glows function in the same fasion as size, increasing glow intensity increasing the point value in a power scale fashion.
It's notable that the current glow distribution now follows the expected trends given the point values. Yay for a larger data set! Earlier it didn't when the set was small and made figuring out the glow-related points more challenging. Remember data doesn't always play nice boys and girls; get a bigger sample size (to a point) - yay randomness!
Total 226
-------------
None 97
Dusky 58
Lucent 28
Bright 16
Brilliant 11
Radiant 7
Dazzling 4
Starlike 2
Crown Jewel 1
Titanic 2
ColorsNew gems brought new colors!
New colors added: beige, midnight, sapphire, burgundy, sage, peacock, pumpkin!
historical note: we've lost one color - Turquiose (now turquoise). Retconjured / RIP!
Gem NamesGem names are not permanent - you can rename them, even if you didn't mine them up or initially name them. (thank you Valareos for verifying)
Raw DataCount Size Glow Color Finder
1 Massive none Strawberry Yshl
1 Massive none Frost JBeshir
1 Small none Canary JBeshir
1 Small none Spectral JBeshir
1 Small none Bronze Jaxad0127
1 Massive Lucent Baby Blue Gresteh
1 Massive none Bottle Green Caprice
1 Small Dusky Lemon-lime dmolla
1 Small Bright Turquoise bsheairs
1 Small Brilliant Honey RedGirl
1 Massive none Green Bandaid
1 Average none Watermelon Salvage
1 Large none Ocean Bandaid
1 Small Bright Periwinkle Bandaid
1 Large none Blood Bandaid
1 Large Lucent Pearl Bandaid
1 Small Dusky Cotton Candy Bandaid
1 Small Bright Aquamarine Bandaid
1 Large none Bronze Merilynne
1 Monumental Dusky Spring Green Mr Awesome
1 Average Lucent Turquoise HighJumper
1 Average Dazzling Blood Carl
1 Small none Scarlet JBeshir
1 Gigantic Radiant Shell The_Author_Is_Dead
1 Small Dusky Teal pawnhamster
1 Average Dusky Green Raeden
1 Small Brilliant Seaweed JadedDragoon
1 Average none Teal JadedDragoon
1 Large Lucent Copper 0beron
1 Average Dusky Army Green DukeBG
1 Small Dusky Navy Danielle
1 Average none Red Balder
1 Average Dusky Sand Boondoggle
1 Average Dusky Lavender Spleenlord
1 Enormous Brilliant Amethyst Darth Curious
1 Average Dusky Burnt Orange Fexor
1 Massive none Citrine cyvarios
1 Small Dusky Lemon-lime greycat
1 Enormous Radiant Grass GhostlyClockwork
1 Large Dazzling Spring Green Infidel
1 Small Lucent Army Green Frogpop
1 Small Brilliant Royal Blue No one in particular
1 Small Brilliant Peridot CelebrenIthil
1 Gigantic none Lime Mark Ion
1 Large Bright Obsidian OpusFocus
1 Colossal none Baby Blue Octavian
1 Small Lucent Silver Ganny
1 Small Dusky Raspberry thriggle
1 Small Brilliant Violet salmonstudies
1 Small none Butter Valareos
1 Gigantic Brilliant Berry xtrapwr
1 Small none Bronze Airwhale
1 Small Starlike Copper sdub
1 Small Radiant Evergreen kokemoor
1 Large none Orange Linsaran
1 Small none Grass xtrapwr
1 Small Dusky Army Green xtrapwr
1 Large Dusky Malachite xtrapwr
1 Average Bright Wine xtrapwr
1 Average none Peach Linsaran
1 Small none Spruce barrettrees
1 Small Lucent Indigo Linsaran
1 Large none Plum Linsaran
1 Small Lucent Royal Blue xtrapwr
1 Gigantic none Obsidian JBeshir
1 Average Bright Evergreen Mr Awesome
1 Small Dusky Graphite Valareos
1 Large none Aquamarine Valareos
1 Small none Mahogany Jaxad0127
1 Massive Dusky Yellow Valareos
1 Small none Chocolate Yshl
1 Small Crown Jewel Peach Tathar
1 Large Dusky Navy Valareos
1 Average Radiant Coral Valareos
1 Small Lucent Malachite Mr Awesome
1 Massive Bright Purple The Emperors Angel
1 Average none Diamond The Emperors Angel
1 Average none Iron The Emperors Angel
1 Large Dazzling Lavender dmolla
1 Monumental Dusky Spring Green Mr Awesome
1 Enormous Dusky Shell sdub
1 Massive none Turquoise Linsaran
1 Small none Cinnamon Airwhale
1 Small Dusky Wine Yshl
1 Small none Iron EvilBarrels
1 Large none Chocolate Valareos
1 Small none Stormcloud Airwhale
1 Massive none Pea eltotsira
1 Average Lucent Blue Yshl
1 Small Dusky Bone arrehn
1 Average none Cornflower Blue JadedDragoon
1 Average none Cotton Candy arrehn
1 Average Dusky Graphite Airwhale
1 Large Dusky Ultramarine AVVV
1 Small none Evergreen Tyrlafiel
1 Enormous none Brown Sir Rigwald
1 Small none Water Blue PMAvers
1 Large Radiant Ruby Airwhale
1 Small Bright Ochre sdub
1 Enormous none Green robertzi7
1 Large Dusky Frost MisterSunshyne
1 Massive Dusky Cantaloupe balder
1 Large Dusky Iron rms2000
1 Small none Baby Pink Rysm
1 Small none Ice pawnhamster
1 Large Bright Onyx pawnhamster
1 Small none Shell pawnhamster
1 Small Dusky Baby Blue Axiom
1 Small none Cinnamon Thaddius1000
1 Average none Cinnamon barrettrees
1 Small Lucent Ochre Thaddius1000
1 Small none Bottle Green MisterSunshyne
1 Small Lucent Wine MisterSunshyne
1 Average Dusky Sand MisterSunshyne
1 Average Dusky Citrine VehpuS
1 Average Lucent Watermelon Linsaran
1 Average Dusky Cinnamon Linsaran
1 Small Starlike Copper Red
1 Small none Ice JadedDragoon
1 Staggering none Cinnamon ElvenAvariel
1 Small Dusky Ice Carl
1 Large none Royal Blue denngarr
1 Average none Berry Balder
1 Large Lucent Onyx Yshl
1 Large Dusky Red thriggle
1 Small Dusky Orange Raeden
1 Large Dusky Berry Calamitus
1 Small none Stormcloud JadedDragoon
1 Small Dusky Bubblegum PMAvers
1 Massive none Purple ripple
1 Small none Mahogany rms2000
1 Small none Grape rms2000
1 Small none Ocean ripple
1 Large none Lemon-lime Thaddius1000
1 Small none Tangerine Thaddius1000
1 Average none Peridot Thaddius1000
1 Average Titanic Green Linsaran
1 Massive none Gray ArtemisX
1 Large Radiant Gray Mr Awesome
1 Small none Pumpkin ripple
1 Average Lucent Shell TheEmperorsAngel
1 Monumental Bright Bubblegum Silverware
1 Small Dusky Yellow Windscion
1 Average Brilliant Cantaloupe Windscion
1 Small Dusky Cornflower Blue Windscion
1 Small none Peridot Windscion
1 Small Bright Lime thriggle
1 Average Dusky Army Green Carl
1 Average none Blood Korhedron
1 Massive Dusky Onyx Korhedron
1 Small none Shell Carl
1 Small none Amethyst rms2000
1 Small Dusky Pea rms2000
1 Average none Water Blue mikalyaran
1 Massive Dusky Grape Thaddius1000
1 Small none Watermelon rms2000
1 Average none Yellow rms2000
1 Average Lucent Spruce Thaddius1000
1 Average Titanic Chocolate JadedDragoon
1 Average Brilliant Peach rms2000
1 Staggering Dusky Peacock rms2000
1 Small none Bronze Zebio
1 Small none Spring Green MCQ
1 Average none Graphite MCQ
1 Large Bright Seaweed Thaddius1000
1 Small Dusky Sage NCommander
1 Large none Wine Cryptomancer
1 Gigantic Lucent Chocolate Cryptomancer
1 Small Dusky Watermelon Cryptomancer
1 Large none Turquoise Cryptomancer
1 Average Dusky Cotton Candy Cryptomancer
1 Small none Red Urchin
1 Small Lucent Burgundy Cryptomancer
1 Average Lucent Bronze The Rats
1 Large Dusky Shell Thaddius1000
1 Average none Canary Cryptomancer
1 Average Lucent Citrine Cryptomancer
1 Average Dusky Sapphire Urchin
1 Massive none Lavender Cryptomancer
1 Small Dusky Blood Cryptomancer
1 Small Dusky Grape The Rats
1 Average Dusky Grape Cryptomancer
1 Small none Stormcloud Cryptomancer
1 Small none Ruby Cryptomancer
1 Small Bright Plum Cryptomancer
1 Small Lucent Copper Cryptomancer
1 Small Lucent Ice Cryptomancer
1 Small Lucent Turquoise Cryptomancer
1 Small Dazzling Mist Eclison
1 Large Dusky Spring Green Urchin
1 Average none Cantaloupe Cryptomancer
1 Small none Bubblegum Cryptomancer
1 Large Radiant Ocean Cryptomancer
1 Small none Sand Cryptomancer
1 Average none Plum Cryptomancer
1 Average Dusky Yellow Urchin
1 Small none Violet The Rats
1 Enormous none Obsidian Urchin
1 Average Dusky Peach copperhamster
1 Massive none Watermelon copperhamster
1 Small Bright Teal copperhamster
1 Small Lucent Green copperhamster
1 Small none Water Blue copperhamster
1 Small none Berry jpa469
1 Small Dusky Strawberry jpa469
1 Average Lucent Aquamarine jpa469
1 Small Dusky Midnight TheEmperorsAngel
1 Large Dusky Frost mrnegativity78
1 Small none Cotton Candy copperhamster
1 Average none Beige copperhamster
1 Average Bright Teal copperhamster
1 Small none Honey Urchin
1 Average none Mist Urchin
1 Large none Yellow Storel
1 Large Lucent Shell Storel
1 Large Dusky Malachite Storel
1 Small none Ice Sereg
1 Gigantic Bright Turquoise Sereg
1 Massive Brilliant Malachite Cryptomancer
1 Average Brilliant Onyx Cryptomancer
1 Small Lucent Cornflower Blue Cryptomancer
1 Large Lucent Citrine Cryptomancer
1 Average none Army Green Cryptomancer
1 Small Dusky Pearl Cryptomancer
1 Large none Onyx Cryptomancer
1 Small none Ochre Cryptomancer
ArchiveI'm moving a few parts of this document down here. They're interesting history that make people aware of the challenges posed initially in figuring some of this out that are no longer the case, like:
Did you know gem points weren't available information outside of the leaderboard?First spin vs subsequent spinsThere doesn't seem to be any notable difference, outside of the odds of success being 100% for the first spin. With that said, I am continuing to track it where available but don't have anything to report in terms of trends, etc.
Points - Working Theory - Development[spoiler]This is evolving quickly and seems to be nearing completion. Here's the current, and it's held up on all test cases (over fifteen now) where I've been provided detailed information on the gems someone has. It can accurately collect their point total.
Quick update:
Bandaid has the most complex gem group so far that I've had access to, with seven different gems and a known point total (91), so I used it to test and refine the formula.
Code:
# Size Glow Color
============================
1 Large Lucent Pearl
1 Large none Blood
1 Large none Ocean
1 Massive none Green
1 Small Bright Aquamarine
1 Small Bright Periwinkle
1 Small Dusky Cotton Candy
After some adjustments, here's the new predicted point theory. It's almost complete:
Size:
Code:
Small x 35 - 1^2 = 1
Average x 16 - 2^2 = 4
Large x 13 - 3^2 = 9
Massive x 9 - 4^2 = 16
Enormous x3 - 5^2 = 25
Gigantic x 4 - 6^2 = 36
*???? x 0 - 7^2 = 49
Monumental x 2 - 8^2 = 64
Colossal x 1 - 9^2 = 81
* At this point I've confirmed point values for all of these sizes except the mythical level 7 ???? size class. It's still not know if 10+ size class gems exist and, if so, their size names.
Glow:
Code:
None x 32 = +0
Dusky x 19 = +4 (2^2)
Lucent x 9 = +9 (3^2)
Bright x 7 = +16 (4^2)
Brilliant x 7 = +25 (5^2)
Radiant x 4 = +36 (6^2)
Dazzling x 3 = +49 (7^2)
Starlike x 1 = +64 (8^2)
Crown Jewel x 1 = +81 (9^2)
Note that the N for glows now lines up perfectly with the observed values, as expected if the data set grows and the model is correct. I'm 100% confident in the glow scale now. And the Predicted level 9 glow finally showed!
The values from the above tables explain all of the gems that I know the points of so far.

What's really exciting about this is I Predicted we're missing an entire size class and glow level already, and the glow prediction panned out! I did some probability math and decided that the missing size category was much more likely to be seven (
Glow seems to function for points in the same way as size. Having had the relative glow values out of order complicated figuring that out, but now it seems to be in the right line.

Gem Value = [size level] (1-9)^2 + [glow level] (1-9)^2
Current theoretical max point from a single gem would be a colossal crown jewel gem coming in at 162 points!
Thank you everyone who's been participating in this thread! We've learned a lot and wouldn't have without your involvement!
Now that we have established the size/glow probabilities within a reasonable margin of error, I will likely be updating the main post at a much lower frequency. I intend to revamp the front end here to be more informative piece than it is now, and move a lot of the history into a Spoiler-blocked Archive of sorts.
If there were a single thread and post I'd ask that you make sure to enter, it's the end-of-the-month screengrab of all the gems you've mined for the month. That's a huge data dump and easier to process. Right now, for instance, this thread has collected over 225 unique gems, while the end-of-March data dump thread acquired over 400!
Again, thank you all for the input!