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 Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:43 pm 
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Anomynous 167 wrote:
SirHamster wrote:
Quote:
Charlie says Parson Gotti has tunnels below the world, sent Jojo.
He must have dug beneath the tunnel the same way he did to nab his Bone-a-mancer back. This was a coordinated strike! Perhaps he'll try for the other prisoners next! Or the guns, or...


On the flip side, MK dusting Stanley's army *is* cause for war and invasion. I'm rather rooting for him myself. Go bold or go home!

How does that make any sense? They couldn't have dusted Stanley's army if he didn't invade the Magic Kingdom in the first place.


Do you think dusting an army counts as material harm?

Do you think dusting an army is escalation, or de-escalation? Justified escalation is still escalation. And that's war. Escalation until conflicting interests are resolved.

As proof of this concept, imagine saying what you just said to Stanley. Does it make him any less likely to invade MK? Takes all for peace and only one for war.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:21 pm 
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    Vendanna wrote:
    paskal wrote:
    So it is not a bot, but someone is copy pasting stuff, and somehow messed it up even that brainless act?


    Why you quote a bot? do you know that replying to one will automatically "activate it" and that one will activate and bring even more to the forum?

    all bots have active the "inform me with a mail if someone replied to me." and once they get the email it will spam non stop. Its how most of those operate.

    oh no! i didn't know, should i edit my post and erase the name of the bot? or should I delete my post?

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:44 pm 
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    paskal wrote:
    oh no! i didn't know, should i edit my post and erase the name of the bot? or should I delete my post?


    that's irrelevant, once you have replied to it, the damage is already done. but now you know how they operate in case you ever find a bot on other forums you visit.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:58 pm 
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    Anomynous 167 wrote:
    Because the hat isn't big enough to fit fifty odd gems in it worth 500k each.



    The molls weren't putting the gems into a bag of holding. They were putting them into a teleportation device. No 'fitting them all' required.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:06 pm 
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    OneHugeTuck wrote:
    Anomynous 167 wrote:
    Metallicat wrote:

    Still, I think that Claud's whole discussion about how Charlie can remote operate dolls in ways that even dollamancers can't necessarily do suggests that he probably could have made them activate the sending function. But maybe Skyy's attack stopped them from doing that. Why send one at a time when you can just hit "send" when the hat is full?

    Because the hat isn't big enough to fit fifty odd gems in it worth 500k each.



    The molls weren't putting the gems into a bag of holding. They were putting them into a teleportation device. No 'fitting them all' required.

    What difference does it make? It can't fit 50 gems inside it all at once. Metallicat was insinuating a one-time transaction.

    And ofcourse it ain't a 'bag of holding', it's a hat, 'of wearing'.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:19 pm 
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    Anomynous 167 wrote:
    What difference does it make? It can't fit 50 gems inside it all at once. Metallicat was insinuating a one-time transaction.

    And ofcourse it ain't a 'bag of holding', it's a hat, 'of wearing'.


    Many items in Erfworld can be resized. We have no reason to think all the gems couldn't fit inside that hat. We know the gems went in the hat. Everything else is speculation. We didn't see the Molls say "Hoffa," we didn't see Charlie say "Livingston." We don't know if Molls are capable of activating hat magic. We didn't see a cascade of resized gems cascading down on Skyy's head, Captain Kangaroo style. And Skyy didn't mention finding them, when she got the items that Parson sent.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:49 am 
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    Charlie can use magic items trough dolls using powered connection:
    Quote:
    With a powered connection and restrictive degree of concentration, he could sort of inhabit a Charlescomm golem unit move it around use its limited senses, even use magic items.

    And when Bill asked Charles about the gems, he said "Sh. In negotiations.Can't talk." In the middle of that negotiation, he lost the power to his connection.

    My theory is Charlie was trying to figure out what are those gems, whether they belong to TV or not. Because if they were they might trigger a penalty. So he put them into the hat, but not send them. He might have carnied it a bit so that it could hold more than it should. He might have planned to order Bill to say the magic word when the time comes, or he might just carnied the rule in any number of ways in his favor.
    But he suddenly lost the power to his dish, thus the ability to use the hat. So the gems might have stuck in the hat. This is not a problem, because gems are automagically converted according to signamancy, and if they really want them they could hire a hat magician after problems resolved.
    Hat magic is one of the frequent magics that we do not have any insight to. It will be a good excuse to learn about it.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:58 am 
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    Slowness wrote:
    Now, let's just say he grabs the Arkenpliers, who's personality matches Wanda's in a cold and calculating, subjugate everyone sort of way, and a sort of arrogance that can cause tactical blunders, I don't think it's going to like talking to him. Said arrogance may lead it to try consulting a peer in The Arkenhammer to avoid talking to Stanley, without it considering just why the hammer is attuned to him anyway. The end result being some wierd oddcouple tool-on-the-shoulder "don't listen to the other guy!" conversations & arguments, as the Arkenpliers trying to manipulate Stanley into some long term personal goal is sidelined by Stanely's perfect personality pairing with his lead-from-the-front, shock and awe inspiring, most ludicrously awesome & immediately gratifying option always wins, who the heck cares if it's tactically sound if it is far out & radical, rule of cool random insanity hammer constantly tells him cool new ways he can blow stuff up.

    I forsee much confusion in the very immediate future if Stanley's hammer gets awakened.

    Now I'm picturing the Arkenhammer with the personality of Lilarcor.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:14 am 
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    paskal wrote:
    Charlie can use magic items trough dolls using powered connection:
    Quote:
    With a powered connection and restrictive degree of concentration, he could sort of inhabit a Charlescomm golem unit move it around use its limited senses, even use magic items.

    And when Bill asked Charles about the gems, he said "Sh. In negotiations.Can't talk." In the middle of that negotiation, he lost the power to his connection.

    My theory is Charlie was trying to figure out what are those gems, whether they belong to TV or not. Because if they were they might trigger a penalty. So he put them into the hat, but not send them. He might have carnied it a bit so that it could hold more than it should. He might have planned to order Bill to say the magic word when the time comes, or he might just carnied the rule in any number of ways in his favor.
    But he suddenly lost the power to his dish, thus the ability to use the hat. So the gems might have stuck in the hat. This is not a problem, because gems are automagically converted according to signamancy, and if they really want them they could hire a hat magician after problems resolved.
    Hat magic is one of the frequent magics that we do not have any insight to. It will be a good excuse to learn about it.


    This would fit in with the "What have you done?" conversation between Charlie and Bill that follows - it's not that Bill disobeyed orders, which Charlie should almost have expected given his demonstrated insight into how nuts Bill is, it's possibly that Charlie's plan to put the gems into holding - secured but not fully stolen - was derailed by Bill's recklessness.

    Units screwing up is a management problem. Charlie's well used to farms and Etsies etc. as teaching opportunities. 25 mil going West is something Charlie would take seriously.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:32 am 
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    Everybody seems to be hearing zebras.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y9C3-DCrjM

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:37 am 
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    Ok here Charlie talks to Shirley, and clearly states he took the gems. There is no reason for him to lie, and Shirley could fact-check this information probably. So yeah the gems are gone.

    On the other hand, I like zebras so I want to believe gems still might be in TV :cry:

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:28 am 
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    seanfish wrote:
    I think it means the jewels definitely weren't sent. It's a classic Balder hint - a title that seems to refers to Parson's analogy but by innocuously leaving out one word it turns "left the tv" into "left TV".


    Seems much more like a classic Balder typo. He makes them a lot.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:03 pm 
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    Lipkin wrote:
    Everybody seems to be hearing zebras.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y9C3-DCrjM


    Occam's razor in a nutshell. Think I'm going to hold on to that video.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:10 pm 
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    JadedDragoon wrote:
    Lipkin wrote:
    Everybody seems to be hearing zebras.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y9C3-DCrjM


    Occam's razor in a nutshell. Think I'm going to hold on to that video.


    The problem with Occam's razor is it is a heuristic which is not always working. My favourite example in medicine is rabies diagnosis:
    Quote:
    “There were many confounding factors that led to why rabies wasn’t recognized in this patient,” Blanton said. “First and foremost is the fact that rabies is a rare disease in the United States, and it’s not the go-to diagnosis.”

    (from https://www.healio.com/infectious-disea ... or-concern)

    Same was in case of Jeanna Giese.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:33 pm 
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    abukaj wrote:
    JadedDragoon wrote:
    Lipkin wrote:
    Everybody seems to be hearing zebras.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y9C3-DCrjM


    Occam's razor in a nutshell. Think I'm going to hold on to that video.


    The problem with Occam's razor is it is a heuristic which is not always working. My favourite example in medicine is rabies diagnosis:
    Quote:
    “There were many confounding factors that led to why rabies wasn’t recognized in this patient,” Blanton said. “First and foremost is the fact that rabies is a rare disease in the United States, and it’s not the go-to diagnosis.”

    (from https://www.healio.com/infectious-disea ... or-concern)

    Same was in case of Jeanna Giese.

    "The problem with 'usually' is that it isn't 'always.'"


    The existence of rare things doesn't disprove Occam's Razor.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:50 pm 
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    Lipkin wrote:
    "The problem with 'usually' is that it isn't 'always.'"


    The existence of rare things doesn't disprove Occam's Razor.

    My point is: it is just a useful heuristic. Not a hard proof (as it is usually presented).

    In a decision making process you need to take into account other factors than conditional probability, like cost/gain associated with a given hypothesis.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:52 pm 
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    abukaj wrote:
    Lipkin wrote:
    "The problem with 'usually' is that it isn't 'always.'"


    The existence of rare things doesn't disprove Occam's Razor.

    My point is: it is just a useful heuristic. Not a hard proof (as it is usually presented).

    In a decision making process you need to take into account other factors than conditional probability, like cost/gain associated with a given hypothesis.


    Yep, Occam's Razor is a method of discarding the unlikely, neither proof or disproof. It's a way of examining reality based on reasonable hunches. It's really well explored in "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance."

    Here's the thing. Erfworld is a work of fiction. My reasonable hunch is about Rob's writing style, not Erfworld itself. I'm not looking at a zebra when I'm speculating about something that happened in a world in which a godlike mindmeld just brought a pair of necromantic pliers to life. Occam's Razor is the least useful tool for examining "what's gone on". It certainly wouldn't have predicted the volcano, Jefftichew's secret identity, decryption, tutelaries etc., etc., etc.

    Leaving aside someone's comment about "Balder's typos" - which might apply to body text but wouldn't ever apply to a heading - there's a strong hint in there at least to some readings. I'm using Occam's Razor to favour that hint over the mishmash of conflicting possibilities that are being discussed above. Rob has used foreshadowing hints before. The apparent mistype here is not a mistype, as it is in a key location for copy editing... and I don't even know if Erfworld has zebras.

    Please, don't apply the line of least improbability to a fantasy world. Occam was not made for this discussion.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:15 pm 
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    SirHamster wrote:
    Brother Mirtillo wrote:
    Just to be sure -- by "MK dusting Stanley's army," you're referring to the battle of Portal Park, right? Maybe with a side order of prematurely executing Sean and two Archons?

    As painful as those were, and as unpopular with this fanbase as the barbarian casters are, I wouldn't call any of that justification for war and invasion. Then again, I'm fidgety about justifying any war, but I'll stick to this one for the moment.


    Yes, that battle.

    Deliberate destruction of a faction's army is cause for war. When two sides both gain causes for war, they don't simply cancel out.

    The MK felt invaded and violated. Cause for war. GK deployed an army for protection, and that army was destroyed and important units arrested and executed. Cause for war.

    Those causes add up and spark escalation. A diplomat may be able to locate and cultivate common interests to make peace, and the diplomat can argue that the causes for war cancel out, but that only creates peace if both sides accept it. Sometimes the underlying conflict make war completely unavoidable.

    Ah, right you are. I got onto a different tack by replacing "cause for war" with "justification for war" -- using "justification" in what I'd hoped was an objective and universally-moral sense. Fat chance of pinning that down, but it was worth a shot.

    I still don't think anyone here was or is objectively justified in declaring war, but in their minds? Yes, they do feel justified. "Cause for war" has most definitely been achieved. I just wish that the effects of war didn't become new causes, but oh well, here we are anyway, and it's still going. Like it or lump it, etc., etc.

    Hmm... that bit about diplomacy... I wonder if the Hippies have tried other methods of protesting war pre-canon? Also, I wonder how serious Tramennis was about critiquing the need for war and pain and suffering. Even if one had the combined diplomatic expertise of Janis and Tramennis, would that be enough to totally stop a war? (...Maybe some other Hippie besides Janis; her name might be mud with the Mudmancers.)

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:02 pm 
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    It's not a typo. It's not a hint. It's a play on words. A joke.

    Like pretty much every other page title.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 4 - Page 184
     Post Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:31 pm 
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    Lipkin wrote:
    It's not a typo. It's not a hint. It's a play on words. A joke.

    Like pretty much every other page title.


    Well of course.

    My stance is that it is a very clear hint and while more longstanding users have let me know we are discouraged from betting schmuckers (so I won't) I'm prepared to bet whatever portion of my reputation applies that the jewels have not... left TV. Just like it says.

    How and why and are they in the hat? I have no idea. I simply know that I haven't seen a table in Charlescomm piled high with the booty or any other clear indicator as to where the jewels currently are.

    And you haven't answered my comments about your talk of Occam's Razor and zebras and how they in no way apply in an epic fantasy narrative, which is a huuuuuuge point.

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