I have also forgotten my really old bet (since we have passed 2 books in a blink) which I probably have lost by now.

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Retconjuration Competition,This is Sparta! Competition <- events Closed.

It's allies about the hair Contest <- Extended until 1st March..

I'll go through and bring the totals up to date.

I think one of the problems is that things have been so off-the-wall lately that it's more obvious than usual how useless it is to speculate.

Vendanna, it seems like your bets all expire at the end of book 4, which hasn't happened yet.

Shashakiro, you won one (RVC croaked) and lost one (Vanna was a living TV unit).

My prediction for what Charlie will do.

Assumptions:
1. He wants to appear to be a good guy to his temple.
2. He wants to maintain a good relationship with other sides (damage control).
3. He wants to pop the royal heir.

1 and 3 combine to say that he wants the side to continue. So he has to prevent Bill from killing Caesar.

He is in negotiation. So here is my proposed idea of his negotiation:

He disbands Bill.

This also has the benefit of preventing an uncontrollable wildcard from knowing the size of his treasury.

This helps his public image; he is able to say that Bill's actions were not Charlie's plan; he shows that he is not interested in wiping out a neighboring side; he is aiding the cause of Royals; etc.

He has a lot of Royal sides near him. He has a 100 turn unilateral contract out against him. If Transilvito were to start to attack him, he would have a hard time defending himself. The worst thing he wants is for a cloud of bats to come in and attack; the million Shmucker penalty per bat would allow them to breed more bats. Transilvito could wipe Charlie out just by attrition.

Charlie's number one goal is to survive the next hundred turns. That means he has to avoid enemies that are out to get him.

Hey, he might even give back half of the gems he took.

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Milestone Goal 5: Linda gets healthy again.

(... Help me assemble my army for the great war, your donations will give an army of dwagons a good home against the army of darkness ... not as important.)

So here's a prediction on the threads. We have seen threads for juice, for upkeep, etc.; we've seen that the threads connecting to units can be cut, or reattached.

But what is at the other end?

Let's say you were to attach threads for motion, life, upkeep, etc. to a unit. Where does the other end of those threads go?

Up until very recently, we didn't know. But after Jed's little tricks, I think we are at the point where it would be possible to attach these threads to a doll (or similar), and attach the other end to something that would act as a source.

In effect, I think we're at the point where Dr. Frankenstein would be able to bring it to life, give it motion, and have it pay upkeep.

So will Dr. Frankenstein wind up being Wanda, Bill, or someone else?

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Milestone Goal 5: Linda gets healthy again.

(... Help me assemble my army for the great war, your donations will give an army of dwagons a good home against the army of darkness ... not as important.)

We actually know where they connect to, as is described in the beginning of "Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower)". The great equilibrium of the plane of Zero!

But the important question stands: Was there a bet in there somewhere?

I am just making predictions right now. I have given up trying to make a bet. But if you care to turn my ramblings into a coherent bet, go right ahead.

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Milestone Goal 5: Linda gets healthy again.

(... Help me assemble my army for the great war, your donations will give an army of dwagons a good home against the army of darkness ... not as important.)

50 q: Wanda will be decrypted by sentient pliers before the end of the book

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Milestone Goal 5: Linda gets healthy again.

(... Help me assemble my army for the great war, your donations will give an army of dwagons a good home against the army of darkness ... not as important.)

20q. It will be a Dirtamancer who will next find and pick up the Arkenpliers.

100q that the gems are still in TV as at book 3 p. 329 as per my reading of the hint in the title. Yes I'm new to the game and I'm betting the lot. OH THE FOLLY.

I take that bet. This could get interesting.

Nice - I'm fully basing it off a reading of the title as a cryptic crossword-style hint coupled with a familarity with Rob's storytelling - time after time if we haven't seen for sure something's happened it'll turn out it hasn't, or hasn't necessarily. There's a lot of byplay about it in the reactions thread with the usual speculations. My speculation is that Rob Balder is a wily so-and-so and has been so for a long time now.

I can't offer a time frame - my personal hunch is that we'll know by the end of this turn or the beginning of the next one. Can we take it as it's resolved after definitive proof or disproof?

Yeah, that works. Eventually, I think it will be clear that Charlie did steal those gems - either he will confirm it, or it will come up in negotiations. And of course if I'm wrong, and you are right, that should come up too.

Added new bet, resolved one.

I think we have evidence for this one, but I can't remember for sure - anyone know off the top of their heads? The evidence may only apply to state 7.