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 Post subject: Book 3 - Page 28
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:51 am 
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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:04 am 
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    Very cool exchange

    So is this still the deal of a lifetime, forcing Charlie's hand to save FAQ? It seems to me
    Charie is bluffing. What are his penalties, should he forfeit the deal?

    Or has it something to do with "Jillian is fate's pawn. If she dies, there will be a new one,
    with a new jester, that he would have to again eliminate somehow?

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:16 am 
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    So Charlie has internet connection? I knew it!

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:23 am 
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    So what do we think? Parson turns Charlie down, goes to war, beats Charlie, then finds out "Woops! Charlie was right! There is a more important enemy that Parson now has to face!"

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:36 am 
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    It sounds like a bluff. I mean, Charlie does have the air-power to do whatever he wants. The number of Archons he lost at GK was less than he got back during the turns until this point. He can end a side if he wants leverage.

    But he is either spread too thin or still needs more time to prepare. Parson has done enough to already be Top of the List. His presence single-handedly soured Charlie's already sketchy reputation on some of his most profitable clients in his immediate area.

    I'm curious why he needs Jillian though. It can't be the Deal of a Lifetime still, otherwise it'd be something that would already have been in effect when Stanley ended the side.

    Oh, and I'm a teensy bitty bothered by the prevalence of newer memes showing up in Erfworld. As indirect references, fine, but Parson himself using them deliberately... I remember when he was transported. These weren't around back them. Heck, you could hardly even say it passed enough time for them to be created, if 1 turn is roughly a day, but this point could be hand-waved.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:48 am 
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    So is schmuckers denoted with $? I think that is a first.

    And piece of canon map and some more numbers on combat strenght. That is exciting.

    Compensation, getting out of future calculations, the technical details on JoJo's spell and other reasonable demands Parson can throw in there. That is reasonable. Except this is Charlie...

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:03 am 
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    About the Archon, Charlie is lying, because Jetstone has already contractually commited to deliver her to him, thus Charlie would be perfectly capable of giving her back to GK.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:05 am 
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    Hmm, very interesting. Charlie could be bluffing, but suppose he isn't?

    Not only would he be willing to forego defeating Parson. He'd also be willing to forego getting his hands on the Arkenhammer. One of the four known Arkentools! What would be worth that?

    My guess?

    Spoiler: show
    He's received a Prediction about another Arkentool re-popping. Parson already knows Arkentools can re-pop at random in razed cities. Does he want the Arkenshoes? Is this all about him getting back home? Then why not use that scroll he wrote for Parson? Unless that spell does not work (or cannot work for him).

    He might not want the Arkenhammer after all, though. The Dish makes him very powerful, but adding the Hammer to that might just make him a target, make every side band together to defeat him.

    He seems to want Jillian alive. Or at least, Faq. At least for now. Things might change once the heir is popped.
    Why an heir? Why not just finance promoting a warlord? Jillian would probably not care about Royalty. Apparently he needs a noble. And not Jillian. A King of Faq? Jillian might want to watch her back once an heir pops...

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:36 am 
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    No no no no. This is all wrong. I'm really confused now... Charlie priorities should be on Parson. The Thinkamancers, Hippiemancers, and Predicatamancers are all gunning for him and they wanted Parson. What could be higher on his list? Something scary if Charlie considers it a bigger threat... I don't like this...

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:51 am 
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    Wow , just wow. So many questions.

    What display are we looking at here? Is that Parson's view of the situation, complete with odds calculation from his bracer? How come the leadership, unit power and bonus/penalty are additive? Isn't leadership supposed to be a multiplier?

    Is Charlie bluffing? I think it's a semi-bluff.
    He probably has enough airpower from archons to seriously hurt any side. He may already have some iveiled and in position at GW, so its entirely possible that he can croak Stanley if the Tool heads back to GW. However, Charlie's MO is negotiation, not obliteration. If he starts taking out sides with overwhelming airpower it will become obvious that he is an existential threat, and he doesn't want that. Also, that would leave Parson alive and dangerous in the MK, so he'd really rather use the threat as leverage, just as he did with Hagar

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:07 am 
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    Well, there's a few possibilities here:

    1) Charlie is simply outright lying about Parson not being his top priority here; the point of all this is to beat Parson, and all of this helps to beat Parson. Parson should ask his bracer whether or not this deal is to his own advantage.

    2) Charlie is still contractually bound to FAQ.

    3) Charlie is bluffing about killing Stanley; Stanley, for all the power that being an attuned wielder of the Arkhenhammer represents, not only is a pain to get rid of, but also a pain for Parson to deal with. Charlie doesn't want to kill Stanley because it would either result in Parson going barbarian like casters apparently can do or, worse still, Parson taking over the side. Parson's upkeep is extremely high and no one knows his stats; it is possible that Parson is the heir of his side (after all, a truly perfect warlord would probably reduce the strategic deficiencies of his side as much as possible, which may well include being heir themselves, so that if his ruler falls, he can take over and keep the side up - and possibly make it even more powerful because now there is no one between him and power). Charlie may either know that he is heir, or simply be unwilling to take the risk of removing whatever power Stanley holds over him.

    4) Charlie can't kill Stanley right now; his threat on Hagar meant that he is spread too thin in the local area with his arcons now to bail out the Queen. Because Stanley surrounds himself with dwagons, and dwagons are likely more than a match for archons one on one, it may be very hard for Charlie to actually eliminate Stanley in general.

    5) There is indeed some other issue which Charlie is dealing with of which we are presently unaware.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:48 am 
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    Thecommander236 wrote:
    No no no no. This is all wrong. I'm really confused now... Charlie priorities should be on Parson. The Thinkamancers, Hippiemancers, and Predicatamancers are all gunning for him and they wanted Parson. What could be higher on his list? Something scary if Charlie considers it a bigger threat... I don't like this...

    That's cuz his enemy is not Fate, it is a big Retconjuration line starting in the future that he is trying to stop from happening... Terrifying thought because it means that someone popped who felt all these units messed up so he is going back and editing, but Charlie is trying to change things so that everyone doesn't get Retconned out of existence (my pet tin foil hat theory. I have been nurturing it some time and support it more each time Charlie talks).

    peteratjet wrote:
    Wow , just wow. So many questions.

    What display are we looking at here? Is that Parson's view of the situation, complete with odds calculation from his bracer? How come the leadership, unit power and bonus/penalty are additive? Isn't leadership supposed to be a multiplier?


    What makes you think those are additive?

    Leadership: FAQ 56 and GK 66. Those look multiplicative to me... otherwise they could not get that high with only Stanley and the cute new warlord, plus Parson's CWL bonus. Has to be multiplicative or GK would be at like 14 tops (Stanley 11, total guess+New Warlord 2-3, also a guess, but reasonable+CWL bonus 1, Parson is level 2 and so his bonus at distance is tiny.)

    Unit power: Might make sense as additive, being just a raw number. Other times that map would show Side 1 with massive leadership and a low unit power and Side 2 with limited leadership but a thousand unit power.

    Bonuses and Penalties: Numbers don't look very multiplicative, but it could be two sets of bonuses: (Hammer x Height) + (Fighting against incapped enemy). Or something.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:58 am 
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    It's official, Jillian Sue has made Charlie fall madly in love with her. Or just mad.

    For what other reason would Charlie be so desesperate to save her ass? Money, giving up his remaining calculations, peace deal, revealing the scroll's secret, Charlie is the one usually leading the negotiations.

    Meh, probably more fate mumbo jumbo. C'mon Charlie, I expected better than that from you.

    At least, this update should silence all the people going on about how Charlie was trying to pull some kind of reverse psychology "Yes Hamster, now I shall manipulate you into killing Jillian, that I was fully supporting a moment ago, and that you already have 99 reasons to want dead anyway!"

    Still I don't think that Charlie's bluffing at the end. Normally Charlie's main priority is Charlie himself. Moar archons. Moar money. Moar power. He could've probably just rallied and deployed his archon fleet to storm GK before, but Stanley and his dwagons wouldn't go down easily. Charlie would've suffered tremendous losses. His reputation would be hurt pretty badly as well if word came out he was attacking sides on his own now. It would set Charlie back hundreds, perhaps thousands of turns. That's why he's been fighting a proxy war so far. Let some other idiots sacrifice their meat fodder to weaken Hamster into a more manageable state.

    But if Jillian is so important to Charlie for whatever reason, then he may just throw subtelty out of the window and join the "heavy air force" style if GK takes her out now.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:20 am 
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    So ... take the deal or not? Whaddaya say?

    I say "take". Bend Charlie over and take him for everything we can, then let him have Jillian and her side.

    Why?

    Having just read "Peace through Superior Firepower" I think Parson's real enemy is the gameworld, specifically , Fate. Fate gave him the sword of ruthlessness, and he threw it away.

    The real enemy in Erfworld is the world itself -- Fate. And Charlie's fighting it. "The only enemy worth fighting", he says.

    Y'know what? I agree with him.

    Which means this other stuff is a distraction.

    Which means that Wanda, Stanley, Charley ALL have roles to play, ALIVE, as attuned wielders of the arkentools . And Jillian is wrapped up right in the middle of this.

    So the most important thing is to keep our various gamepieces from killing each other until this all plays out.

    ETA: Part of my calculations is the assumption that Jillian is going to survive ANYWAY -- Fate kicking in -- so we can either have Jillian alive, on her side, and giving back all our cities and repair OR we can have Jillian alive, and allied with Charlie who has just decided to make our elimination his #1 priority.

    I don't believe Gk is ready to annihilate Charlescomm, so we should defer that battle until we have a lot more intelligence on him, what his motives are , and who he's fighting. It may be that the endgame will have Charlie and the other attuned arkentool wielders collaborating to remake the world -- to become the new Titans -- and it is Parson's job to facilitate this.

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.


    Last edited by pendell on Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:21 am 
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    CarniDollMancer wrote:
    Thecommander236 wrote:
    No no no no. This is all wrong. I'm really confused now... Charlie priorities should be on Parson. The Thinkamancers, Hippiemancers, and Predicatamancers are all gunning for him and they wanted Parson. What could be higher on his list? Something scary if Charlie considers it a bigger threat... I don't like this...

    That's cuz his enemy is not Fate, it is a big Retconjuration line starting in the future that he is trying to stop from happening... Terrifying thought because it means that someone popped who felt all these units messed up so he is going back and editing, but Charlie is trying to change things so that everyone doesn't get Retconned out of existence (my pet tin foil hat theory. I have been nurturing it some time and support it more each time Charlie talks).

    peteratjet wrote:
    Wow , just wow. So many questions.

    What display are we looking at here? Is that Parson's view of the situation, complete with odds calculation from his bracer? How come the leadership, unit power and bonus/penalty are additive? Isn't leadership supposed to be a multiplier?


    What makes you think those are additive?

    Leadership: FAQ 56 and GK 66. Those look multiplicative to me... otherwise they could not get that high with only Stanley and the cute new warlord, plus Parson's CWL bonus. Has to be multiplicative or GK would be at like 14 tops (Stanley 11, total guess+New Warlord 2-3, also a guess, but reasonable+CWL bonus 1, Parson is level 2 and so his bonus at distance is tiny.)

    Unit power: Might make sense as additive, being just a raw number. Other times that map would show Side 1 with massive leadership and a low unit power and Side 2 with limited leadership but a thousand unit power.

    Bonuses and Penalties: Numbers don't look very multiplicative, but it could be two sets of bonuses: (Hammer x Height) + (Fighting against incapped enemy). Or something.
    Minor correction. Parson is level 3. He leveled at Spacerock. The bracer told him when he was trying to figure if he could cast the scroll.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:24 am 
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    Charlie might be bluffing, he might not be, but there's still an obvious strategic play: Capture Jillian.
    It shouldn't be difficult. They have overwhelming odds and she's incacipitated, and wouldn't contribute that much to the battle anyways. Parson can just wipe out her ground forces, then get Stanley mount up his knights and wipe out the air force, maybe leaving a few to grab Jillian.

    Even if Charlie DOES have the air power to wipe out Stanley, he's off turn right now and wouldn't be able to bring it into play until his turn. Even if he can end their turn again somehow (which I doubt - Vanna is low on juice and Charlie has spent a bit too), they can probably grab Jillian before her army can flee, which would force them to continue the battle to rescue her. And even off turn, they'd be able to see him coming and execute Jillian before he does anything. In that case, the best Charlie can do is show up with his air force and then force them to let Jillian go.
    And if he's bluffing, they can do whatever they want with her.

    That's said, I think Charlie is only half bluffing. He doesn't have the air power right now, but he does have a massive air fleet of archons armed with advanced shockamancy. Normally they're doing mercenary work to pay upkeep, but he's got a large treasury and he can free up enough of them to create problems for Parson. How many he can free up depends on how many Schmuckers he's willing to throw into this war, which means it really isn't ideal to move up his priority list even for people who are already pretty high on it.

    That said, while they have every reason to capture, attempting to capture Jillian instead of croaking her has created problems for them before.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:32 am 
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    Lipkin wrote:
    So what do we think? Parson turns Charlie down, goes to war, beats Charlie, then finds out "Woops! Charlie was right! There is a more important enemy that Parson now has to face!"


    That is my bet, I would bet myself against every other forum member 100 of my Q to 1 of theirs in the predictamancy thread that this is where it is going, I am that sure of it.

    If I had any Q, stupid Charlie doing the predictable thing.

    I would double down wait no I would go Go 100,000 to 1 on that bet if we include Wanda siding with the "more important enemy" in that.

    Edit : ooh no strike through code..


    Last edited by ryuplaneswalker on Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:39 am 
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    Wow. the idea that charlie might be bound by some other deal was always a likely possibility given his actions to date. But the idea that Parson and co aren't his number one priority. wo words:

    Oh Crap.

    Also can anyone make sense of those figure's. been trying to work out the leadership figure for FAQ and i can't make it come out at a sensible number as their remaining warlord is a 3 and Duncan is either a 2 or a 3 bonus depending on what he's giving, and Jillian if she's getting her own bonus is a 10. The figures refuse to add.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:46 am 
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    Jillian and Duncan are both incapacitated. Leadership bonuses fall to Vurp and the two or three other Faq warlords in the hex. The numbers probably indicate how much bonus is being given to units. A level two warlord should be giving 14 bonus points if they are in a stack of 7. 2 points to each unit in their stack. A level three will give 21, 3 to each unit. So that's 35ish. The Faq warlords must be running short on stack units as Vurp must be a 5 or 6 and should be giving 10-18 to his stack. 5 or 6 points per unit except maybe for Duncan because Duncan in incapacitated.

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    Last edited by Thecommander236 on Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 28
     Post Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:47 am 
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    Hooooly crap you guys, I just realized: I think Charlie is perfectly capable of following through on his threat. I don't think his plan is to somehow ambush Stanley on his way back to GWK, though: I think Charlie has an all-out assault on GWK waiting in the wings if Parson doesn't agree to this treaty.

    With what army? This one:
    http://archives.erfworld.com/Book%203/17

    See that huge army of gobwins under Charlescomm control? Assembled, as if ready to march somewhere as soon as their turn starts? Five facts to keep in mind:

    1) Part of Gobwin Knob's garrison is already fighting against them (the hobgobwins).

    2) We don't know how close those gobwins are to GWK, or what kind of movement-enhancing tricks Charlie might have.

    3) Gobwins get a considerable bonus in tunnel combat, shown extensively in B1

    4) Gobwin Knob's master-class dirtamancer is not there. In fact, ALL of their casters are in the Magic Kingdom.

    5) Stanley's dwagons, his most powerful remaining units, cannot enter the tunnels.

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