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 Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 11:35 pm 
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Arlor wrote:
It never occurred to me Parson could use the scroll on a target other than himself. Could he use it on Charlie?

I doubt the spell really works that way, otherwise Charlie would simply have cast it on Parson himself, instead of going through all this trouble to get Parson to do it.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 11:36 pm 
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    effataigus wrote:
    So, an annoying GM would react to the players' decisions by changing the gameworld such that the decisions resulted in the same outcome. Perhaps that was what we were seeing with the bracer resetting to zero repeatedly. The probability was high, but then fate said "nope, if you intend to cast that, then I'mma drop a beam on your head" and the probability dropped.

    Anyway, this might have been Charlie's real victory. He might know that Parson is fated to beat him, and Deus Ex will see to it that Parson does unless Parson also fights fate himself. No better way to make a player stubborn than to be heavy handed with GM manipulations, and now Charlie has made Parson see just how heavy handed Erfworld is willing to be.


    This. Fate also doesn't seem to play by the rules, or that it works consistently. People assume that the bracer works perfectly, but what's probably happening is that the bracer is calculating the probable odds that Parson is capable of casting the spell, which in turn would make him cast a spell, but then Fate kicks in, and those odds flip back to zero. The bracer probably calculates the initial 98 percent because he's capable of casting it until he actually casts it, and the bracer can't tell how to tease those two connected conditions apart.

    Also, I would like to point out that Parson understood immediately what the spell did, whereas Sizemore and Isaac (claimed) didn't. Is this because he's connected to the spell, a sign of his class, because he breaks the rules, or because he's just naturally good outside of his discipline (whatever that is)?

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 11:43 pm 
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    silverblob5 wrote:
    ManaCaster wrote:
    Arlor wrote:
    It never occurred to me Parson could use the scroll on a target other than himself. Could he use it on Charlie?

    Probably, but unless Charlie was brought to Erfworld by a similar spell, I doubt it would do anything.


    Maybe he could use it to recall Judy and the Arkenshoes, by cancelling their 'return to Stupidworld' effect? I don't see anything specifying where the target has to be when the scroll is cast on them, and the magic might be similar enough.

    The Carnymancy scroll specifically unlocks the spell binding Parson to Erfworld and flings him back. Even ignoring the fact that Judy isn't available to target, the Arkenshoes probably work in a very different manner. And even if that was something that could be dispelled, what exactly is going to bring Judy back to Erfworld? Lingering traces of her old summoning spell which will also be dispelled by said scroll?

    Joe22c. wrote:
    Also - Question: Why doesn't Parson ask the bracer what the probability is that the scroll will do "______"? E.g., "What is the probability that this scroll will actually return me to Earth?" Seems like a worthwhile thing to have asked this whole time...

    Upon opening the scroll, he didn't need to. His own caster sense enabled him to decipher the workings of the spell and told him exactly what it does. Which brings up another interesting question: Other casters couldn't decipher the spell, but Parson could in spite of the fact that he almost certainly isn't a Carnymancer. Is the ability to decipher any spell a power of Signamancy or whatever discipline Parson is?

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 12:14 am 
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    I'm pretty sure the bracer is just being very strict with the words "now" and "the/this". The reasoning would be that "now" and "this" fix a point in time which passes and then can't be recaptured or (perhaps more likely) the Carnymancy scroll is ever-shifting... it is always THE Carnymancy spell but only THIS Carnymancy spell for an instant. Rob even goes so far as to italicize here and now at one point to give us a clue!

    Q1: “Odds of: successfully casting the Carnymancy spell I’m touching.”
    A: (too many possibilities) specify conditions [here and now] and target [me] = X then 0.0

    Q2: “Odds of: me as a warlord, as I am, casting this Carnymancy spell, right here and now.”
    A: (apparently not needing a target this time) Y then 0.0

    Questions without the "now" qualifier and using "the" instead of "this" give sticky results. Then...

    Q3: “True/false: I could create conditions here and now that would give me non-zero odds of casting the Carnymancy spell.”
    A: T then switches to F

    Q4: “Odds of: me successfully casting a Dirtamancy spell to put out the fire.”
    A: Z

    Q5: “Odds of me casting this spell!”
    A: Z then 0.0

    Q6: "Again"
    A: V then 0.0

    Q7: “Run this same calculation ten times in a row. Go.”
    A: Flashing between 0.980104773 and 0.0

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 12:27 am 
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    drachefly wrote:
    Geordy wrote:
    What I find remarkable is that Parson doesnt give a damn about the units with him. If he manages to read that spell he goes *poof* leaving behind a sad Antium in a lethal inferno. Of course he has to take this way out but he could at least say goodbye to Antium and thank him for his deeds. ... Compare that to Tramennis - with a bleeding heart and huge empathy ... These sides are definitely of different quality.


    Not just the sides, but also the circumstances. Antium was someone Parson met a few minutes ago, who never properly chose to be on Parson's side. They happen to be in a 'moments from death' situation, and Parson indeed delayed too long even without a farewell, so yes, the clock was ticking. There was nothing left Parson could think of to save Antium at all, and he tried all of those first.


    I think it's the latter: Parson cannot currently save Antium or any of the other people present, regardless of how he feels about them.

    The hex is an inferno. They're trapped in the basement. Their turn is over. Even if they get out of the burning building, taking random damage for 'moving' all the while, they run into an invisible wall at the edge of the city. Antium and the infantry disband if they enter the MK. There's no unallied but willing party nearby that we know of who is able to give them a ride out of the hex.

    I may have missed some things, but nothing that would let them leave the hex. They are completely trapped. The portal should be opening soon but now Parson is unconscious. Antium and the others might have the sense of mind to throw him through the portal, but they're still trapped. The only real escape is putting out the fire with a dirtamancer, otherwise everyone dies in the end.

    All this is based on present knowledge, which is likely to change with future updates.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 12:43 am 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    The Carnymancy scroll specifically unlocks the spell binding Parson to Erfworld and flings him back. Even ignoring the fact that Judy isn't available to target, the Arkenshoes probably work in a very different manner. And even if that was something that could be dispelled, what exactly is going to bring Judy back to Erfworld? Lingering traces of her old summoning spell which will also be dispelled by said scroll?


    Eh, maybe I'm grasping at straws (since I'd really like to see how Parson and Judy would stack up against each other in person), but it doesn't seem definitive to me that the scroll is a 'cancel perfect warlord spell' spell. It could just be a general-use 'break a spell' spell, albeit a particularly powerful one, possibly crafted with the help of the Arkendish. I'll admit, the 'key' bit doesn't fit particularly well, but then again this is Parson's first time sensing these things, it could be more like a skeleton key to unlock many different spells, or maybe spells of a particular type, like say, sending units from one reality to another.

    Probably just wishful thinking on my part, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 12:52 am 
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    This is really interesting. I had thought that Stanley changed his mind awfully quickly, and was thinking that maybe Charlie had mind controlled him or something.

    But now it seems like Stanley, being a Tool of the Titans, especially, is being used by fate to rescue Parson, instead of having him read the scroll.

    Still wondering why Charlie was so desperate to have him read the scroll, instead of just dying. Maybe being a magnificent bastard, he knew his seeming desperation would be perceived by Parson, who would then interrogate the bracer, thus revealing how active (and heavy-handed) fate was being, in order to wake Parson up to the true powers acting behind-the-scenes?

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 12:59 am 
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    Stanley will save unconscious Parson and get a giant ego boost. I see Stanley reminding Parson of this.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 1:52 am 
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    Ansan Gotti wrote:
    Still wondering why Charlie was so desperate to have him read the scroll, instead of just dying. Maybe being a magnificent bastard, he knew his seeming desperation would be perceived by Parson, who would then interrogate the bracer, thus revealing how active (and heavy-handed) fate was being, in order to wake Parson up to the true powers acting behind-the-scenes?

    Parson dying would have been OK with Charlie, but Charlie already knows that Fate probably won't let Parson die. If Parson uses the scroll before Fate can arrange his rescue on the other hand, the Fate magic surrounding Parson will be unraveled, which also puts an end to the threat.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 3:54 am 
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    I think the culprit is definitely Fate. The way the calculation get changed a fraction of a second after the intial result each time Parson asks doesn't make sense if a person was responsible for it. It's obviously something automatic. What's more, it would've been a poor spell since Parson can see the 'real' result for a moment.

    The interesting conclusion is that Fate cannot intervene instantaniously to ensure its prediction. It takes it time to concoct an intervention. And it's an outside force that interfere with in-system prediction Mathemancy can provide. Also, since there's this short interval, a clever player can circumvent Fate (with Carnymancy for example) if he's quick enough.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 5:45 am 
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    Hm, an idea.

    The reason Parson can see the 98% number - where as Marie just predicts zeros for shooting down Olive - could be beacause that is the number he gets if he breaks the rules - in this instant the fate rule - like he broke the no cursing rule.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 5:49 am 
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    Phoenix1 wrote:
    I was kinda thinking it was because he specified "here and now". As in, that very place, at that very instant.

    Lacking time travel abilities, his chance of doing something in a specific moment in time falls to 0 once that moment has passed.

    I like this explanation the most.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 7:45 am 
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    Farfetcher wrote:
    I think the culprit is definitely Fate. The way the calculation get changed a fraction of a second after the intial result each time Parson asks doesn't make sense if a person was responsible for it. It's obviously something automatic. What's more, it would've been a poor spell since Parson can see the 'real' result for a moment.

    The interesting conclusion is that Fate cannot intervene instantaniously to ensure its prediction. It takes it time to concoct an intervention. And it's an outside force that interfere with in-system prediction Mathemancy can provide. Also, since there's this short interval, a clever player can circumvent Fate (with Carnymancy for example) if he's quick enough.


    This was my understsnding as well. There are two numbers because there are two true answers, depending on whether-or-not Parson can break fate. The first number is true if he can break fate, the second if not. The computer seems to be aware of this on some level and incorporates the fate calculations after a delay that permits Parson to view both numbers, assuming that is why there is a delay. It may also be that it simply takes extra time to calculate the effects of fate and the computer shows what it is "thinking" during the calculations. Either way there seems to be a tiny bit of wiggle room to beat fate.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 7:58 am 
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    rkyeun sir you've just won the topic.

    i hope you don't mind if i use this as a sig? :D

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 8:48 am 
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    98010 is a zip code in Black Diamond, WA. I've seen zip codes with an extra four digits. No idea how to look up the 4773 part. Google availed me nothing.

    Do we know where Parson is from? Surely he'd recognize his old zip code if that were it.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 9:11 am 
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    Masennus wrote:
    98010 is a zip code in Black Diamond, WA. I've seen zip codes with an extra four digits. No idea how to look up the 4773 part. Google availed me nothing.

    Do we know where Parson is from? Surely he'd recognize his old zip code if that were it.

    Just look up 98010-4773 and ignore the calculator result - but it's a little hard for him to have a WA zip code when he's supposed to be from Columbus, OH

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 9:36 am 
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    I'm thinking it's a "Rules Conflict": Perfect Warlord versus Fate.

    "Perfect Warlord" ruleset: This character could find holes in the rules that will allow it.

    Fate ruleset: Not if it makes a required Prediction impossible, it won't. Ah, just found something I can do within the rules that will stop this tomfoolery.

    Also, if this is a "Real-Time" calculator, it may be that Fate has to "find" a workaround and it takes a fraction of a second to "recalculate" with Fate Magic being the last calculation.

    I could see if Parson was walking around during his calculations, it would be, "floor's weak here, he'll fall through before casting the spell", then "embers can drop on the scroll here, ruining it", then "ah crap, just drop a beamon his head".

    Which could lead to some funny ... well, just imagine this was Parson and instead of a whistle, he was trying to cast this scroll:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... JDo#t=387s

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 9:52 am 
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    Oh, and does Love Magic beat Fate Magic? Perhaps if Parson had a girlfriend back home...

    Might have been why he was the "Perfect Warlord"... Nothing to pine for.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 11:06 am 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    Ansan Gotti wrote:
    Still wondering why Charlie was so desperate to have him read the scroll, instead of just dying. Maybe being a magnificent bastard, he knew his seeming desperation would be perceived by Parson, who would then interrogate the bracer, thus revealing how active (and heavy-handed) fate was being, in order to wake Parson up to the true powers acting behind-the-scenes?

    Parson dying would have been OK with Charlie, but Charlie already knows that Fate probably won't let Parson die. If Parson uses the scroll before Fate can arrange his rescue on the other hand, the Fate magic surrounding Parson will be unraveled, which also puts an end to the threat.


    Has anyone considered the fact that Charlie may not be a complete bastard? While Charlie isn't opposed to killing Parson in order to get rid of him, that he may have tried the method that wouldn't kill him first?

    Charlie is most certainly ruthless, but ruthless != vindictive.

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     Post Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 11:13 am 
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    Denar wrote:
    So he can cast, but Fate was going to make it physically impossible to cast that particular spell? Is what I'm getting.

    This is confirmation that he's a Caster, right?



    Wasn't the fact that Parson is a caster confirmed way back in book 1? (rummaging) ah, here it is:
    http://www.erfworld.com/book-1-archive/?px=%2F140.jpg

    That's a Grand Abbess Hippiemancer saying that too.

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