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 Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
 Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:42 am 
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Doctor Foreman wrote:
Beeskee wrote:
Doctor Foreman wrote:
List of things not shot down by that last update:
- Demoting himself and flying away on the dwagon


Sorry, no move. Without move, inferno.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant flying above the fire or to another zone.


That might work, but I was under the impression that an inferno fire ashed the entire hex, no matter where the units were they'd croak. I checked back at the post about the inferno fire, and realized that we don't yet have any solid proof of this, but I am guessing based on the volcano situation that everything gets croaked eventually. All the archons at TBFGK were killed by the eruption, so from what we have seen, Parson is equally screwed unless he either gets out or gets the fire out.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 1:32 am 
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    Magothys wrote:

    3. Units can be given order to turn, on the basis that it serves the Ruler's interest. Parson cannot give an order that leads to GK losing a handful of soldiers, some dwagons, and its Chief Warlord to a new side, especially a side that has every reasons not to ally with Gobwin Knob once it has been founded. In this regard the summing spell might prevent him to. In fact, I don't think he can turn barbarian even if all GK's unit around were disbanded.

    Which is why I think Parson would be able to turn if he were able to save the other units first. Say he uses the scroll on the reds and decrypted units, sending them back to Gobwin Knob. Now Parson is alone in the city. Wouldn't it be better for GK that Parson turn, so he can get Sizemore to save the city, and GK can actually have a real ally? At the very least, Charlie will turn his full attention to wiping out Parson, taking the heat of Stanley for a while.

    Yes, it's my pet theory, but I like it a lot.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 2:26 am 
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    Beeskee wrote:
    That might work, but I was under the impression that an inferno fire ashed the entire hex, no matter where the units were they'd croak. I checked back at the post about the inferno fire, and realized that we don't yet have any solid proof of this, but I am guessing based on the volcano situation that everything gets croaked eventually. All the archons at TBFGK were killed by the eruption, so from what we have seen, Parson is equally screwed unless he either gets out or gets the fire out.


    I don't think the volcano uncroaking is a good case study for what happens in an inferno.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 2:32 am 
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    It's the only one we have besides that one text update. :D I cheerfully admit I may be wrong regarding units in the airspace of an inferno being incinerated, but heat from a fire does rise, so it seems reasonable.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 4:05 am 
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    I didn't see Misty's wall hanging the first few times around... Guess it proves I'm no Lookamancer.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 8:50 am 
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    Lipkin wrote:
    Yes, it's my pet theory, but I like it a lot.


    I like it too. One thing I feel confident about, is that the calculcation Charlie just asked for is going to matter somehow. Only way I can think of is that it gives a high (maybe 100%) chance of working, thus revealing decisively to Parson that yes, he is a caster (and by the way... that's the trivial explanation why he could enter the magic kingdom). Then he's going to use some magic-based way of getting out of it. It could be the scroll like you say, or it could maybe be one of the magic items Parson is carrying if Rob wants to throw an unpredictable ball at us.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 8:56 am 
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    Parson doesn't need them to do much - all he needs is for the soldiers to mount up and take off and stay aloft for their lives.

    Then he founds a new side, pops his head through the gate, invites Sizemore and Wanda through... all done. The corpses will put them in a halfway decent shape tactically.

    The trick is getting them to the dwagons.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 9:17 am 
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    When Charlie spent a calculation, it made me realize that Parson should calculate the odds of some of his other options. For instance:
    "What is the probability of extinguishing the fire?"
    "What is the probability of bringing Sizemore to this city?"
    "What is the probability of me leaving this hex without using the scroll?"

    And so on. If he gets "0%", then he knows the plan is impossible. If he gets any other result, it might be worth looking into.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:22 pm 
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    It took me forever to figure out why Misty was on the wall tapestry, even though I had no problem working out the statue of Bogroll. :P It made me happy to see her there for some reason.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 1:51 pm 
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    Okay, the problem with Parson being eaten by a Red Dwagon as an exploit to avoid getting crisped? The dwagon will be digesting him until he gets out. He can't safely leave until the hex is Ashed.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 2:28 pm 
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    M.A.D wrote:
    1. "Yes, eventually." That applies to both of your points. Parson will win eventually, and he will leave the city eventually, but probably not today. At least not both. We only know that Parson would survive through today's battle, but whether that counts as a win for Charlie or Parson, that's up for debate, which means the option of casting the scroll is still open. For now, Haggar will not play any role in this, for reasons such as it's not their turn, Parson has nothing that could serve their interest to offer them, no communication could be made with thinkamancy links being cut by Charlie, and whatever help Haggar could offer would be too late since they're too far away. If Parson were going to leave the city, it's either have to be through casting the scroll, or a miracle.


    Parson's question was "Will I win?", in reference to the trap. Whether surviving via the scroll counts as a win or not could be debated, but I personally doubt that all the predictamancers, who are anticipating big changes after this event, would be this optimistic about a day ending with losing Parson due to the scroll. And Jojo's speech seems to imply that the MK's neutrality will be preserved if Parson is removed as a result of entering the portal, which isn't really a big change for Erfworld. As for Haggar, it is still the coalition's turn and Haggar has not broken alliance, so they have move. Haggar is somewhat concerned about GK; a non-aggression treaty or Parson leasing his strategic advice as compensation would be examples of something Haggar might gain from this. We know that Haggar pulled out from the engagement from Ansom, but AFAIK we haven't seen them explicitly leaving the battlespace. They still have incentive to try and take Spacerock.

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    2. Parson could have a Red Dwagon swallow him whole. That counts as not being burned.


    We don't know the mechanics, but Charlie would be familiar enough with dwagon mechanics to know that if it was an option, he would have dusted the remaining dwagons in the hex for the inferno trap to work. And since none of the dwagon eating mechanics have been discussed in the story previously, from a storyline perspective it would be an ass-pull if Parson utilizes it.

    Quote:
    3. Units can be given order to turn, on the basis that it serves the Ruler's interest. Parson cannot give an order that leads to GK losing a handful of soldiers, some dwagons, and its Chief Warlord to a new side, especially a side that has every reasons not to ally with Gobwin Knob once it has been founded. In this regard the summing spell might prevent him to. In fact, I don't think he can turn barbarian even if all GK's unit around were disbanded.


    (Edited for clarity) We know that a unit can act against ruler's short term interest in the interest of the side's long term preservation (examples with Wanda, Jillian, and Caesar). Charlie, with time and the absence of Parson's leadership, could easily defeat GK to end the Toolist threat. Parson could make the case that he needs to be alive and present in Erfworld to defeat Charlie and save GK, meaning he MUST change sides to get the portal open. Why would Parson not want to ally with Gobwin Knob at this point?

    Lipkin wrote:
    M.A.D wrote:

    3. Units can be given order to turn, on the basis that it serves the Ruler's interest. Parson cannot give an order that leads to GK losing a handful of soldiers, some dwagons, and its Chief Warlord to a new side, especially a side that has every reasons not to ally with Gobwin Knob once it has been founded. In this regard the summing spell might prevent him to. In fact, I don't think he can turn barbarian even if all GK's unit around were disbanded.


    Not my text.


    Last edited by Magothys on Sat May 04, 2013 2:48 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 2:31 pm 
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    Aegeus wrote:
    When Charlie spent a calculation, it made me realize that Parson should calculate the odds of some of his other options. For instance:
    "What is the probability of extinguishing the fire?"
    "What is the probability of bringing Sizemore to this city?"
    "What is the probability of me leaving this hex without using the scroll?"

    And so on. If he gets "0%", then he knows the plan is impossible. If he gets any other result, it might be worth looking into.


    He could get "Undefined".

    I do wish we had better knowledge of what exactly Parson does to calculate these odds. I still don't know if it's the programmer's challenge of knowing how to phrase a question correctly, or a simple magic eight-ball scenario.

    drachefly wrote:
    Parson doesn't need them to do much - all he needs is for the soldiers to mount up and take off and stay aloft for their lives.

    Then he founds a new side, pops his head through the gate, invites Sizemore and Wanda through... all done. The corpses will put them in a halfway decent shape tactically.

    The trick is getting them to the dwagons.


    In LIAB 33 Parson mentions that you can't upgrade a city if there are enemy units in it - I think it's safe to assume this means airspace as well. I think claiming a capital site might be disallowed if there is any enemy unit in the hex. Admittedly I have no real evidence for this, and Charlie doesn't really specify anything. But I don't think Charlie would bank on bluffing Parson into not claiming the city based on that kind of detail. He almost certainly knows Parson has been studying this stuff in depth.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 3:41 pm 
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    vintermann wrote:
    Lipkin wrote:
    Yes, it's my pet theory, but I like it a lot.


    I like it too. One thing I feel confident about, is that the calculcation Charlie just asked for is going to matter somehow. Only way I can think of is that it gives a high (maybe 100%) chance of working, thus revealing decisively to Parson that yes, he is a caster (and by the way... that's the trivial explanation why he could enter the magic kingdom). Then he's going to use some magic-based way of getting out of it. It could be the scroll like you say, or it could maybe be one of the magic items Parson is carrying if Rob wants to throw an unpredictable ball at us.
    I don't think Parson will use any items that he brought with them, because they haven't been discussed at all in comic. And Parson isn't likely to forget what he has on hand to use to his advantage.

    "What are the chances of me casting the scroll on myself?"

    "What are the chances of me casting the scroll on something else?"

    "What are the chances the scroll does what Charlie says?"

    "What are my chances of escaping without using the scroll?"

    Some decent questions to ask.


    drachefly wrote:
    Parson doesn't need them to do much - all he needs is for the soldiers to mount up and take off and stay aloft for their lives.

    Then he founds a new side, pops his head through the gate, invites Sizemore and Wanda through... all done. The corpses will put them in a halfway decent shape tactically.

    The trick is getting them to the dwagons.

    This doesn't work. They can't use the dwagons to change zones off turn. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to harvest the dwagons and fall from the airspace to get to the garrison. The dwagons are actually the biggest problem. He can command or reason with the decrypted units. The dwagons will follow commands, but not complex ones, and if he wants to turn, they are going to be his biggest problem.

    coyotenose wrote:
    It took me forever to figure out why Misty was on the wall tapestry, even though I had no problem working out the statue of Bogroll. :P It made me happy to see her there for some reason.

    This is part of the reason I think Parson is going to spin his own side. The Signamancy of the city is already heavily influenced by Parson. Yes, the livery is Stanley's, but the statues were explicitly stated to be Jetsone's fallen heroes, and Misty's banner was formerly of the croaked Dollmancer that Slately was stated to have had a soft spot for. Misty didn't die a hero. She died because of Stanley. I doubt Stanley even knew Bogroll's name. But they were both important to Parson.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 4:05 pm 
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    Lipkin wrote:
    drachefly wrote:
    The trick is getting them to the dwagons.

    This doesn't work. They can't use the dwagons to change zones off turn.


    They can now that it's their city!

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 4:09 pm 
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    Except that the inferno is now presumably between them and the dwagons.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 5:44 pm 
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    Pokota wrote:
    Except that the inferno is now presumably between them and the dwagons.

    Right, any plan that requires them leaving the building is problematic, as they appear to have been trapped by the flames. There are other potential pit falls in any given plan (like more people than Dwagons having appeared on screen since the blast, or the scroll being intended for a single target), but that's the most fundamental one.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 6:06 pm 
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    Doctor Foreman wrote:
    drachefly wrote:
    Parson doesn't need them to do much - all he needs is for the soldiers to mount up and take off and stay aloft for their lives.

    Then he founds a new side, pops his head through the gate, invites Sizemore and Wanda through... all done. The corpses will put them in a halfway decent shape tactically.

    The trick is getting them to the dwagons.


    In LIAB 33 Parson mentions that you can't upgrade a city if there are enemy units in it - I think it's safe to assume this means airspace as well. I think claiming a capital site might be disallowed if there is any enemy unit in the hex. Admittedly I have no real evidence for this, and Charlie doesn't really specify anything. But I don't think Charlie would bank on bluffing Parson into not claiming the city based on that kind of detail. He almost certainly knows Parson has been studying this stuff in depth.


    You have no evidence for it because it is already known to be wrong. We already know you can claim a city if you hold the garrison and enemy units are in the airspace or on the walls because we have already seen it happen. See the founding of Dwagoncon by Stanley and the conquest of El Efbaum by Faq.

    As for the airspace, it is not clear how a volcano kills, but one of its effects is almost certainly "inferno." Note that all of the archons in the airspace at the battle for Gobwin Knob were croaked. This does not bode well for anything in the air above Spacerock today.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 6:09 pm 
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    Using the scroll in any way is 1. too dangerous, and 2. allows Charlie to win.

    Parson has no idea he's been described as a Hippiemancer, correct? In any case, "basic Flower Power" is the only spell he's seen cast in Book 2. Any chance AVEDON prevents fire from taking further action?

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 7:01 pm 
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    Vreejack wrote:
    You have no evidence for it because it is already known to be wrong. We already know you can claim a city if you hold the garrison and enemy units are in the airspace or on the walls because we have already seen it happen. See the founding of Dwagoncon by Stanley and the conquest of El Efbaum by Faq.

    Neither of those examples is about founding a side, they're just about claiming cities. Hardly disproof. What I propose is that a warlord spinning off a side from a held city is less like claiming a city and more like upgrading it (assuming upgrading a city requires that the hex as a whole is uncontested, not just ground level).

    Vreejack wrote:
    As for the airspace, it is not clear how a volcano kills, but one of its effects is almost certainly "inferno." Note that all of the archons in the airspace at the battle for Gobwin Knob were croaked. This does not bode well for anything in the air above Spacerock today.

    You're making a categorization error here. Just because a volcanic eruption croaks units in the airspace does not mean an inferno does. It doesn't even imply it. The eruption had characteristics not associated with what we've been led to believe about infernos, such as occurring across multiple hexes and modifying terrain type to something other than ash.

    While an inferno croaking airspace units is the kind of weird unErfly logic I could accept Erfworld implementing, common sense should tell you why a volcanic eruption would kill people above it whereas a fire wouldn't.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 108
     Post Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 11:11 pm 
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    Urf wrote:
    Using the scroll in any way is 1. too dangerous, and 2. allows Charlie to win.

    Depends what the bracer says.

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