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 Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:47 pm 
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Whispri wrote:
Now the question here is, is that final Prediction a case of Preditamancy failure or is the fall of Faq going to be a rather different story then we've been led to believe?

I'm guessing that Delphie thinks that WANDA will be the one to cause the fall of FAQ. She simply isn't being careful with her prophecy.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:49 pm 
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    0beron wrote:
    Marie wrote:
    “I would like to amend my Prediction, Your Highness,” she said to the King. “Haffaton will be the agent of your destroction, and of the fall of Faq as well. I think soon.”

    Haffaton will be the AGENT. That doesn't require they actually be the ones to destroy FAQ. In fact, if the "curse" on Wanda is contingent on her avenging her fallen side(s), then her destruction of FAQ actually COULD be from Loyalty to Haffaton.

    We know Wanda did not want to dostroy FAQ. She wanted the hammer (and switched sides as soon as she realized whe had harmed FAQ seriously).

    If Haffaton is a Agent in this destruction, then Marie is a much bigger agent. After all, who told her she would get an arkentool?

    0beron wrote:
    At any rate, I see the phrasing "agent of your destruction" to be vague enough that it is still correct given what we know.


    And as I tried to express earlier: If that count as agent, who does not? And if we want to stretch agent, then most likely the biggest harm Haffaton will do is that they think they no longer need to find a backup side after destroying them.

    0beron wrote:
    As for the timing, she is still unsure about that. She noted that Predictions often shed little insight on the "particular of when".


    Even a very vague "I think soon" is hard to stretch that far to not be wrong. How long will it be? It's hard to imagine the current GK not being within Haffatons borders given they will ne neighbors then. Even if Saline IV already existed before and only moved the capital later, noone mentioned anything about that (especially not the dirtamancer which seems to be there longest). Given that Stanley thought it a good idea to go over FAQ, I'd rather guess the post-Haffaton-world to have stabilized quite a bit (otherwise there might have been many other good targets), so I guess it is extremely unlikely that can count as anything even vaguely near "soon"

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 2:00 pm 
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    onlyme wrote:
    We know Wanda did not want to dostroy FAQ. She wanted the hammer (and switched sides as soon as she realized she had harmed FAQ seriously).

    We actually DON'T know that, we have her word on it. For all we know, she could have secretly wanted to get the Hammer AND destroy FAQ.
    And assuming she is in fact innocent as she claims, there is still the matter of her "curse" to consider, and whether she MEANT to or not, she is what destroy's FAQ, and that's all that matters for the Prediction

    onlyme wrote:
    If Haffaton is a Agent in this destruction, then Marie is a much bigger agent. After all, who told [Wanda] she would get an arkentool?

    That may very well be, but remember through all of this that Marie is likely aware that FAQ can return. Notice that much of the language about the Prediction, and Banhammer's plans focus on HIS croaking. Marie may be setting FAQ down the path of least long-term failure. It could be that Haffaton will in some manner or another destroy FAQ no matter what, but Marie has some influence in determining how. Allowing it to come at Wanda's hands rather than Haffaton directly, she is banking on Jillian's success far in the future.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 2:40 pm 
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    Apparently, I and Banhammer are of similar minds when it comes to how to do a evacuation ahead of time.

    Now I like Banhammer.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 2:52 pm 
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    MarbitChow wrote:
    I'm starting to think that Predictamancers don't actually "predict" the future. They force it. I think their magic is based on the idea of a self-fulfilling prophecy; they see paths that can be taken, and THEY choose one, and create it.

    When Marie "Predicts" that Janis will join the stack, I get the impression of coercion instead of prediction. Janis believes, so Marie telling her that she is already fated to do so will make up Janis' mind, over any of Janis' personal objections.


    I like it!

    Could be a combination of both self-fulfilling and normal prophecies.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:32 pm 
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    My predictamancy? Goblin Knob is one of the clans that make up Haffaton, didn't they say that Stanley was the last of Plaid tribe or Goblin Knob was the last of the Plaid tribe or something along those lines? What if by destroying Haffaton Faq causes the formation of Goblin Knob which leads to their downfall?

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:57 pm 
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    0beron, Wanda's version of Faq's destruction is supported by Stanley's version, if he'd arrived with the forces he left home with on her advice, she'd have nailed him pretty easily. Whatever her longterm plans for Faq were, fact is, she wasn't plotting to destroy them that day.

    Haffaton being the agents of Faq's destruction mean they're going to be the ones who destroy them, there's just no room for ambiguity. Soon doesn't mean thousands of turns from now which is the time needed for the version of events we've heard to occur.

    So this really does leave us with two possibilities. The Prediction is wrong. Or the stories we've heard are, somehow, false.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:02 pm 
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    I think Marie simply knows that Wanda is going to be a cause of their fall. She didn't know that Wanda was with Haffaton, so she thought it was unlikely that Haffaton would be the end of them. Now that she knows Wanda is with Haffaton, she is figuring the most likely way for them to be destroyed is that Haffaton will send Wanda at them. There isn't any new prediction here, just her trying to figure out the most likely path the prediction she already made will take.

    As to the new plan, it is a lot worse than Jillian's initial thought, for reasons already outlined. However, Jillian is realizing she will never win support for her first plan plan, because it would mean abandoning the bubble side and the minimal killing philosophy. And she will never endorse Banhammer's plan because it treats anyone who isn't a caster as not worth trying to save.

    I personally find the casters' refusal to kill the utmost of hypocrisy. They have no problem letting Jillian kill to pay their upkeep, and no problem abandoning their own soldiers to death so that they can escape. They then expect Jillian to carve out a new home for them, again likely killing. Blood is on their hands regardless; they are just unwilling to admit it to themselves and prefer to let others die for them.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:18 pm 
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    drachefly wrote:
    Quote:
    The concept of intellectual cowardice was not something she wanted to think about.


    Well played, sir!

    This one went in my quotes file. This may be the first quote in it derived from fiction.

    As for prediction quality, it could have lost something in translation to words.


    Agreed. That was beautiful.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:20 pm 
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    Whispri wrote:
    On reflection Jillian's plan has a gaping flaw in it. It relies on the Ruler of Haffaton having no heir away from the Capital. If such an heir exists, or is created at the last moment as Wanda was, then given the sheer number of Capital Sites Haffaton must control at this point, Jillian's plan of unprovoked aggression can only fail.


    Would that even matter? If they do have another heir, it's easy enough to launch a second strike. Besides, that seems like the sort of thing that a master level predictamancer/lookamancer team could know in advance. And from what we've seen so far, most royal heirs spend most of their turns hanging out in the capital.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:34 pm 
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    Balerion wrote:
    I think Marie simply knows that Wanda is going to be a cause of their fall. She didn't know that Wanda was with Haffaton, so she thought it was unlikely that Haffaton would be the end of them. Now that she knows Wanda is with Haffaton, she is figuring the most likely way for them to be destroyed is that Haffaton will send Wanda at them. There isn't any new prediction here, just her trying to figure out the most likely path the prediction she already made will take.

    But in that case, why not just say so? She can't have Predicted Wanda serving at Faq or she wouldn't be saying 'soon'.

    woort wrote:
    Would that even matter? If they do have another heir, it's easy enough to launch a second strike. Besides, that seems like the sort of thing that a master level predictamancer/lookamancer team could know in advance. And from what we've seen so far, most royal heirs spend most of their turns hanging out in the capital.

    The whole plan hinges on Haffaton being caught unawares. Once a strike hits, the jig is up.

    The Lookamancer's range is around forty hexes as I recall, Haffaton's turf is vast. While the Predictamancer was unable to supply even the limited information on Haffaton's strength that Jillian provided.

    Is Haffaton a Royal Side? Either way, no Side we've seen has anything like as many Cities and most heirs we've seen are frequently in the field.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:38 pm 
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    Whispri wrote:
    0beron, Wanda's version of Faq's destruction is supported by Stanley's version, if he'd arrived with the forces he left home with on her advice, she'd have nailed him pretty easily. Whatever her longterm plans for Faq were, fact is, she wasn't plotting to destroy them that day.

    That doesn't mean she would have stayed with FAQ. She could have planned to turn regardless of who the combat was in favor of, and then wipe up what was left of the victor with her Uncroaked. I think in her ideal plan, she would have walked away from that battle with the 'Hammer as a Barbarian again. We can't KNOW what her plans were, only guess. (though I acknowledge my guess may be a little less likely)

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:39 pm 
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    Balerion wrote:
    I personally find the casters' refusal to kill the utmost of hypocrisy. They have no problem letting Jillian kill to pay their upkeep


    That does not match the update:

    Jilian wrote:
    Jack had told her that some of them felt strongly that she should never have been popped. He wouldn’t say which ones, but several of them didn’t think that Faq could stand the “moral burden” of being a mercenary side, instead of a true bubble kingdom.


    If they are against heir being popped, I guess it is safe to assume they are also against the whole plan, i.e. they would prefer to go down peacefully if the inevitable end comes.

    I guess we also have solved another mystery:
    Jilian wrote:
    The treasury would dwindle while she hunted for a new home, so time would be tight. But when she succeeded, the fourth city would add much needed Shmuckers to their treasury.


    There was always the question why they needed Jilian's income (or how that was even positive). I guess the answer is: For this plan (remember the plan included Jilian being created) they need a striking force. They need an army that can look for a new home and being trained and high-level enough to succeed and enough reserves to find a new home without much trouble. I guess that is what the merchanary work is for: to train their this force and to get the reserves needed for the search. Thus it is possible (I'd even say very likely) that their bubble kingdom could live quite well without the merchanery part, if they would plan to stay in their bubble and hope to never get found. But for their movement, they need the monetary reserves they get quite a lot easier that way and they need a experiences enough chief warlord, which they get, too, this way.

    That might also explain their ambivalence a bit better: It's not like they did not try to find better ways to earn their upkeep, because they get enough income. But they need her because their home will vanish and their king die, and she will have to fight to conquer a new place. There is no way they can avoid being depending on her by working in the mines or growing manual farms, they need her because she is the King's way to sacrify himself to make his ideals survive. Who would like to be reminded all the way on that and cheer her when she got better to that end?

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 4:52 pm 
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    Whispri wrote:
    But in that case, why not just say so? She can't have Predicted Wanda serving at Faq or she wouldn't be saying 'soon'.

    Because revealing details beyond what are strictly necessary is something predictamancers avoid. She believes that revealing this information will lead to Banhammer or others trying to avoid the fate, which will make it worse when it comes. Follows the common predictamancer lines.
    onlyme wrote:
    That does not match the update:

    Jilian wrote:
    Jack had told her that some of them felt strongly that she should never have been popped. He wouldn’t say which ones, but several of them didn’t think that Faq could stand the “moral burden” of being a mercenary side, instead of a true bubble kingdom.


    If they are against heir being popped, I guess it is safe to assume they are also against the whole plan, i.e. they would prefer to go down peacefully if the inevitable end comes.


    I didn't hear them protesting leaving the soldiers behind to die. None of them fought that plan, refusing to comply. Letting people die for them was just fine. So maybe that first line isn't quite matching, but I don't see them refusing the upkeep she brings in either.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:13 pm 
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    I have an alternate explanation for the apparent inaccuracy of Marie's Prediction....and that is it was not a Prediction at all!
    I think that she has already Predicted FAQ fall at Wanda's hands. But she didn't know until now that Wanda was with Haffaton! So her reaction at the very end of the update isn't a new Prediction persay, it's her putting one and two together (albeit not to well on the "when" but Predictamancy is tricky that way)

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:29 pm 
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    She was definitely applying reasoning somewhere in there, yes. It seems possible and reasonably likely she wasn't applying predictamancy at that moment.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:35 pm 
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    Whispri wrote:
    Wanda did the World a favour when she took Faq out. Pity Jillian escaped its doom.

    Now the question here is, is that final Prediction a case of Preditamancy failure or is the fall of Faq going to be a rather different story then we've been led to believe?
    We already know how this prophecy gets fulfilled, I think. Wanda was a Haffaton unit at one point. Therefore, her betrayal, which causes the fall of Faq, means that Haffaton has indirectly destroyed Faq.

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     Post Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 3:03 am 
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    Balerion wrote:
    onlyme wrote:
    If they are against heir being popped, I guess it is safe to assume they are also against the whole plan, i.e. they would prefer to go down peacefully if the inevitable end comes.


    I didn't hear them protesting leaving the soldiers behind to die. None of them fought that plan, refusing to comply.


    We were told some of them were against the plan. We do not know the reasons though, given that that discussion was a long time ago (before Jilian was created, as that is part of the plan). So "none of them fought that plan" is pure speculation. (I rather guess some objected and were persuaded that the reason for their objection is just cowardice before the facts of live).

    Balerion wrote:
    but I don't see them refusing the upkeep she brings in either.


    As I wrote in the post you quoted: I do not believe it is their upkeep. They habe the resources to allow a long search for a new capital and to invade there. This makes it not very likely that the merchenary income is needed for the upkeep of normal operations of FAQ.

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     Post Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:04 am 
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    0beron wrote:
    I have an alternate explanation for the apparent inaccuracy of Marie's Prediction....and that is it was not a Prediction at all!
    I think that she has already Predicted FAQ fall at Wanda's hands. But she didn't know until now that Wanda was with Haffaton! So her reaction at the very end of the update isn't a new Prediction persay, it's her putting one and two together (albeit not to well on the "when" but Predictamancy is tricky that way)


    This makes sense, given the indication that most Predictomancy still has uncertainty involved. Most likely the Prediction is along the lines of:

    "FAQ falls something something Banhammer croaks murky stuff Wanda in the Turn of blah..... FAQ arises again spooky voices and images new Heir."

    I'd like to think of it as a Predictomancy version of Hangman, where most of a Prediction is blank words and guessing right makes your Fate less traumatic?

    I expect that normally Marie's Predictions become more clear when they're in the very near future, so the above sample would make her think that the Prediction is way in the future. But hearing Wanda's name presents a problem, reconciling the above statement with the fact that it seems to be way in the future. Marie is simply assuming the When and How of that statement is just a bit off. Since she can't know the How...

    Spoiler: show
    ...That Wanda's forced to betray Banhammer in order to reconcile her own Prediction that she's to attune to a Tool


    She has no understanding that the When is still some distance off.

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     Post Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:39 am 
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    On an unrelated note that I'm surprised nobody has commented on yet....there are barbarian CAPITALS!? How does that even make sense....? By having a Capital, don't they become a proper side...?

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