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 Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:35 am 
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New One is up.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:52 am 
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    Wanda did the World a favour when she took Faq out. Pity Jillian escaped its doom.

    Now the question here is, is that final Prediction a case of Preditamancy failure or is the fall of Faq going to be a rather different story then we've been led to believe?

    Also didn't Jillian pinkie swear something along the lines of being no threat to Haffaton?

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:06 am 
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    As I recall, it was a for the moment pinkie swear, not binding for all points in the future.

    If I was a ruler, I'd have a hard time listening to a predictamancer for anything much larger than troop movement predictions etc.

    Jillian's plan is awesome. Fly around invisible with heavy fliers and drop a hammer on unsuspecting cities. Leave the whole area barbarian, pick them off at will, let them build back up over time, do it again. Way better than little mercenary runs.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:11 am 
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    I'm thinking Marie's Prediction changed because of Jillian's plan. Jillian's going to go through with it, and that fact helped add a "particular" to the Prediction.
    And Marie is right. She may not yet know why, but Jillian's plan WILL bring FAQ to fall "at Haffaton's hands"....the side just won't "properly" be alive anymore when the fall happens.

    Edit: I love it when I'm not even trying, and I get something! (in an earlier post, someone wondered if the evacuation plan is how they get Wanda, and I said the only way that'd work is IF they could pull off a decapitation attack against Haffaton Capital...and it seems like that is what they'll be doing.)

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:14 am 
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    On reflection Jillian's plan has a gaping flaw in it. It relies on the Ruler of Haffaton having no heir away from the Capital. If such an heir exists, or is created at the last moment as Wanda was, then given the sheer number of Capital Sites Haffaton must control at this point, Jillian's plan of unprovoked aggression can only fail.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:18 am 
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    Now that is a misleading prediction if we ever got one. I'd even call it plain wrong. Being the "agent of destruction" by getting destroyed, giving you a low-loyality aka poison-pill caster and making room for many new kingdoms, one will finally conquer you? I wonder whether she will claim a misunderstanding or whether she has simply lied.

    I guess we have two other reasons why the new FAQ did not get any casters: There might still be a couple of them in MK that were by old loyality bound to return if asked, so it would unfair to give that side more casters. And Jillian has made too much experience with casters not liking her warmongering that she perhaps prefers to never have to care for one.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:26 am 
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    onlyme wrote:
    Now that is a misleading prediction if we ever got one. I'd even call it plain wrong. .... I wonder whether she will claim a misunderstanding or whether she has simply lied.

    Nope, as I said (assuming Jillian actually carries out her plan) Marie's Prediction is 100% correct. I doubt she understands why yet, so when they successfully take down Haffaton without themselves falling, she'll be embrassed...but she'll later realize she was right.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:55 am 
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    Quote:
    The concept of intellectual cowardice was not something she wanted to think about.


    Well played, sir!

    This one went in my quotes file. This may be the first quote in it derived from fiction.

    As for prediction quality, it could have lost something in translation to words.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:20 am 
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    So what is Wanda's fate? I got a nasty feeling it is bigger then the tool she will get, Marie only supported the attack only after learning that Wanda was there. FAQ is proving to be a bigger anomaly then I previously thought so why do these sides come into existence? I do like the technical truth that Marie told at the end, so why would they even consider taking Wanda i then she would have many of the same issues that Jillian has?

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:29 am 
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    badninja wrote:
    Marie only supported the attack only after learning that Wanda was there.

    I don't think Marie was SUPPORTING the attack, she was just amending her Prediction because it suddenly became slightly more clear.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:50 am 
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    I'm starting to think that Predictamancers don't actually "predict" the future. They force it. I think their magic is based on the idea of a self-fulfilling prophecy; they see paths that can be taken, and THEY choose one, and create it.

    When Marie "Predicts" that Janis will join the stack, I get the impression of coercion instead of prediction. Janis believes, so Marie telling her that she is already fated to do so will make up Janis' mind, over any of Janis' personal objections.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:58 am 
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    I think Predictamancy works most like a combination of Wanda's philosophy, and Doctor Who. There are fixed points that do not change, certain events that will always happen a certain way...but the path TO those events, and when precisely they occur, is determined by free will. Predictamancers see those fixed points, and perhaps some of the possible ways to reach them, and they chose the path that seems best.

    On the flip side however, if your idea is correct Marbit, then how did Delphie use Predictamancy to have 100% accuracy in the tower-battle? Her decisions didn't coerce the enemy.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:21 am 
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    0beron wrote:
    onlyme wrote:
    Now that is a misleading prediction if we ever got one. I'd even call it plain wrong. .... I wonder whether she will claim a misunderstanding or whether she has simply lied.

    Nope, as I said (assuming Jillian actually carries out her plan) Marie's Prediction is 100% correct. I doubt she understands why yet, so when they successfully take down Haffaton without themselves falling, she'll be embrassed...but she'll later realize she was right.

    Soon. Soon she said. And Haffaton, not Wanda. Honestly, the description we've been given of Faq's fall just doesn't mesh with Haffaton knocking it out and soon. If the stories we've been told have any basis in reality, then blaming Haffaton for Faq's fall would be akin to blaming them for Wanda destroying a Side by starting a forest fire with a carelessly dropped match, or by poisoning everyone with bad cooking, or by triggering a series of epic prat falls, or by shagging a Ruler with an unexpectedly weak heart.

    So either what we know of Faq's destruction is wrong, or Marie's Prediction is wrong. Perhaps the discrepancy has something to do Wanda's Pop debt? Or a botched atempt at Retconjury?

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:27 am 
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    0beron wrote:
    On the flip side however, if your idea is correct Marbit, then how did Delphie use Predictamancy to have 100% accuracy in the tower-battle? Her decisions didn't coerce the enemy.

    How do we know that the enemy isn't coerced? Magic is often defined as the magic-user imposing their will upon the world.
    Erfworld already has coercion built in throughout the system - turnamancers can change loyalties, Erfworld enforces a no-profanity clause, etc.
    I don't think it's a stretch to believe that, once a Predictamancer "Predicts" something, Erfworld mechanics force it to be so.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:41 am 
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    Could it be that Wanda will be the reason she is wrong? Like she says in the current timeline "we can choose our paths, but our fate is inevitable, if we reject fate we will prolong our suffering" I paraphrased but that's basically what she says.

    With that, I would predict that Wanda is able to find out about the strike force and could easily crush it and then eventually take over Faq, but she doesn't, she will probably side with them (revenge and all) and since she cannot die yet because her fate is important, she will succeed out of the sheer force of her fate and prolong it.

    Which is why Marie's prediction is true (if Wanda had stayed loyal), but because of Wanda's choice it will have to change.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:42 am 
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    Whispri wrote:
    Soon. Soon she said. And Haffaton, not Wanda.
    So either what we know of Faq's destruction is wrong, or Marie's Prediction is wrong. Perhaps the discrepancy has something to do Wanda's Pop debt? Or a botched atempt at Retconjury?


    Marie wrote:
    “I would like to amend my Prediction, Your Highness,” she said to the King. “Haffaton will be the agent of your destroction, and of the fall of Faq as well. I think soon.”

    Haffaton will be the AGENT. That doesn't require they actually be the ones to destroy FAQ. In fact, if the "curse" on Wanda is contingent on her avenging her fallen side(s), then her destruction of FAQ actually COULD be from Loyalty to Haffaton. At any rate, I see the phrasing "agent of your destruction" to be vague enough that it is still correct given what we know.
    As for the timing, she is still unsure about that. She noted that Predictions often shed little insight on the "particular of when".

    On the other hand, however, her Prediction may actually be figurative and thus no vagueness is required. The conquest of Haffaton and the acquisition of Wanda could symbolically "destroy" the philosophy of Banhammer's FAQ. By nature of simply being there and posing such a dangerous threat, Haffaton "destroys" FAQ.

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    GJC wrote:
    Two guys with basically the same name in a discussion about a character getting cloned.
    There's gotta be a good joke in here somewhere.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 12:40 pm 
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    I think its increasingly clear Rob's taking a route he's just not spelling out yet. So I don't think we've 'caught' him out in anything, we just don't know enough yet to say how this is really going to play out.

    Marie's phrasing is “Haffaton will be the agent of your destroction, and of the fall of Faq as well. I think soon.” The first part is precise and sounds like a real Prediction; "I think soon" sounds like a best guess based on the feeling of it, but she could be misled by the weight or power of the new prediction.

    Anyway, I like the illustration! And we can put names to those casters, going back to Inner Peace Episode 30. Between it's illo and the paragraph describing the casters and who's standing next to whom, I think the Brent-from-PVP looking guy is Add Hawk, and the woman to Marie's right has to be Betsy Murgatroyd. (Who is hot, by the way. I'll claim that's high praise for Xin and not something wrong with me that a line drawing can show that.)

    This is interesting: "...all of the Court members did place their palms together and nod to her, except the Kin." Who are the Kin? Courtiers, maybe, if they all popped in the capital, but none have been mentioned so I doubt that. But there are two casters with the "title" of Brother and one of Sister: Orwell the Lookamancer, Labeler the Signamancer and Betsy the Healomancer. Sounds vaguely monkish, except we don't have the slightest hint of monks in Erfworld, so maybe they literally are Kin. That is, non-heir Royal casters, titled Brother and Sister as a sign of the equality of casters before the court, but secure or proud or bitter enough not to bother with the same politeness to Jillian as the other casters. But if not that, likely still siblings among themselves from somewhere, and apparently a discrete faction within the court.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 12:43 pm 
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    Yeah, "Kin" threw me off a bit too.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 12:48 pm 
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    “You mean ‘lopping off heads to pay your upkeep?’ You’re welcome.” Me thinks the Jillian doth overestimate her economic importance. Since the court feels that they could survive as a bubble side without her, (they're probably right considering they were surviving before she was popped,) then she probably isn't paying an extremely large amount of their upkeep. (I'd be surprised if Jillian was making much more than the cost of those warlords and Gwiffons she was with. Armies are typically very expensive to maintain.) We might be able to get a better idea of the true economic situation in Faq by watching to see what the Moneymancer thinks of Jillian.

    The idea Jillian thought of last issue, choose a known small side to topple over, was probably better than either of these plans. Finding an isolated, unoccupied, capital site to become Faq's new hiding place has a low chance of success (depending on the economics, she might have to find replacements for Otoh and Kibo as well,) and, as others have said here, Haffaton is well resourced enough to have the heir and secondary capital site required to survive Jillian's presented plan.

    You have to like how Banhammer requests that Jillian "swear to uphold the ideals of Faq after I am gone" and then considers abandoning those ideals within the same update. (Judging by the casters' reactions to the statement, not giving them orders to croak enemies is something they thought of as an ideal of Faq.)

    It is interesting that Jillian, warlord extraordinaire, lists off Haffaton's assets casters first.

    Saladman wrote:
    This is interesting: "...all of the Court members did place their palms together and nod to her, except the Kin." Who are the Kin?
    I think it is likely a misspelling of King.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2012 12:57 pm 
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    Swodaems wrote:
    I think it is likely a misspelling of King.


    ... Oh. :oops: Yeah, that would also explain it. If so, hopefully it'll get fixed.

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