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 Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:20 pm 
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You wanna do things the easy way or the hard way? Wanda chose the hard way. She just doesn't know it yet.

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     Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 5:17 pm 
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    kiyote wrote:
    Looking at that picture of Adam Antium, there is something staining his shirt. Maybe Erfworlders bleed, but not as much?


    Erm, I think that was crap? Assuming you mean this page?

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     Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:46 pm 
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    Fiendishrabbit wrote:
    Do you know what I really really really really want now?

    A coloured image of Wanda in her current outfit but with a Commisars hat.



    This will have to do in the meantime.

    Image

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     Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:48 pm 
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    davesnothere wrote:
    ... but... how come Delphie didn't see this coming? :twisted:



    I posted this in another forum, but I see Delphie's prediction as an either-or thing: either Goodmitton will make peace with Hafaton and trade Wanda, or Goodmitton will fall. So she did foresee it, and she was trying to avoid it.

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     Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:58 pm 
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    gameboy1234 wrote:
    davesnothere wrote:
    ... but... how come Delphie didn't see this coming? :twisted:



    I posted this in another forum, but I see Delphie's prediction as an either-or thing: either Goodmitton will make peace with Hafaton and trade Wanda, or Goodmitton will fall. So she did foresee it, and she was trying to avoid it.


    Not necessarily. Prediction gives you the end result, not the path that gets there. Delphie Predicted that Wanda would not be in her charge for long, but she did not foresee that the way that was achieved was Wanda becoming Chief caster.

    Olive will be Wanda's Chief Caster, but that can be achieved in many ways, including Olive being captured by Goodminton, Turning, and becom,ing Goodminton's Chief. Or both Olive and Wanda could be captured by an unknown, yet powerful, third Side. There are a myriad of ways to get tehre, without Wanda being captured or traded and winding up in Haffaton.

    I think this text period may be more about demonstrating the flawed vision of the Predictamancers than anything else... except the decent of Wanda, of course.

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     Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 8:30 pm 
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    Kreistor wrote:
    gameboy1234 wrote:
    davesnothere wrote:
    ... but... how come Delphie didn't see this coming? :twisted:



    I posted this in another forum, but I see Delphie's prediction as an either-or thing: either Goodmitton will make peace with Hafaton and trade Wanda, or Goodmitton will fall. So she did foresee it, and she was trying to avoid it.


    Not necessarily. Prediction gives you the end result, not the path that gets there.



    Do we know this for a fact? Just asking, because I don't recall it being stated.

    Regardless, I didn't posit a step-by-step path to get to an end result. I just gave two predictions, two end points. The path to get there I think has been almost entirely of Delphie's choosing.

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     Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 9:42 pm 
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    gameboy1234 wrote:
    Do we know this for a fact? Just asking, because I don't recall it being stated.


    Does it need to be said in a precise way? Look at Wanda. She gets the Prediction that she will attune. Did she have any guidance on even which Tool she would attune to?

    Did Delphie foresee her own downfall from Chief?

    It's obvious, now. It hasn't been said in exactly those words, but we have no examples of a Prediction where the path to get to the ePRedicted end is known. None.

    Quote:
    Regardless, I didn't posit a step-by-step path to get to an end result. I just gave two predictions, two end points. The path to get there I think has been almost entirely of Delphie's choosing.
    [/quote]

    Oh, hardly. She did not choose to fall from Chief. She chose for Wanda to go to Haffaton.

    The advantage of knowing Predictions that others do not is obvious. But applying only one mind to figuring them out is a glaring weakness. Predictamancers, above all, have an arrogance that is interfering with their own capacity to see the parts of the future that Predictions ignore.

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     Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 11:45 pm 
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    Kreistor wrote:
    gameboy1234 wrote:
    Do we know this for a fact? Just asking, because I don't recall it being stated.


    Does it need to be said in a precise way? Look at Wanda. She gets the Prediction that she will attune. Did she have any guidance on even which Tool she would attune to?


    Well, you're making a large assumption here, imo. It's a matter of known unknowns and unkown unkowns. I'm pretty sure we don't have a lot of details how Predictamancy works. I'd prefer to leave it that way, rather assume we know something we don't.

    Quote:
    Did Delphie foresee her own downfall from Chief?


    Perhaps. What do you make of this quote: "If you let her continue to speak, she will cause ruin to Goodminton, this I Predict."

    Here's what I make of it: first, Delphie did predict the ruin of Goodminton, possibly she saw also that path would lead to her own downfall. Second, note the conditional, which was part of my original point.

    If Goodminton makes peace, they are saved.
    If Wanda continues talking, they are ruined.

    Do you see two diametrically opposed predictions there? And yet Delphie predicted both. I think there's some stuff going on that we don't quite see yet. No, I don't think that Predictamancers get step-by-step information, but they certainly can see inflection points, actions that have direct consequences (If Goodminton makes peace, or if Wanda continues talking).

    There may be other conditionals too. We know at least one other: "If Parson is Chief Warlord during the battle for Spacerock..." Maggie took a big risk there, putting a spell on her own Overlord, to make that one happen. It wasn't Predicted, it was a condition that was part of a prediction. There's a difference, at least to my mind. They're not guaranteed to happen.

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     Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:11 am 
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    gameboy1234 wrote:
    Kreistor wrote:

    Not necessarily. Prediction gives you the end result, not the path that gets there.



    Do we know this for a fact? Just asking, because I don't recall it being stated.


    I think we know it as close to fact. Rob made some comment on how we in this prequel are in same shoes as a predictomancer... knowing the end result with Wanda but not knowing how it gets there.

    A good predictomancer could probably ask additional questions, to get better idea.

    Fate seems to act like luckomancer to alter rolls to help get what it wants... A luckomancer can be beaten, unknown if fate can. In original Parson game on earth he was like fate against them and he wanted to cheated/beaten.

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     Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:17 am 
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    gameboy1234 wrote:
    Perhaps. What do you make of this quote: "If you let her continue to speak, she will cause ruin to Goodminton, this I Predict."

    Here's what I make of it: first, Delphie did predict the ruin of Goodminton, possibly she saw also that path would lead to her own downfall. Second, note the conditional, which was part of my original point.

    If Goodminton makes peace, they are saved.
    If Wanda continues talking, they are ruined.

    Do you see two diametrically opposed predictions there? And yet Delphie predicted both. I think there's some stuff going on that we don't quite see yet. No, I don't think that Predictamancers get step-by-step information, but they certainly can see inflection points, actions that have direct consequences (If Goodminton makes peace, or if Wanda continues talking).


    What *I* make of it is simply and only that Delphie's still trying to manipulate her overlord. We know she's gone as far as lying to her overlord to manipulate him, and what easier way to do that than to put an emphasis in your voice and gloss over the difference between conversational predict and magical predict. Or the "continue talking" prediction may not be a flat-out lie but a non-magical if sincere and logical extension from Delphie's overall prophecy and her fear that Wanda will persuade her father.

    A minor nit-pick since you may yet be proved right, it's just my pet peeve when I see people conflate neutral narrative infallibility with character narrative infallibility. The characters are biased and sometimes even wrong.

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     Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:56 am 
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    Quote:
    "You have doomed us all," she said simply.


    Anyone else get the feeling that by "all", Delphie doesn't mean just Goodminton? :?

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     Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:14 am 
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    raphfrk wrote:
    kiyote wrote:
    Looking at that picture of Adam Antium, there is something staining his shirt. Maybe Erfworlders bleed, but not as much?


    Erm, I think that was crap? Assuming you mean this page?


    Huh. You may be right on that one. I take back what I said about that being blood...

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     Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:21 am 
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    gameboy1234 wrote:
    Well, you're making a large assumption here, imo. It's a matter of known unknowns and unkown unkowns. I'm pretty sure we don't have a lot of details how Predictamancy works. I'd prefer to leave it that way, rather assume we know something we don't.


    We have seen, in front of us, two Predictions now. What more do you need? What more do you expect? What constitutes evidence for you?

    Quote:
    Kreistor wrote:
    Did Delphie foresee her own downfall from Chief?


    Perhaps. What do you make of this quote: "If you let her continue to speak, she will cause ruin to Goodminton, this I Predict."


    What I make out is a Prediction cast right in front of your eyes, though in text.

    Quote:
    Here's what I make of it: first, Delphie did predict the ruin of Goodminton, possibly she saw also that path would lead to her own downfall. Second, note the conditional, which was part of my original point.
    \

    "Possibly"? You just finished ripping me for making an "assumption", and you have the gall to use the word "possibly" as if it was evidence? You failed to consider the possibility that this Prediction was made riight here, right now, and Delphie didn't have it before.

    Quote:
    If Goodminton makes peace, they are saved.
    If Wanda continues talking, they are ruined.


    Not exactly. She predicts Goodminton in ruins, not the Side Goodminton destroyed. The city can fall but the Side move Capital.

    And that's my point. You are like the Predictamancers, convinced only your vision of how a Prediction could come true is the right one. You might be right.

    Quote:
    Do you see two diametrically opposed predictions there?


    You aren't very creative. You can't see a way both could be true?

    Quote:
    And yet Delphie predicted both. I think there's some stuff going on that we don't quite see yet. No, I don't think that Predictamancers get step-by-step information, but they certainly can see inflection points, actions that have direct consequences (If Goodminton makes peace, or if Wanda continues talking).


    Really? I don't.

    Is any Side eternal? No. Eventually, all Sides fall. So, given the lack of time in the Goodmintoon ruined predictamancy, is Goodminton eventually going to lie in ruins? Absolutely. Goodminton can grow and find a Level 5 to take as Capital, and Goodminton gets razed ro fought over. What Delphie does not say is, "Goodminton will be detroyed because Wanda is allowed to talk further." Goodminton is not stated as a consequence of Wanda talking, it is only implied. And that's the danger of Prophecy: reading too much into implications.It is equally true that if Wanda remained silent, Goodminton would also lie in ruins. Someday Goodminton will lie in ruins, and that shouldn't surprise anyone.

    Quote:
    There may be other conditionals too. We know at least one other: "If Parson is Chief Warlord during the battle for Spacerock..." Maggie took a big risk there, putting a spell on her own Overlord, to make that one happen. It wasn't Predicted, it was a condition that was part of a prediction. There's a difference, at least to my mind. They're not guaranteed to happen.


    In Prophecy, implied conditions are often grossly overemphasized. Often, you'll find the result is inevitable regardless of the condition.

    But in this case... where on Erf does it say Maggie did this because of a Prediction?

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     Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:32 pm 
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    Megaduck wrote:
    Ok, possible issue here.

    Quote:
    But now to find that it was a personal distaste for Croakamancy that kept him from considering her his "daughter?" Blood flowed to her face, a mechanism she understood down to the tissues and sinus cavities within her head, for Croakamancy was a beautiful art


    This is the first time we hear about Blood in Erf world for a unit but we've seen multiple times in Book 1 and Book 2 that units don't Bleed. So, if Wanda was cut in the face why would she not bleed the blood that is there? Is there a reason for this or do you all think it's just a titanic error?

    On a similer note, we find out Here that parson does in fact bleed. Relevant quote.

    Quote:
    Before the battle he had nicked his ankle messing around with a pickaxe down in the tunnels with Sizemore. The cut, the bloodstain, and the little hole in his sock were all repaired the next morning. If there was anything about this world that was a gamer's wish come true, automatic grooming and laundry had to be it.


    So say he goes into battle and takes damage, is everyone going to be shocked at all this weird red stuff pouring out of him?

    On blood: We've seen it before today, namely here although not by name and we get an explicit mention here. So blood does exist it just normally doesn't leave the body. So Erfworlders don't bleed normally barring special attacks. Either Parson lacks this protection or his attacks inflict bleeding.

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     Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:29 pm 
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    Kreistor wrote:
    gameboy1234 wrote:
    Well, you're making a large assumption here, imo. It's a matter of known unknowns and unkown unkowns. I'm pretty sure we don't have a lot of details how Predictamancy works. I'd prefer to leave it that way, rather assume we know something we don't.


    We have seen, in front of us, two Predictions now. What more do you need? What more do you expect? What constitutes evidence for you?

    Quote:
    Kreistor wrote:
    Did Delphie foresee her own downfall from Chief?


    Perhaps. What do you make of this quote: "If you let her continue to speak, she will cause ruin to Goodminton, this I Predict."


    What I make out is a Prediction cast right in front of your eyes, though in text.


    And here's the fault in your logic. We don't know that these are Predictions. They could be lower case p predictions. Or they could be bluffs or outright lies. Delphi has already proven herself to be unreliable. She has been confirmed in canon to lie to get what she wants. In addition, we have absolutely no confirmed, hard evidence on how Predictamancy works. All we have is speculation.

    We cannot confirm a single on screen casting of Predictamancy. All we have is the words of Predictamancers, all of whom so far have proven to be unreliable. Until we can confirm SOMETHING, all that we have about Predictamancy is assumptions. Which means that one person's ass(umption) is just as good as another's. And that means that they all could stink.

    Let's not go throwing stones until we have some actual knowledge to back it up.

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     Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 9:34 pm 
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    "Here's what I make of it: first, Delphie did predict the ruin of Goodminton, possibly she saw also that path would lead to her own downfall. Second, note the conditional, which was part of my original point.

    If Goodminton makes peace, they are saved.
    If Wanda continues talking, they are ruined."

    "If Goodminton makes peace, they are saved." - no evidence for that, only hope that *might* find a way to survive. Goodminton faces 5 hostile neighbours, situation was near hopeless.

    Delphie seems to predict Wanda becomes caster for their main enemy. 2 known ways for that to happen, 1 - through war, and 2 - trade. Since it would take a big defeat to capture Wanda alive in war, likely means their side is destroyed.

    Now if Parson was the one looking at this prediction if he believed it was unstoppable, he would see trade away Wanda like that for free and still badly outnumbered. Therefore I need to use her to get into better position before I trade her, and/or I need to make a good trade that gives me something valuable in return.

    The current deal feels too one sided, and too easy for other side to legally cheat as enemy and frenemy swap roles, and both work against you. (Hard to stop a frenemy from scouting you and secretly trading with your enemies.)

    Wanda's sides approach is also flawed... Parson *would* try to negotiate, costs nothing, and has potential to find some advantage. After you are destroyed the enemies will face each other as threats, you can use that as leverage to find ways to make them want to deal with you so they aren't destroyed next. As well the moral of *all* casters is important, so I would do both good cop and bad cop with my predictomancer to find out everything she knows and find ways to appease her. The side is partially crippled from not knowing enough about predictions and how luck works.

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     Post Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 10:04 am 
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    The forum is becoming as amusing as the text updates, I can't help but think Rob set this up intentionally. The most strongly debated issues recently have been the role of predictamancy and luckamancy in Efrworld. Philosophers have thought and written on these issues, bereft of Erfworld's trappings for thousands of years. On one side you have determinism represented by Delphie. On the other side you have you have indeterminism represented by Clay.

    Now I know this is a novella based on a webcomic about a wargame, but the debates all boil down to whether the characters in Erfword have freewill. In the interest of keeping the post short, Delphie and Clay cannot both be right. Goodminton's two casters (prior to Wanda) are philosophically opposed.

    Genius Rob, genius.

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     Post Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 3:08 pm 
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    arkerpay wrote:
    The forum is becoming as amusing as the text updates, I can't help but think Rob set this up intentionally. The most strongly debated issues recently have been the role of predictamancy and luckamancy in Efrworld. Philosophers have thought and written on these issues, bereft of Erfworld's trappings for thousands of years. On one side you have determinism represented by Delphie. On the other side you have you have indeterminism represented by Clay.

    Now I know this is a novella based on a webcomic about a wargame, but the debates all boil down to whether the characters in Erfword have freewill. In the interest of keeping the post short, Delphie and Clay cannot both be right. Goodminton's two casters (prior to Wanda) are philosophically opposed.

    Genius Rob, genius.


    Becoming? Welcome to the show. If you can put up with the personalities, it's a fascinating and utterly hysterical place at times. (Pun fully intended)

    And yes. The man is a genius.

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     Post Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 8:31 pm 
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    Hello, been reading this since Book 1, but just now decided to create an account.

    A thought: regarding Delphie's Prediction that Wanda would serve under Olive Branch, I see it as a possibility that the Prediction could have been much less precise: Wanda will serve under a 'Chief' Hippiemancer, and she is simply interpreting that to be the only Hippiemancer involved in the current conflict, Olive. If theories regarding Parson being a Signamancer are correct, that could fulfill the Prediction.

    ...a long shot, I know, but all the good ones were taken. Just a thought.

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     Post Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 8:43 pm 
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    arkerpay wrote:
    The forum is becoming as amusing as the text updates, I can't help but think Rob set this up intentionally. The most strongly debated issues recently have been the role of predictamancy and luckamancy in Efrworld. Philosophers have thought and written on these issues, bereft of Erfworld's trappings for thousands of years. On one side you have determinism represented by Delphie. On the other side you have you have indeterminism represented by Clay.

    Now I know this is a novella based on a webcomic about a wargame, but the debates all boil down to whether the characters in Erfword have freewill. In the interest of keeping the post short, Delphie and Clay cannot both be right. Goodminton's two casters (prior to Wanda) are philosophically opposed.

    Genius Rob, genius.


    I don't see Clay and Delphi as having opposing. The predictamancers say that certain destinations are predetermined, but the route to get to them may vary. There is plenty of room for luck to help the journey. And not everything is predermined, and fate only seems to involve certain people. I also don't think it has been mentioned in comic about any preditamancer predicting which side would win a battle. They only seem to know that certain conflicts will occur. Long term predications have always been fuzzy, and lacking in details about time and place.

    The only one who has ever said anything that has clashed with the predictamancers, has been Jeftichew.

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