Sure we can talk up a storm, but who really has the best handle on things? There's only one way to settle it - put your money where your mouth is! Of course, handling actual
money would be difficult and in some jurisdictions constitute illegal gambling. So I propose we work in quatloos
We can have pools, offers of one-on-one wagers, etc. To join, just offer or accept a bet. Each participant starts at zero quatloos. You are permitted to make bets that could put you up to 100 quatloos into debt, plus 10 per calendar month since your first bet was placed (start June 30? Get an extra 10 debt limit on July 1). If a bet is due to resolve in the future, you can borrow up to the limit for when it would resolve, not for when you place the bet (so if today we started a pool that resolves in 320 days, you could bet 200 quatloos).
To be clear: Your balance only changes by winning or losing bets. Your credit limit increases over time.
You are encouraged to offer uneven odds.
Don't edit your posts frivolously - if a post IS edited, then that opens up disputes and I'd rather not deal with that. You can retract bets by editing, marking them as retracted, but not blanking them. Do not edit a disputed post.
If you offer a bet and new information comes in that makes your outcome seem less likely, anyone taking that bet has to ask before claiming it (example: "I'll take that, if it's still good"). Bets offered and taken with no relevant information since need not wait on confirmation. This is a judgement call by the management, which can be swayed by argument. (See page 8 or 9 for a failure to think about this which put my mind into making this policy in the first place).
If a bet is certain to go one way or another, it is not valid (e.g. neither 'I bet that Stanley the Plaid attains the rank of Overlord' nor 'I bet that Lady Sylvia attains the rank of Overlord' is valid)
Speaking of judgement calls, in the event I call a bet in my favor without a concession and I turn out to have been wrong, I pay out double. In general, don't be in a rush to call bets. It's not like you can spend quatloos anyway.
You may also place bet offers with odds to be determined automatically using this
scheme: just name a maximum bet scale and the probability you assign to a proposition, and anyone else can fill in their own probability and maximum bet scale and auto-generate a fair bet.
This post will be edited to maintain the list of open pools and taken bets, and will be updated reasonably promptly.
(Note: the total of bets outstanding does not count bet offers, only agreed-upon bets or entries into pools)
0beron is at 10q and has 75q out (10 of these distant future)
Agarwaen is at 12q
Almondsandrain is at 10q
Alpha the White is at -10q and has 55 q out
Anonymous 167 has 35q out
Atomic is at -10q
Balerion is at 5q and has 30q out (30 of which are distant future)
BCCroaker is at -50 q and has 20 q out
Beeskee has 10q out
Bibliomancer is at 10q
Bladestorm is at 45q and has 346q out
BLANDCorporatio is at 5q
bpzinn is at 0q and has 65q out
Carl is at -25q and has 10q out
CarniDollMancer is at -15q and has 45q out
ccc has 90q out
Cloudbreaker is at -20 q and has 70 q out (70 of which are medium-long term)
Crisco has -20q and has 10q out
-D- is at -10q
Daefaroth is at 10q
Dalen Mantil is at -10q
DeathTheKid is at 10 q
deus EX has 25q and has 50q out
Drachefly is at 205 q and has 476 q out (50 of which are distant future)
Duke of spoot has 70q out
DunkelMentat is at 10q
Effataigus is at -10q and has 20 q out
erwaro is at -15q and has 5q out
EthericSentinel is at 10q
Fabo is at -10q and has 55q out (30 of which are distant future)
five-thirteen is at -10q and has 20q out
Fjord is at 65q and has 20q out
focused is at 15q
Free_radical has 0q out
GJC is at 20q
Godzfirefly has -25q and 50q out
GWvsJohn is at 10q and has 120q out
happyturtle is at -10q and has 45q out
Infidel has -100q
Itoh is at -35q and has 20q out
iwinatlife is at -50q and has 30q out
jmp246 has 80q out
Kandarin is at -20q and has 20q out
kaed is at -20q and has 40q out
keighvin1 is at 20q
keybounce has 10q out
kriss1989 is at -10q
Lamech is at -20q
Lawence of Awabia has 30q out
Lilwik is at 10q and has 40q outstanding (10 distant future)
Lipkin is at -25q and has 15q outstanding
LordBiscuit is at -10q
mantimeforgot is at -1q
MadZuri is at 10q and has 47q outstanding
MarbitChow is at -1 q and has 20q outstanding
Mirage GSM is at -10q and has 50q outstanding
mortissimus is at 119q and has 75q outstanding (30 of which distant future)
Mrtyuh is at -25q and has 288q outstanding (60 of which distant future)
Nakedkali is at -55q
Neceros is at -40q
Nightseraph has 35q and 60q out
Nnelg is at -31q and has 30q outstanding
No One In Particular is at 0q and has 180 outstanding
NotABot has 10q and 20q out
Nueamin is at -50q
Oberon is at -30q and has 10q out
Procrastimancer has 10q out
ryuplaneswalker is at -10q
saladman is at -10 q
shai-hulud is at -93q and has 35q out
sheepfly is at -10 q
Silversought has 25q out
Sir_Dr_D is at 29q and has 55q out
Sixty is at -10 q and has 30q out
SNfinity is at 10q and has 20q out
spriteless is at 10q and has 13q out
Spruce has 45q
Squall83 is at -10q and has 20q out
Swodaems has 40q out
Taikei no Yuurei is at 25q and has 130q out (10 distant future)
Tathar has 20q out
Th Revanchist is at 0q and has 35q out
TheCommander236 is at -10q and has 20q outstanding
TheLionTamer is at -5q
ThisIsNotDan is at -5q
tomaO2 is at 20q and has 10q out
Vendanna is at -10q and has 120q out
Vintermann is at 0 q
Walpurgisborn is at -10q
werebiscuit is at -5q
WhirdCheese is at -3q
Whispri is at 294q and has 202q out
wih is at 25q and has 275q out (30 distant future)
wraith203 is at -90q and has 20 out
Xarx is at -35q and has 30q out (30 distant future)
YesNinja is at -20q and has 20q out
youngstormlord is at -10q
zilfallon is at -10q
Zippy The Squirrel is at 0q and has 15q outstanding
╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛ is at 10q and 55q outstanding
POOL 5: Will there be an offer to continue the 'game', in any fashion, from Charlie, at the end of the story?
I put 20q on 'no'
Nnelg put 10q on 'yes'.
POOL TATHAR 1:
At some point during or after the negotiations for an alliance, Parson or Tramennis will mention something about improving upon the Titans' work in the context of bringing peace on Erf. 5 quatloos
Tathar: yes (double entry)
POOL TATHAR 2:
Parson will have a vision of how peace on Erf should look like, and that vision will include Thinkamancers becoming schoolteachers or other instructors.
Tathar: yes (double entry)
CURRENT BETS AND CLOSED POOLS:
Swodaems bet me 10 that the Dwagon encounters on the way to FAQ were an unintended effect caused by the dwagons instinctively scavenging meat. - resolve in my favor if no revelation by the end of book 4.
Swodaems bet me 20 that Banhammer was already uncroaked by the time Stanley arrived in Faq and that Wanda was trying to stage an elaborate play to fool Jillian. - resolve in my favor if no revelation by the end of book 4.
Swodaems bet Sixty 10 that Queen Bea was behind the death of Saline. Resolve in Sixty's favor if no revelation by the end of Book 4.
MarbitChow bets BCCroaker 20 that Parson and Wanda don't become an item by the end of book three.
Balerion bet Mrtyuh 30q that this is substantially correct and will be established before the comic ends, including by official statements of the author: "Predicitmancy functions by means of the relative nature of time in Erfworld.For instance, it might allow the predictimancer to actually watch events as they transpire by letting their perception experience time much more rapidly than their body, and then reuniting the two. But I will claim a win if the relative nature of time is involved in any capacity"
Whispri bet me 10q that Wanda creates at least one Golem that is powerful enough to count as a Heavy, without the use of Scrolls, prior to Book 1.
Mrtyuh bet Fabo 30q that before Erfworld wraps up, the Arkendish will be used to make a 4- or 5-way link of the 4 Attuned wielders of the Arkentools and perhaps Parson as well. Since this would probably happen very close to the end, there would be no time limit other than the end of the comic.
Mrtyuh bet Fabo 5q that Wanda will seduce Marie before the fall of Faq.
0beron (zero) bet me 5q that all 8 casters FAQ had (listed in Book 0 Episode 30) popped as FAQ units, and were not captured or hired. If there is no result by the end of Book 0, then nobody wins.
0beron (zero) bet me 5q that Tram will WILLINGLY turn to Parson's side, rather than being captured.
0beron (zero) bet five-thirteen 20q that the 4th 'Tool uses Signamancy.
0beron (zero) bet sixty 10q that the reason Jillian was called back to court is directly related to Wanda or Olive (not just Haffaton in general). (this bet is not to be called until the end of Book 0) (but it's really looking like a win for sixty)
Duke of spoot bet cloudbreaker 30q that Charlie is offering money for Archons alive because he has stopped spawning them.
Duke of spoot bet cloudbreaker 40q that when an attack is made on Gobwin's Knob, it will be underground, and Charlie will have something to do with it (like giving info to somebody else).
Whispri bet me 10q that Wanda poses as a different type of Caster while serving at Faq.
I bet whispri my 50q to his 2q that Wanda doesn't pose as another type of caster at any point while at FAQ. This is without regard to success or failure. In no case does a joke count. Attempting to fool any of the casters, warlords, or Banhammer even for a moment counts; for others, trying for, say, a minute. (I include this exception since fooling regular soldiers is much easier and has many fewer consequences and would not be generally the same sort of endeavor)
SNfinity bet 0beron and me 10q each (at even odds) that the fourth Arkentool attunes to Sizemore
Mrtyuh bet Nnelg bet 10q that Charlie played a significant role in Haffaton’s downfall and that in turn led to the Hippiemancers getting in bed with the Thinkamancers, so to speak.
Sixty bet Whispri 10q that Jillian's yellow dwagon gets converted by Stanley when he attacks. If it dies before then or something else happens to it, Whispri wins.
(Oh)beron bets zeroberon 10q that Jojo was not a part of the Kingworld (*hurk! hawk! pa-ting!*) spell.
Nnelg bet effataigus 10q that Charlie was not behind Saline IV's death
Whispri bet bladestorm and me 1q each that Wanda will become Chief Caster of a Side other than Gobwin Knob during Book Zero.
Beeskee bet Whispri 10q that the first time Parson kills a person other than Clonely, he throws up.
bladestorm bet his 50q to effataigus' 10q that the Arkentools are shown not to be tied to a single discipline by the end of book 3.
bladestorm bet 20q to mortissimus' 5 that Charlie wanted Stanley to change the capital.
Erwaro's 5 to Lipkin's 10, that Parson is either a Findamancer or a Weirdomancer. If he doesn't have a discipline, bet is off.
Kaed bet Takei no Yuurei 30q that reason Charlie's Capital is able to naturally pop Archons at 1/turn is a result of high level Carnymancy (possibly through the Dish, but not necessarily BECAUSE of it) employed on his city.
Kaed be Takei no Yuurei 10q that the reason Charlie only pops archons is because the price for this rigged city production is he CAN'T produce anything else now.
YesNinja bet GWvsJohn 20q that Charlie will be shown to be from Stupidworld by the end of Book 3 (details on page 29)
No One In Particular bet Lilwik, 0beron, Taikei no Yuurei, and Th Revanchist 10, Fabo 20, and me, xarx, wih, and mortissimus 30, that Parson is a Date-a-mancer.
wih bet Taikei no Yuurei 20q that if Parson has a specific Discipline, it's Signamancy.
wih bet mortissimus 5q and Taikei no Yuurei 10q on each of the following propositions:
- during Book 3, there will be an attempt to bring a caster into an involuntary link
- this link will be initiated by Charlie/the Arkendish
- the target of this link will be Parson
bpzinn's 15q to Lilwik's 10q that there will be a nonstandard linkup (anything other than two casters each using one discipline with the dish or a thinkamancer between them) before book 4.
bpzinn bet GWvsJohn 50q that it is possible for a participants in a trimancer link to contribute more than one caster discipline (see page 32 for details. Type 1 bet)
My 50q to Zippy the squirrel's 15q that a large number of high level thinkamancers are not in themselves enough to link more than 3 casters.
wih bet whispri 20q that Stanley is the perspective of Part 3 of Book 0.
Lilwik bet whispri 10q that Misty is the focus of Episode 82 of Book 0.
MadZuri bet Lipkin, Whispri, and me 10q each that Charlie has golems that mimic archons.
spriteless bet bladestorm 10q that within 10 pages (either side) of Sizemore making Master Class Dirtomancer he will turn away from whatever side Parson is on.
Shai_hulud bet Godzfirefly 25q that Dove was at least originally planning to con Homekey.
Mrtyuh bet Taikei no Yuurei 10q that Ashna will be summoned to Erfworld, and she and a fitter Parson will become an item.
Mrtyuh bet wih and Taikei no Yuurei 20q each that DigDoug will build a lightning trap at the capital of Charlescomm.
MadZuri's 17q to Spriteless's 3q that Dove did not betray DigDoug's side (in part 1).
GWvsJohn bet Lilwik 10q, Mrtyuh 15q, and Godzfirefly 25q that Bucky is the reason Creen knows about the cooking of the books.
Mrtyuh bet me 20q that Queen Jillian will use the Western Giants to attack Transylvito before the end of Book 3.
Mrtyuh bet me 20q that NuFaq will be destroyed by Charlie, utilizing the Western Giants in part or whole, before the end of Book 4.
Whispri bet Mrtyuh 8q that if there was, in fact, a traitor (in DigDoug pt 1), Bucky was that traitor.
Kandarin bet Whispri 20q that "Healomancy, like Luckamancy, is not free and borrows numbers from the universe that someone must pay. Erfworld's perpetual state of endless war and Erfworld's ability to heal and clean every living being at dawn are intrinsically linked, and if Parson ever finds a way to stop the former condition, the latter will end as well and Erfworlders will begin to age, sicken and die like Stupidworlders." is substantially correct.
Th Revanchist bet Bladestorm 20q that Jillian is decrypted in book 3.
Silversought bet Bladestorm 20q and Th Revanchist 5q that Duncan will not turn before he is croaked.
bladestorm bet CarniDollMancer 10Q that Albert changes his last name some time during Book 3.
jmp246 bet wih 5q that Wanda was aware that Misty's corpse was available for decryption, but felt that Parson had claimed it and thus was off limits and so didn't mention it
jmp246 bet wih 10q on Misty being able to provide new information about the Erf's afterlife (e.g. meeting the Titans, the "High Score" list, etc)
jmp246 bet wih 5q that whatever is discovered about Erf's afterlife is so tactically useful that plans are made to store future corpses to exploit what is learned
jmp246 bet bladestorm 5q that burying a corpse prevents it from de-popping
jmp246 bet bladestorm 5q that Misty's corpse wasn't destroyed during the volcano or city reconstruction
jmp246 bet bladestorm 20q that Misty will be decrypted and reintroduced to the story
jmp246 bet bladestorm 10q that Parson will order Wanda and Sizemore to go via dragon relay to Gobwin Knob, dig up her corpse, decrypt her, and return on the same turn
jmp246 bet bladestorm 10q that Parson will explicitly resist decrypting Misty (e.g. saying it's "wrong", or "she deserves her rest") but going ahead anyway, feeling it's his Duty, and leading him to question his sense of free will
jmp246 bet bladestorm 10q that Misty will be able to provide new information about the Erf's afterlife (e.g. meeting the Titans, the "High Score" list, etc)
AlphaTheWhite bet CarniDollMancer and Drachefly 20q that Parson is a Hippiemancer. Details on this starting here
and on the next page.
AlphaTheWhite bet CarniDollMancer 5q that if Parson is a Hippiemancer, then he is a Signamancer (same details).
Fjord bet Whispri 20q that, when contacting Stanley from Faq, Wanda used a scroll or some other medium to cast the Thinkagram, rather than casting it herself unhelped. Details on page 47.
TheCommander236 bet bladestorm 5q that a text update centering on the 'good one' warlord promoted by Maggie will occur by the end of book 4's prologues.
CarniDollMancer bet ╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛ 10q that the Tramennis who jumps out of the closet in book 3 is not a ditto copy.
deus EX bet me 25q that Charlescomm tower will be destroyed some time in book 3.
Vendanna bet Mirage GSM 10 and wih and Bladestorm 20 each that we discover before the end of book 4 that Charlie is channeling the Heroine Buds throught all the Archons (this is the special Rush they feel when they contact him, and the cause of the addiction)
Vendanna bet Mirage GSM 10 and wih and Bladestorm 20 each that we discover before the end of book 4 that the "shooting colours" effect when Charlie talks to other rulers by thinkamancy is Charlie using "Flower Power" to affect them through the link
happyturtle bet wih 10q that Parson did not get to negotiate terms of his turning. It was 'You turn or I pursue my claim against GK'
Olentzero bet mortissimus 25q that Lilith shoots Parson by the end of Book 3.
happyturtle bet mortissimus 10q that Turnamancy was involved to put a thumb on the scale of Parson's turning - if not revealed by end of book 3, bet is off.
happyturtle bet Anonymous 167* 10q that GK gets to keep Bouncy because Charlie didn't know about her. *(Twice, though cancelled once)
Sir Dr D bet Anonymous 167 20q that portals only disband non-caster units when they go into the magic kingdom. Any unit can leave, they just can't come back.
Sir Dr D bet Anonymous 167 5q that we find that the rank of Bouncy is FF, before the end of book 3.
Thecommander236 bet happyturtle 15Q that Parson will not allow any of the croaked casters (in portal park, Book 3) to be decrypted as a sign of good will to the MK, or if he does, he let's them go back to their original sides or go back to being free casters.
Squall83 bet wraith203 10q that Lilith will be promoted by the end of book 3 (incl. epilogues)
Keybounce bet me 10q that Book three ends with Charlie no longer in control of CC (but not necessarily that CC is destroyed ... he might have some way to make an heir between now and then)
Lawence of Awabia bet Nightseraph 10q that within a 'few turns' of the first massive Treasury hullaballoo in book 3, Stanley will try to spend more than 1 million Schmuckers on buying new toys (including but not limited to Juggle Elves, City upgrades, promotions, raiment, decorations)
Lawence of Awabia bet Whispri 20q that IF Stanley spends more than 1 million Schmuckers on goodies, he will soon find himself unable to afford upkeep.
Carl bet me 10q that Maggie reaches masterclass as a result of everything that goes down in the Magic Kingdom during/immediately after the CC invasion in book 3, up to when GK's casters and Parson leave the MK.
Squall83 bet wraith203 10q that the next time (starting in Book 3 during Lilith's escape) GK experiments with tri-caster-links to create something new (i.e. not counting attempts to copy CC's equipment, nor for non-creating purposes), it will involve Predictamancy.
NotABot bet Mirage GSM 20q that we discover within 4 updates or book 3 that Borobean incapacitated Artemis on book 3, page 137
Nightseraph bet me 10q that the new heir of transylvito is female.
wih bet whispri 50q that of the current non-casters (e.g. Decrypted infantry/archers/warlord/archons) in the MK at the beginning of book 3, we will see the results of what happens to one or more of them when a side is ended/the Overlord captured, prior to them all leaving or dusting.
Mrtyuh bet ╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛20q that Charlie will be croaked by poison before the end of book 5
Mrtuh bet ╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛20q that we discover that Don intends to trade Caesar to Carpool by the end of book 3
Mrtyuh bet me 20q that King Posbrake was captured, not croaked, when Digdoug fled to the MK, AND that he will become King of some side.
TomaO2 bet Mrtyuh 10q that Transylvitans will talk more about and express more surprise that Stanley cares enough about his units to spend 2M on them, rather than GK being unexpectedly wealthy, in response to the ransom demand being accepted.
Mrtyuh bet Bladestorm 10q that Wanda will decrypt Jillian's Jester (Jillian alive or dead at the time), including incidental repair during decryption, before the end of book 5.
Mrtyuh bet Bladestorm 10q that, if King Posbake survived the end of DigDoug 1, he gets his ring back
Mrtyuh bet Bladestorm 10q that Charlie will attempt to download himself into Parson before the end of book 5, in an attempt to avoid his fate
ccc bet Vendanna 10q that at some point before the end of Book 4, Parson will be shown wearing Transylvitan livery; either because he has been turned, or because there is Foolamancy involved.
ccc bet Vendanna 10q that at some point before the end of Book 4, Vanna will be shown in Gobwin Knob livery - either Turned, uncroaked, or Foolamancy.
ccc bet bladestorm 50q that Before Maggie's term as Transylvitan prisoner ends (whether by her death, her repatriation, or any other means) she will use the Dollamancer's doll as a remotely controlled body, pulling on the G-strings connecting her to the doll to move it like a puppet. This will be used as part of an escape attempt.
Bladestorm bet Crisco 10q that Ace's guns cannot auto-specialize because of Ace's own inability and not due to a required link-up, tools, materials, or other discipline involved.
NightSeraph bet me 20q that Jillian does not betray Transylvito within 4 turns of her setting out from FAQ immediately after capturing Ansom.
CarniDollMancer bet bladestorm 25q that Marie is getting Decrypted.
Itoh bet wih 20q that Sizemore will become a masterclass dirtamancer by realizing that Erfworld is alive. Void if unresolved at end of book 4.
Procrastimancer bet Shai Hulud 10q that Transylvito's heir pops with a distinctly Faqian air.
iwinatlife bet me 30q that Janis's plan had input from TGMTTA
Nightseraph's 20q to my 50q that Stanley dies in Book 3 (including epilogues)RESOLVED BETS AND POOLS ARE HERE