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 Post Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 2:28 pm 
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True, but that's a fairly simple calculation. The more abstract one like what are the odds Charlie is behind the missing gobwins and future events requires more speculation.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 3:58 pm 
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    Man oh man, do I hope that the bracer is a form of magic that neither Earth nor Erfworld has seen before:

    A truly random random number generator.

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    Last edited by effataigus on Thu Jun 30, 2011 9:31 am, edited 239044 times in total.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:32 pm 
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    I think it has a monster manual, players handbook and dmg, and can only output the numbers and percentage based on die rolls.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:36 pm 
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    effataigus wrote:
    Man oh man, do I hope that the bracer is a form of magic that neither Earth nor Erfworld has seen before:

    A truly random random number generator.


    I see what you did there.

    And it's bloody hilarious :lol:

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     Post Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:43 pm 
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    Just to reopen the discussion on who's who, I'd like to throw in my 2 cents.

    Basically, I think the upper row guys are Obi-wan Kenobi, Carl Sagan (obviously) and John Constantine.

    For Obi-Wan, just look at this picture:
    Image
    That's the exact face and expression, also his default expression in the new movies.

    Carl Sagan is again obvious since he's been shown earlier in the Magic Kingdom.

    For the last one... Outward chin, short (messy) hair and stubble, that just screams John Constantine.

    For the bottom left girl, maybe Zatanna? I mean we've seen Zatanna and Zatara in the Magic Kingdom already, so it's not too much of a stretch. Still, no hat makes it harder to justify. I guess we don't have word from on high who's who :/

    And I want to throw out the guess that the upper left guy is Marty McFly! That would be heavy, doc!

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     Post Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 8:02 pm 
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    Quote:
    The uncertainty with the bracer is 0%. It knows the exact numbers for unit stats and combat, probably, so there's no uncertainty in combat calculations.


    That...doesn't appear to exactly be the case, is the problem. Unit stats measure their power, but it's not a 100% chance that a high-level unit will beat a lower-level unit, even in a straight fight. Stuff like misdirection, fumbles, specific choice of targets and all that sort of thing seems to swing battles more than just raw numbers.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 9:13 pm 
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    Is it possible that Erf has no equivalent to the Random Event Generator, much like early video games like Pac-Man lacked?

    The ghosts in Pac-Man actually followed a predictable path, and only altered it upon "seeing" Pac-Man. So the only randomness was the player's input. The player's input choice at each corridor intersection would alter Ghost movement. With enough time and analysis, patterns could be detected and you could then plan dozens of levels worth of movement to maximize your survival.

    If the "worlds" are similar, then the Bracer could predict something similar to Charlie's odds of interference by a ratio of scenarios. The number of Gobwins found was, effectively, zero. The bracer could then consider the variety of reasonable scenarios in which Gobwins just did not pop due to "roll fumbles" and compare them to reasonable scenarios in which outside influence is affecting those rolls to become "fumbles". Then from that, it could express the percentage of those scenarios where Charlie was the outside influence.

    Fate would still have an influence, here, inasmuch as there could be an overwhelming number of choices that Wanda could make, in which she would still acquire an Arkentool. To continue the metaphor, it would be as if Wanda were surrounded by Power Pills and the "Ghosts" would always either be hounding her heels but never catch her, or would never "see" her and pursue closely enough. Although it must be said that Fate could also be probability based; Wanda's Predictomancer couldn't preclude a scenario where Wanda, upon hearing the prophecy, decided it was too traumatic a future to withstand and immediately "self-disbanded". Or that some level 1 Stabber got seven "natural 20s" in a row for max damage on her defensive guard and got another two or three max damage hits on her. But in Predicting the future, the vision seen for that scenario would have been faint and extremely hazy, while the visions of Arkentools dancing in Wanda's hands were effectively in HD.

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     Post Posted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:31 am 
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    GaryThunder wrote:
    Ytaker wrote:
    The uncertainty with the bracer is 0%. It knows the exact numbers for unit stats and combat, probably, so there's no uncertainty in combat calculations.
    That...doesn't appear to exactly be the case, is the problem. Unit stats measure their power, but it's not a 100% chance that a high-level unit will beat a lower-level unit, even in a straight fight. Stuff like misdirection, fumbles, specific choice of targets and all that sort of thing seems to swing battles more than just raw numbers.


    Ytaker is right about pure numerical simulations. Given a fair 6-sided die, the mean is 3.5, and standard deviation, kurtosis, etc. each have some value. The uncertainties on these values are all ZERO. The same applies to larger more complicated calculations. The crits and fumbles will be included in the results and not form a part of this error.

    When you need to mix in real-world data or even more so, multiple weighted models, you do not have any absolute certainty in any of those values, but you can have greater or lesser degrees of certainty.

    effataigus wrote:
    Man oh man, do I hope that the bracer is a form of magic that neither Earth nor Erfworld has seen before:

    A truly random random number generator.


    A Stern-Gerlach apparatus isn't good enough for you?


    Last edited by drachefly on Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:44 pm 
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    Renter wrote:
    Just to reopen the discussion on who's who, I'd like to throw in my 2 cents.

    Basically, I think the upper row guys are Obi-wan Kenobi, Carl Sagan (obviously) and John Constantine.

    For Obi-Wan, just look at this picture:
    Image
    That's the exact face and expression, also his default expression in the new movies.

    Carl Sagan is again obvious since he's been shown earlier in the Magic Kingdom.

    For the last one... Outward chin, short (messy) hair and stubble, that just screams John Constantine.

    For the bottom left girl, maybe Zatanna? I mean we've seen Zatanna and Zatara in the Magic Kingdom already, so it's not too much of a stretch. Still, no hat makes it harder to justify. I guess we don't have word from on high who's who :/

    And I want to throw out the guess that the upper left guy is Marty McFly! That would be heavy, doc!

    No! Aristotle is a given!
    Image
    look! even the hair matches!
    I'd rather discuss whether the one on the upper left corner is Squall Leonhart. It's quite possible as there is another game reference with princess Zelda.
    Squall thinks a lot in the game Final Fantasy VIII and the guardian forces have to be linked with the characters too. It would make sense to me. Also the stuff fits.
    Image

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     Post Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:30 pm 
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    The jacket is insufficiently furry.

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