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 Post Posted: Sun Dec 28, 2014 9:19 am 
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All the time I've been making predictions about what will happen, I never even knew this thread existed. Too bad, because I've got a winning record. (Against who? Myself? Rob's storytelling?) Please excuse me while I blow my entire credit limit allocation on a bunch of predictions made all at once.

Now for the rules for each bet. Sub-bets (the ones indented) can be bet on independently of their main bet, and you can either bet with me or against me on each prediction I make. Winnings for each prediction are split by pool with my bet counting for double weight, due to me coming up with the prediction in the first place. (That means if I bet 25 for something, and the other bets amount to 25 for and 300 against, I would stand to win 200 instead of 150.) So here we go.

  1. I've said this one for a while, and current events look in my favor, but it doesn't hurt to bring it up again. Parson and Tramennis will agree to work together to take down Charlie, with the common ground being that both want peace on Erf, and they see Charlie as a threat to that ideal. 15 quatloos on this one.
    1. My first sub-bet! At some point during or after the negotiations for an alliance, one of the two will mention something about improving upon the Titans' work in the context of bringing peace on Erf. 5 quatloos.
  2. Despite Charlie's assertion that Parson is not a Caster (which is technically true in a traditional sense), Parson will still be able to cast a spell that is not the one on the scroll Charlie gave him. 10 quatloos.
    1. Parson will have to learn, starting from a basic level, how to do this, unlike how an actual Caster has the innate knowledge of how to cast within their discipline. If Stupidworld-based warlords have to grow up and learn their craft first, why not its "casters" too? 10 quatloos.
    2. Among the magical disciplines, Parson will first learn some brand of Hippiemancy, defined as being able to cast any spell within the class. If Parson only ever manages to cast non-discipline spells by the end of the main storyline, or no spells at all, this prediction will also fail. 5 quatloos.
  3. Parson will not be the only warlord who can survive passing through a portal to the Magic Kingdom. Croaked or Decrypted units passing through won't count, or else this would have already happened. 10 quatloos.
    1. Another 10 quatloos say the first warlord who makes the previous prediction come to pass will not be from Stupidworld.
  4. Not technically a sub-bet of any of the above, so it gets its own space. 5 quatloos on an Erfworlder gaining or improving an ability in a manner previously unknown or thought impossible by Erfworlder standards. Most likely due to studying or mock combat training.
  5. Another standalone, but a two parter. 5 quatloos on Parson having a vision of how peace on Erf should look like, and that vision including Thinkamancers becoming schoolteachers or other instructors. If either part fails, I lose.
  6. I got 25 quatloos left to spend here, so I'll wrap it up with a few bold predictions about Tramennis. At least one of the following will come to pass:
    • Tramennis will see the Magic Kingdom. Thinkamancy "background" counts too.
    • Tramennis will be called or equated to (to the effect of) a Hippiemancer warlord, but if he is associated with a specific discipline, it won't be Signamancy. (Tramennis still isn't a Parson clone, even if I'm saying Tramennis will develop many more similar traits to Parson's.)
    • Tramennis will learn how to cast a spell. Not saying whether he'll actually cast one, but someone will teach him how a spell is cast, and he'll understand some or all of it.
    20 quatloos on this, and the remaining 5 on Parson playing a part in at least one of these actions.

These are all obviously long-term predictions, so I'll use my future credit limit on a time limit. Each of these predictions will come to pass by the latter of October 28, 2015 (10 months from now, so it's a valid bet) or by Book 3, Update 200. For this, I'm distributing my next 100 quatloos limit between the above predictions for the same amounts. These will be betting pools too, but double weight would apply to all bets that are made by the end of February of 2015, not just mine, and no new bets will be accepted by end of April. After all, the passage of time without a particular prediction coming to pass would still reduce the odds of it passing by the time limit, regardless of information making it more or less likely to pass at all, so it wouldn't be fair to keep it open too long.

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My predictions post on the betting thread.

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     Post Posted: Sun Dec 28, 2014 9:29 am 
    Print Book 2 & Draw Book 3 Supporter This user is a Tool! Year of the Dwagon Supporter This user was a Tool before it was cool Here for the 10th Anniversary Has collected at least one unit Erfworld Bicycle® Playing Cards supporter
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    Also, 10 Shmuckers tip (Schmuckers? I've seen it spelled that way too.) for each of the first ten people to win one of the 10-month bets against me. Shmuckers winners are decided first by the time of a winning bet resolving, then by the time of the winner entering into that bet's pool.

    I guess I like the number 10 today.

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     Post Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 10:33 am 
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    The Return of Misty

    With the side having a clear need of Lookamancy, it's only natural that Parson take a few moments to remember Misty. And now that he knows that decrypted casters are able to cast instead of being infantry, and Duty compelling him to pursue leads that have a chance of success, I predict, and am willing to take bets on:
    • 5q that burying a corpse prevents it from de-popping
    • 5q that Misty's corpse wasn't destroyed during the volcano or city reconstruction
    • 5q that Wanda was aware that Misty's corpse was available for decryption, but felt that Parson had claimed it and thus was off limits and so didn't mention it
    • 20q on Misty decryption and reintroduction to the story
    • 10q on this Parson ordering Wanda and Sizemore via dragon relay to go to Gobwin Knob, dig up her corpse, decrypt her, and return on the same turn
    • 10q on Parson explicitly attempting to resist decrypting Misty (e.g. saying it's "wrong", or "she deserves her rest") but going ahead anyway, feeling it's his Duty, and leading him to question his sense of free will
    • 10q on Misty being able to provide new information about the Erf's afterlife (e.g. meeting the Titans, the "High Score" list, etc)
    • 5q that whatever is discovered about Erf's afterlife is so tactically useful that plans are made to store future corpses to exploit what is learned

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     Post Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:32 pm 
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    Very interesting, I like the way you think. I'll take the following:

    5q that Wanda was aware that Misty's corpse was available for decryption, but felt that Parson had claimed it and thus was off limits and so didn't mention it
    10q on Misty being able to provide new information about the Erf's afterlife (e.g. meeting the Titans, the "High Score" list, etc)
    5q that whatever is discovered about Erf's afterlife is so tactically useful that plans are made to store future corpses to exploit what is learned

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     Post Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:01 am 
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    jmp246 wrote:
    The Return of Misty

    With the side having a clear need of Lookamancy, it's only natural that Parson take a few moments to remember Misty. And now that he knows that decrypted casters are able to cast instead of being infantry, and Duty compelling him to pursue leads that have a chance of success, I predict, and am willing to take bets on:
    • 5q that burying a corpse prevents it from de-popping
    • 5q that Misty's corpse wasn't destroyed during the volcano or city reconstruction
    • 5q that Wanda was aware that Misty's corpse was available for decryption, but felt that Parson had claimed it and thus was off limits and so didn't mention it
    • 20q on Misty decryption and reintroduction to the story
    • 10q on this Parson ordering Wanda and Sizemore via dragon relay to go to Gobwin Knob, dig up her corpse, decrypt her, and return on the same turn
    • 10q on Parson explicitly attempting to resist decrypting Misty (e.g. saying it's "wrong", or "she deserves her rest") but going ahead anyway, feeling it's his Duty, and leading him to question his sense of free will
    • 10q on Misty being able to provide new information about the Erf's afterlife (e.g. meeting the Titans, the "High Score" list, etc)
    • 5q that whatever is discovered about Erf's afterlife is so tactically useful that plans are made to store future corpses to exploit what is learned

    I will take the rest that wih did not already take.

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     Post Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 8:21 am 
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    I was perusing the first page to look at everyone's amounts and I noticed that mine is missing a bet. It says 20 outstanding, which accounts for my bet that Forecastle will become a Seafarer (he won't, morti and Lipkin are going to end up winning that), and also my bet about Albert changing is name.

    It does not include my bet against Alpha the White. We have a 20q bet that Parson is a Hippie (my bet is that he is not) and a 5q bet that if he IS a Hippie, he is a Signamancer (again, my bet is on no). 5q bet is nullified if he is not a Hippie.

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    A couple things:
    A: It is Shockmancy, not ShockAmancy.
    B: Faq as a side is not an acronym.
    C: Starting a theory from the point of view that characters have given false information (knowingly or unknowingly) is not a valid way to build an argument.

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     Post Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:08 am 
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    The OP was getting out of hand, so I'm splitting it up. Here's the list of resolved bets:

    Pool #1: predict when, in terms of updates, Parson exits the Magic Kingdom. Bets will be taken until comic 65 or text update 52 is up, whichever comes first. Manner of exit and destination are not subjects of the pool.
    I put ten quatloos on his exiting during comic 66.
    DeathTheKid put 10 on comic 68.
    DeathTheKid won.
    ----
    BCCroaker bet me 50 q that Rob doesn't get to 15,000 words for IP(TSF) by the end of November (2011), declared update time. Bet is off if comic-style updates resume during November.
    I won
    ----
    vintermann has bet me 10q that once Goodminton falls, Wanda will not in fact be captured by an opposing side, but escape through the portal in the dungeon to become a barbarian in the Magic Kingdom (temporarily, obviously).
    I won.
    ----
    Whispri bet me 10q that Jillian pops in Wanda's personal space.
    I won
    ~~~~
    Pool #2: Predict the update in which the tower of Spacerock is destroyed by siege creatures and/or equipment. Updates after 100 and 'never' will not be accepted as unique entries, only as '101+'. Nearest bettor wins, in case it lies unequally between bets; if equally between them, the pot is split.
    I put 10 quatloos on comic 81, 2 on 101+.
    Sixty has 10 quatloos on 101+.
    Agarwaen has 10 on update 68.
    Note: So, Agarwaen wins with 74 or less (update 74 was it - right on the border!)
    Agarwaen won.
    ~~~~
    Pool #4: "the next type of caster to whom we'll be introduced. We would have to be given a name and disipline. They would have to actually appear in the scene, not merely be mentioned. It has to be a caster type which we have not before met. That would make the options: Findamancer, Mathamancer, Weirdomancer, Changemancer, Signamancer, Date-a-mancer, Shockamancer or Rhyme-o-mancer."
    Mrtyuh put 10 on signamancer
    I put 10 on date-a-mancer
    Whispri put 10 on weirdomancer
    Mrtyuh won (volume 0, episode 30)
    ~~~~
    Pool #3, take 2: first update during which Wanda has Olive as her Chief Caster. Nearest gets it, ties split proportionally to bet.
    I put 10q on 27.
    Mrtyuh put 10q on 65.
    (we found out for sure during update 33 that this condition had already been fulfilled since update 28)
    ~~~~
    0beron bet SNfinity 10q that the "figure" seen in the tower by Jillian is in fact Charlie.
    SNfinity won.
    ~~~~
    Whispri bet me 3q that Jillian will fail to take the City by storm. (The city being the one with the mannequin, where they ate the poisoned rations)
    I won.
    ~~~~
    Cloudbreaker bet me 10q that Jillian pops out Bart's eye with a salad fork before the end of Book 0. She didn't.
    ~~~~
    Kandarin bet Vintermann 10q that the outcome of the air battle over Spacerock will hinge on the actions of Don's personal bat. Vintermann won.
    ~~~~
    Mrtyuh bet Oberon (Oh) 10q that un-Tommy will decay until he ceases to exist (as opposed to being destroyed in combat or disbanded,) and this process will be complete before Wanda leaves Goodminton's service.
    Mrtyuh conceded, but it's still possible, however unlikely, we find out that Wanda went down fighting.
    ~~~~
    Bladestorm bet 20q to Whispri's 10q that there will be no combat attacks against any of GK's forces (wherever they may be, MK, GK, SR, wherever) during pages 94 through 99 of Book 2. Whispri won.
    ~~~~
    Nueamin bets mortissimus 50q that Parson enters the portal (to Jetstone's capital, Spacerock) before December.
    Mortissimus won.
    ~~~~
    Bladestorm ran a pool on the next sort of caster to appear, and the result was:
    Whispri +20
    effataigus -5
    bladestorm -12
    drachefly -2
    Nnelg -1
    ~~~~
    POOL 6: Same as pool 1, but with a later closing date: Update during which Parson's head enters the portal. 10q exactly, pick one update that hasn't been taken yet. Broken up into rounds, based on when we got new information. Round 1 started after update 95, and will end upon the next MK update.
    Round 1
    Nnelg: 101
    Neuamin: 100
    bladestorm: 99 WON
    Drachefly: 98
    mortissimus: 97
    SNfinity: 96
    Round 2:
    bladestorm: 99 WON
    Drachefly: 98
    mortissimus: 97
    Round 3:
    Nnelg: 100
    bladestorm: 99 WON
    mortissimus: 98
    ~~~~
    Agarwaen bet me 10 that Parson will not enter the spacerock portal before the fall of the city.
    I won.
    ~~~~
    DeathTheKid has bet me 10 that Parson will level before leaving the MK this time.
    I won.
    ----
    BLANDCorporatio bet Mrtyuh 5q that before leaving the MK, Parson will level. Twice.
    Mrtyuh won.
    ~~~~
    Nakedkali bet Mortissimus and me 20q each, and Nnelg 2q, and Whispri 3q, and Effataigus 5q, that Parson does not enter the Spacerock portal in 2012.
    We won.
    ----
    Nnelg bet Whispri 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2. He did.
    ~~~~
    Youngstormlord bet Bladestorm 10q that Wanda will either shoot or stab Olive in the back in the next update, while Olive is preoccupied with Jill. She didn't.
    ~~~~
    I bet Bladestorm 5q that Sylvia croaks this battle (Spacerock)
    She parched in update 102.
    ~~~~
    Atomic bet me 10q that in the next update of IPtSF (page 64), King Banhammer tries to stop Jillian from harming/engaging Olive yet again. Only this time, Banhammer will be told off by Marie when she Predicts the results of the current skirmish.
    Neither occurred.
    ~~~~
    The Croakamantic Betting Pool (in the thread of the same name), round 1, yielded:
    Bladestorm put in 3 and won the pot, for a net of 7.
    I lost 3
    WhirdCheese lost 3
    Sir_Dr_D lost 1
    ~~~~
    Mrtyuh bet me 5q that Parson and Sylvia will hook up at least once before the End of Book 4.
    She was dusted in book 2.
    ~~~~
    MarbitChow bet 1q to Nnelg's 4q that Decrypted Slately croaks Clone Slately. (we didn't yet see Slately's body destroyed, but this does seem an unlikely combination)
    Clonely was tossed into a red dwagon's mouth.
    ~~~~
    Oberon (Oh) wagers Bladestorm 20 quatloos that Jetstone does not fall this day. (see original post for details on definition of 'day'). It did.
    ~~~~
    bladestorm bet me 10q that Charlie is a carnymancer. He was.
    ~~~~
    sheepfly bet me 10q that Ace defects from Jetstone voluntarily (is not turned by magic or decryption) by the end of book 2. He croaked instead.
    ~~~~
    My 50q to Bladestorm's 5q that Charlie isn't actually secretly Olive. Based on vol 0 ep 66, we agreed that they aren't.
    ~~~~
    mantimeforgot's 1q to my 1000q that of the four prediction paragraphs at the top of his post at the bottom of page 14, three are more or less true. Of the four, one was that parson wouldn't make it to Jetstone (he did) and another was that Sylvia would be the last unit standing a Jetstone (she wasn't). So, there we go.
    ----
    five-thirteen bet me 10 q that Charlie has veiled Archons in Spacerock airspace. He conceded a last June and I thought I'd let it go a bit longer, but by now I'm convinced too.
    ~~~~
    erwaro bet Whispri 10q that no casters are involved in stopping the fire at Spacerock. Details on page 23. As it turned out, Sizemore put it out on book 2 page 111. Like a boss.
    ~~~~
    Sixty has bet saladman 10 that Sizemore will enter spacerock via the portal soon after Parson. Shall we call it 'this turn', to put an end date on it? (yes) He did on book 2 page 111.
    ~~~~
    Bland bet effataigus 10 that Wanda will express 'decrypt Jack' thoughts before the close of Book 2. She did on page 111.
    ~~~~
    LordBiscuit bet Fjord 10q that no corpses created in the battle for Spacerock are moved through the portal to be decrypted on the other side. Bet ends when the corpses are decrypted or when book 2 ends, whichever comes first. (we saw decrypted in the MK on book 2 page 113)
    ~~~~
    GJC's 5q to my 10 that Parson's plan involves using Decrypted troops to directly attack MK casters, with the aim of gaining a degree of control over the MK. (It sure looked like that starting book 2 page 113. Could be reversed depending on outcome) (As of the end of book 2, we took this to be so close to splitting the difference it ended as a push)
    ~~~~
    bladestorm bet whispri 5q that Artemis doesn't get decrypted by Wanda. She appears to have been.
    ~~~~
    Mortissimus bet Walpurgisborn 10q that no live (not decrypted or uncroaked) Jack will appear before the end of book 2. Mortissimus won.
    ~~~~
    bladestorm bet fjord 30q that we'll see in book 2 that the hammer can only levitate, not fly (see page 25). Fjord won.
    ----
    Sixty has bet me 10 that Parson will prevent himself from having access to the bracer during Book 2. I won.
    ----
    effataigus bet Mrtyuh 10q that Jillian will come back to JS (or an engagement involving Tram outside of JS) before the end of book 2. Mrtyuh won.
    ~~~~
    Mrtyuh bet me 5q that Tramennis will be captured by Gobwin Knob by the End of Book 2. I won.
    ~~~~
    Nnelg bet Balerion 5q that someone important (ex. Parson, Wanda, Jack, etc.) defects from GK by the end of Book 2. Balerion won.
    ~~~~
    Itoh bets Whispri 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied (at least informally) with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2 (not counting a CC alliance with GK), and 15q for the same deal with the Arkenhammer. Whispri won both.
    ~~~~
    I bet Bladestorm 5q that if Jack does croak this turn, he is eventually decrypted (and if he's not croaked this turn, bet is off) (The turn in Book 2). I won.
    ~~~~
    Mortissimus bet Bladestorm 5Q that if Jack is dead he will be decrypted by the end of book 2. Void if he did not die on page 105 due to some mancy or trickery. Mortissimus won.
    ~~~~
    Mrtyuh bet Whispri 10q that Cubbins will become the first decrypted caster. Whispri won.
    ~~~~
    I bet ThisIsNotDan 10q to his 5q that the person who returned from the MK with Parson and appears to be Jack is not actually Bowie, the changeamancer from Unaroyal. Since nothing was mentioned after Jack's decryption and then the book ended, I'm going to go out on a limb and say I won this one.
    ~~~~
    I bet Fjord, Lilwik, Takei no Yuurei, Neuamin, and EthericSentinel 10q each that Banhammer did not disband Jillian's mount at the end of Book 0, ep. 69. He totally did.
    ~~~~
    Zilfallon bet Neuamin 10q on Banhammer attempting to disband Jillian and failing to do so (not that he already has). He didn't, at least not during episodes 69 or 70, and as no time was specified as the end of that, I'll take that to mean 'this scene'.
    ~~~~
    TheLionTamer bet Takei no Yuurei 5q that Jack uses Foolamancy to somehow interfere with the disbanding order in Book 0 episode 69, making Banhammer either disband the wrong unit, or none at all. That's not what happened
    ~~~~
    Nnelg bets 10q to Bladestorm's 5q that Jillian croaks Olive Branch after the latter becomes Overlady of Haffaton. She totally did, after she totally did.
    ~~~~
    Kaed bet mortissimus 10q that Charlie somehow wrangles a magical contract with Faq as part of the trial of Olive Branch, that stipulates they forget everything they know about his past afterwards. She died before any such contract was made.
    ~~~~
    GLC's 20 to Shai_hulud's 10 that, in the course of the trial it is not proven that:
    1: Olive was not responsible for the attack on Goodminton (that is to say, she didn't give the orders herself)
    2: That Olive was under the flowers' influence when deciding to imprison her Overlady or attack Charlie.
    Olive is dead, which I consider likely enough to moot the trial that I'm calling this one.
    ~~~~
    Dalen Mantil bet Whispri 10q that the broom Jillian (ordered) shot down in episode 65 landed in the Garden and set it ablaze, and Olive meets her end trying and failing to put it out. Jillian croaks Olive (indirectly), satisfying Fate, and everything else (Faq, the Jillian-Loj relationship, the present non-existence of the flowers) is ready and waiting for Stanley to swoop in with his dwagons. (... or... something else)
    ~~~~
    WhirdCheese bet effataigus 13q that the scroll brings whomever it is used on to Charlescomm's capital. If the scroll is not used by the end of the second book nobody wins.... and it wasn't, so nobody won.
    ~~~~
    Xarx's 20q to Bladestorm's 10q that Olive croaks by the end of Book 0. She did.
    ~~~~
    Xarx bet GWvsJohn and MadZuri 10 each that the troops outside the El-Efbaum are veils cast by archons. At least some of them weren't (which leaves little room for suspicion that others were).
    ~~~~
    Kaed bet Mortissimus 10q that Crapsack set the garden ablaze. He didn't.
    ~~~~
    Mrtyuh bet Nnelg 5q that King County's honor duel was against Haffaton, and it will play an important role in Haffaton's downfall. Nope.
    ~~~~
    Takei no Yuurei bet Xarx 5q that the broom started the fire. It didn't.
    ~~~~
    Mortissimus bet Xarx 5q that the army outside the gates of El-Efbaum is (former?) natural allies of Haffaton. At least some of them were (which leaves little room for suspicion that others weren't)
    ~~~~
    Xarx bet mortissiums 5q that the thinkagram in Epilogue 10 wasn't really from Maggie. It was.
    ~~~~
    GJC bet Lamech 10q that, by the end of Jetstone's turn, Tramennis will be ruler of Jetstone. A Slately clone depopping at the end of turn counts. He was.
    ~~~~
    Lamech bet SNfinity 10q that Ansom became king of Jetstone when real Slately died. See page 11 for exact terms. Anyway, he didn't.
    ~~~~
    Shai-hulud bet mortissimus 10q that Wanda has seen what Charlie really looks like, if only briefly, by the end of the current (Jillian/FAQ) storyline of Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower). She does not need to meet him. (but no such thing occurred)
    ~~~~
    Oberon (Oh) wagers Bladestorm 20 quatloos that Parson and at least but not limited to Wanda do pass through the Jetstone portal (from the MK, not to it - this was after they'd come through). This does not have to be together, but it will be this day. (Wanda passed through the Spacerock portal on page 111, but it was no longer the Jetstone portal)
    ~~~~
    Pool of what Parson's genius plan is. Each entry is 5q. Details on page 26.
    Bladestorm: Link Ace to Sizemore and turn the entire city into a large golem unit.
    Drachefly: Sizemore gathers the dust of the dusted for re-decryption.
    Shai_hulud: cages with traps under/around them.
    Fjord: A tri-link Parson/Maggie/Sizemore for a giant Signamancer/Dirtamancer casting on the city
    *winner?* Drachefly: Something that is not a tri-link.
    Werebiscuit: Something that involves the bracer but not the scroll (did not directly involve the bracer - conceded)
    ~~~~
    Takei no Yuurei bet Mortissimus 5q that some form of mindwipe happens before the end of book 0. There totally was.
    ~~~~
    Takei no Yuurei bet Bladestorm 10q that no more than 2 units die in MK by the end of the turn. No units died in MK.
    ~~~~
    Kandarin bet Bladestorm 10q that sometime in Book 0, Wanda will try to uncroak a caster and find out the hard way that they can no longer cast. Unfortunately, this is no longer readily resolvable. Wanda uncroaked Olive offscreen and we never saw her reaction. However, given that even Jillian knew that Olive couldn't cast - didn't even ask whether she might - I'm going to go with Bladestorm on this one.
    ~~~~
    Mrtyuh bet Whispri 20q that Delkey will break alliance with Homekey during the battle (fake archon attack during DigDoug). They waited until afterwards.
    ~~~~
    mortissimus bet Godzfirefly 10q that Charlescom took the City of Homekey while Digdoug was unconscious. Null if we don't find out what happened before the end of Digdoug pt 1. We didn't find this out.
    ~~~~
    Spriteless bet Lilwik 10q that Prince Creen will be struck by lightning by the end of DigDoug part 1. He was.
    ~~~~
    I bet 10q to Lilwik's 16q (auto-odds) that Doug will end up in the sack with Dove Barstool (by the end of Digdoug part 1, just in case he shows up later). They didn't.
    ~~~~
    Whispri bet mortissimus 4q that Dove Barstool's plan in Digdoug part 1 will work. It didn't.
    ~~~~
    Gozfirefly bet bladestorm 25q that Posbrake would survive to the end of the first DigDoug. He appears not to have.
    ~~~~
    Godzfirefly bet Mrtyuh 10q that the main character of the next Kickstarter story (after May 2 2014) will be a caster, rather than a warlord, non-caster ruler, or other non-caster. It was a warlord - Forecastle.
    ~~~~
    POOL: Location of first panel of book 3. 20q to buy in. At most one guess per day. Most specific correct answer wins.
    YesNinja: the FAQ war room
    I take the idea that It's in the field.
    Bladestorm claimed the thinkamancers' temple. He won!
    Mrtyuh claims a Jetstone camp
    ~~~~
    Cloudbreaker bet DeathTheKid 10 that "decrypted casters have no juice, and can therefore only cast spells from scrolls." Page 1 of book 3, Ace participates in 2 links without the aid of scrolls.
    ~~~~
    I bet Shai-hulud 10q that within one full turn (of the food fight), Stanley is captured. He wasn't.
    ~~~~
    erwaro bet wih 5 q that, before the beginning of Gobwin Knob's next turn (after book 2), we will know definitively whether or not there are living Hobgobwins in Spacerock. We don't.
    ~~~~
    Bladestorm bet focused and Th Revanchist 5q each that Jillian is caught by a Gwiffon during the first fall she suffers during the air battle at the beginning of book 3. She wasn't.
    ~~~~
    Shai Hulud bet Whispri 8q that Ansom will deliberately roll to save Jillian before they hit the ground during their fall during the air battle at the beginning of book 3. He didn't.
    ~~~~
    Bladestorm bet Th Revanchist 10q that Jillian survives the (first) fall she takes during the air battle at the beginning of book 3. She did.
    ~~~~
    Nnelg bet effataigus 10q that Charlie was not behind GK's recent lack of gobwins. He was.
    ~~~~
    ryuplaneswalker bet Fabo 10q that (Starting the turn Charlie contacts Jillian about Stanley incoming) Charlie will not attack The Tool, or The City of GK, however the tool will get himself into trouble that Parson has to save him from, and while Parson is distracted Charlie will take advantage and attack somewhere unexpected. Valid until Parson is no longer distracted by the Jillian/Stanley fight.
    Charlie did get things out of it, but he did not attack. So, Fabo wins. **
    ~~~~
    Bladestorm bet nakedkali and Th Revanchist 5q each that Ansom does not croak Vanna or break her link with Charlie during the dwagon/megalo fight at the beginning of book 3. He didn't.
    ~~~~
    -D- bet Th Revanchist 10q that Jillian gets captured by Gobwin Knob (and or Decrypted units of Gobwin Knob) in the air battle at the beginning of book 3. She wasn't.
    ~~~~
    focused bet wih 10q that GK's turn will end before any archons appear or are shown to already be in the hex in which Jillian and Stanley have the air battle at the beginning of book 3. We have not gained such evidence, so, focused wins.
    ~~~~
    ryuplaneswalker bet Th revanchist 10q on "Parson capturing Jillian not croaking so he has a chip to use against Charlie." I'll take that to mean and if neither, bet is off, and it ended up being neither.
    ~~~~
    Bladestorm bet Daefaroth 10q that if Stanley and Jillian meet on the field of battle (against each other), Stanley is the victor of this meeting. He was not the victor - it was a draw.
    ~~~~
    Nnelg bet me 3q that Jillian's heir will be female. Book 3, page 40: male
    ~~~~
    Lipkin's 5q to bladestorm's 10q that when Jillian's heir pops, it's a caster. Book 3, page 40: not a caster.
    ~~~~
    Fabo bet Bladestorm 25q that GK high command are actively monitoring the first scene featuring Lilith in Jetstone via pliers-connection to Lilith. She was!
    ~~~~
    Shai-Hulud bet 0beron 20q that Bunny was excluded from recognition as a Thinkamancer by the Great Minds due to prejudice. We quickly found that it could have been many things, but it doesn't appear to be anti-vampire prejudice.
    ~~~~
    Fabo bet Whispri 25q that Lilith will turn to Jetstone and use her knowledge of Parson and GK to try to get him to consider at least a truce, possibly an alliance.
    Fabo loses if she
    a) doesn't turn and is delivered to Charlie, or
    b) does turn, but does not or can not try to get Tramennis to consider this option.
    Case A occurred.
    ~~~~
    TheCommander236 bet Xarx 10q that Maggie was reacting to something to do with Juggles on book 3 page 89. It was not.
    ~~~~
    Fjord bet 40q to bladestorm's 20q that Wanda is what Maggie was distressed about on book 3 page 89. It was about Wanda.
    ~~~~
    Xarx bet bladestorm 20q that Maggie was reacting to something Charlie-related rather than something Juggles-related, and if neither, void. It was Charlie.
    ~~~~
    Xarx bet ╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛, Anonymous 167, almondsandrain, DunkelMentat, and me 10q each that blond archon's livery/aura are actually changing color where Lilith is touching her (on Book 3 page 95), and it's not just an overlay of Lilith's aura that we're seeing.
    Unless her livery was turning red in anticipation of massive bleeding, that wasn't it.
    ~~~~
    Mortissimus and Lipkin put up 10q each to CarniDollMancer's 5 each that Forecastle will not get any Seafarer special during the story of Duke Forecastle, pt 1. NOPE.
    ~~~~
    Lipkin bet Whispri 5q that Maggie and/or Wanda will kill Lilith before leaving Thinkspace. She ain't dead, but that link is.
    ~~~~
    Shai-hulud bet Whispri 50q that Lilith would kill Charlie by Book 3, page 99.
    ~~~~
    Mirage GSM bet 20q to my 10q that the DOS attack on Lilith was initiated by Charlie and not by the Archons. It was!
    ~~~~
    Mirage GSM bet wih 10q that Charlie stopped the DOS attack because of fatigue, lack of juice or some limitation of the dish - he was not able to keep the attack going any longer; no external influence made him stop. Page 107 showed he could have kept going but wanted to be able to do other things.
    ~~~~
    TomaO2 bet Fabo 20q that Charlie's treasury was high enough that he'd hit the 5M cap on payments for cease-fire violations. Page 107 showed he was many, many times that level.
    ~~~~
    Wraith203 bet bladestorm 30q that Lilith triggering the contract was not the reason the treasury was empty... when that was in fact precisely why it was empty
    ~~~~
    Carnidollmancer bet Anonymous 167 5q that Book 3 page 115 would not concern the Lilith/Parson/MK/Charlie arc. It did.
    ~~~~
    POOL CHARLIE: pool on the first unit or city named by Charlie as a claim (whether or not he gets it; 'never asks' is a valid entry). 10q to enter, and you can go in multiple times if you want. If you double up with someone and win, you split the proceeds proportionally.
    I put 10q on Wanda
    Free Radical put 10q on 'never asks'
    But, it was Maggie.
    ~~~~
    deus EX bet bladestorm 50q that by the end of book 3, either: GK will no longer be a side; Parson, or Stanley are not GK units. Parson was briefly not a GK unit.
    ~~~~
    Infidel bet Spruce and me 50q each that Lilith will force one of the guns (in Charlescomm, during the truce) to fire on her own side. Noperoonie.
    ~~~~
    Anonymous 167 bet me 20q that the next Casualty that Charlescomm inflicts on Gobwin Knob will not incur a penalty that is to the benefit of Gobwin Knob. It did.
    ~~~~
    happyturtle's 60q and toma02's 50q to bladestorm's 10q each that Parson became a CharlesComm unit on page 117. He did.
    ~~~~
    wraith203 bet whispri 50q that Parson's turning to CC is the result of a deal which specifies he will turn back to GK after completion of specified actions and/or # of turns. This seems like the kind of thing that would have come up by now, so no.
    ~~~~
    Crisco bet mortissimus 20q that Parson's turn to CC turns out to be non-trivial. That is, it won't be resolved ... in the next few (10, or the end of this particular MK event, whichever comes last) updates with him turning, either to GK or another non-CC/Faq side. It was.
    ~~~~
    Vendanna bet whispri 10q that Parson at lvl 40 will make Lilith betrayed enough to try to slap him, he will grab her hand to stop her from doing so, capturing her and giving GK 5M. (Bet is void if Parson nevers enter lvl 40 at the end of book 3). DIDN"T HAPPEN.
    ~~~~
    happyturtle bet Anonymous 167 20q that Parson is a barbarian by the end of Book 3, rather than Turning back to GK. Nope!
    ~~~~
    Anonymous167 bet Spruce 15q that by the time the Archons finally get inside the Magic Kingdom (book 3, CC archons), Parson and Jack will still be in the exact same positions that they were found in the final frame of Page 122 - with Parson lying down with his hand on his head, and Jack kneeling, looking over him. NOPE
    ~~~~
    Anonymous 167 bet Spruce 20q that Jack will fail to spot the Living Archons once they do enter the Magic Kingdom (first time CC archons enter MK in book 3). YUP
    ~~~~
    Lipkin bet wraith 203 10q that the Archons Charlie sends through the portal will get off the first attack (void if no attacks occur) YUP
    ~~~~
    happyturtle bet Anonymous167 10q that archons invade the Magic Kingdom before the end of book 3. YUP
    ~~~~
    Mirage GSM's 20q to happyturtle's 10q that no turnamancy was involved in Parson turning to CC. YUP
    ~~~~
    Alpha the White bet Mirage GSM 10 quatloos that Maggie intentionally took any backlash from breaking the link with Wanda (into Lilith on the table) NOPE
    ----
    I bet Mrtyuh 5q that Wanda makes Master class before reaching FAQ. YUP
    ~~~~
    0beron (zero) bet Whispri 5q that Wanda will not make Master Class before reaching FAQ. NOPE
    ~~~~
    happyturtle bet wih and Squall83 10q each that Marie will croak before the end of Book 3 (epilogues inclusive). She looks pretty dead in 134.
    ~~~~
    Neceros bet me 10q that Book 3 page 138 will show Parson entering but not exiting a portal. This update concerned Bonnie and Ivan Poe; Parson is not seen.
    ~~~~
    wih's 20q to Mirage GSM's 10q that the Claud Gauntlet refers to an individual (void if not resolved before the end of book 3). The thinkamancers referred to him as a person in Bk3 139
    ~~~~
    Neceros bet whispri 20q that Charlie's portal hack will be repaired soon enough to make a tactical difference (on the turn it was first damaged in book 3). It wasn't.
    ~~~~
    happyturtle bet Nightseraph 10Q that in 134, Marie's corpse is in the process of dusting. (As in, within the next few seconds, there will be nothing left.) It is clearly still present much later.
    ~~~~
    Mirage GSM bet whispri 10 Q that Parson will not escape the engagement (as of Book 3 page 134) through any portal. He did.
    ~~~~
    Lipkin and Mirage GSM bet Sir_Dr_D 20q and 10q respectively that Artemis is dusting on book 3 page 137. She survived.
    ~~~~
    tomaO2 bet NotABot 10q that Artemis is dusting on book 3 page 137. She survived.
    ~~~~
    tomaO2 bet Nightseraph 10q that if Wanda passes through a portal shortly after book 3 page 137, it will be to Jetstone. That didn't happen, so NM!
    ~~~~
    TomaO2's 20q to Crisco's 10q that the grey "golems" that were shown in panel 1 of book 3 page 130 are casters. Voided by mutual agreement.
    ~~~~
    Bladestorm bed Mrtyuh 20q that neither side breaches the terms of contract between GK and CC made in Book 3. It was breached by both sides amply.
    ~~~~
    keighvin1 bet Bladestorm 20q that the coup in Transylvito will begin, OR a major Transylvito character will resolve to dethrone Don, in the next 4 updates of 2016-05-08. No.
    ~~~~
    happyturtle bet wih 10q that bet 10q that TGMTTA will start the fighting at the portal (during the scene where Parson briefly joined CC). They ended it, but did not start it.
    ~~~~
    Neceros bet 10q to wih's 20q that Don called Caesar home to discuss Caesar being replaced as Chief Warlord, or being otherwise demoted, including being sent to some other side as a non-(CW+heir). No evidence for this being the case long after we would have expected to see it.
    ~~~~
    Carl bet Nightseraph 25q that TV's dollamancer's dungeon creation will be a factor in the coup attempt, AND be a reference to the sea swing from the movie 'Toys'. The thing didn't come up.
    ~~~~
    Anonymous167 bet Bibliomancer 10q that Caesar would comply with Don's last orders. Nope.
    ~~~~
    Lipkin bet bladestorm 20q that it will become Parson's goal to make Caesar ruler of Transylvito. Not quite.
    ~~~~
    Lipkin bet bladestorm 10q that Caesar will be ruler of Transylvito by the end of Book 3. Yup.
    ~~~~
    ccc bet bladestorm 10q that of all of Stanley's units currently in Transylvitan custody, Vanna will attempt to turn Parson first. Void - did not come up.
    ~~~~
    ccc bet bladestorm 10q that When Vanna attempts to turn Parson, his first reaction will be to laugh. (Null if Parson escapes Transylvitan custody before Vanna attempts to turn him). Void.
    ~~~~
    Mrtyuh bet kriss1989 10q that Caesar will become Ruler of Transylvito before the end of Book 3. Yuuuup.
    ~~~~
    iwinatlife bet me 50q that Janis planned her death [by being stabbed by Wanda in the jail cell]. She didn't even die, and appears to have specifically planned on not dying then.


    Last edited by drachefly on Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:41 am, edited 27 times in total.
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     Post Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 am 
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    Tathar wrote:
    [*]My first sub-bet! At some point during or after the negotiations for an alliance, one of the two will mention something about improving upon the Titans' work in the context of bringing peace on Erf. 5 quatloos.[/list]

    Against.

    Tathar wrote:
    [*]Another 10 quatloos say the first warlord who makes the previous prediction come to pass will not be from Stupidworld. [/list]

    If you hadn't said this, I might have taken the previous bet because it didn't occur to me...

    Tathar wrote:
    Another standalone, but a two parter. 5 quatloos on Parson having a vision of how peace on Erf should look like, and that vision including Thinkamancers becoming schoolteachers or other instructors. If either part fails, I lose.

    Against.

    Tathar wrote:
    These are all obviously long-term predictions, so I'll use my future credit limit on a time limit.


    That's not how it works. Future quatloos are for things that are unlikely to be judged against you in that time-span. If you want to set a time-limit, that's a way of avoiding using future quatloos.

    Quote:
    Each of these predictions will come to pass by the latter of October 28, 2015 (10 months from now, so it's a valid bet) or by Book 3, Update 200.


    Quote:
    For this, I'm distributing my next 100 quatloos limit between the above predictions for the same amounts.


    Do you mean, IF this hasn't already happened, then you offer the bet applied to a future time? I allow conditional bets, and this seems like a basic condition.

    Quote:
    These will be betting pools too, but double weight would apply to all bets that are made by the end of February of 2015, not just mine, and no new bets will be accepted by end of April. After all, the passage of time without a particular prediction coming to pass would still reduce the odds of it passing by the time limit, regardless of information making it more or less likely to pass at all, so it wouldn't be fair to keep it open too long.


    Thanks for putting an explicit expiration date. There's no need to explain.

    Anyway, I take the

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     Post Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:47 pm 
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    Your post seems to have been cut off. Anyway, my understanding of the future quatloos clause is that they can be used as long as the thing being bet on can't resolve against me until the time limit expires, which would permit me to use them on those bets. I didn't make any predictions for things not happening within a certain time frame for precisely that reason.

    If it makes it easier to understand, those bets are in the form "If prediction X does not happen by date Y, I lose quatloos on date Y."

    _________________
    My predictions post on the betting thread.

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     Post Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:58 am 
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    This should be quickly resolved.

    5Q that Lilith takes the offer (Book 3, Page 45) and turns.

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     Post Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:01 pm 
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    @ Tathar: You are correct on both points. I don't know what I would have put in the cut-off portion.


    Last edited by drachefly on Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2015 5:18 pm 
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    bladestorm wrote:
    This should be quickly resolved.

    5Q that Lilith takes the offer (Book 3, Page 45) and turns.


    I'll take that.

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     Post Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:38 am 
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    When does she need to turn by?

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     Post Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:03 am 
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    25q say that GK high command are actively monitoring situation via Lilith.
    That is, either Parson or Wanda alone are shown watching the situation, possibly instructing Lilith to offer her turning.

    If that turns out true, further 25q say that Lilith will turn to Jetstone and use her knowledge of Parson and GK to try to get him to consider at least a truce, possibly an alliance.
    I lose if she
    a) doesn't turn and is delivered to Charlie
    b) does turn, but does not or can not try to get Tramennis to consider this option.

    If it is not shown that GK high command are not monitoring and/or influencing the situation, the second part is void.

    Bet is open until either the conditions are met, it is shown that the conditions weren't met (i.e. showing GK high command being surprised by archons turning to Jetstone), or if neither happens, for next 4 months.

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     Post Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:10 pm 
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    Fabo wrote:
    25q say that GK high command are actively monitoring situation via Lilith.
    That is, either Parson or Wanda alone are shown watching the situation, possibly instructing Lilith to offer her turning.

    If that turns out true, further 25q say that Lilith will turn to Jetstone and use her knowledge of Parson and GK to try to get him to consider at least a truce, possibly an alliance.
    I lose if she
    a) doesn't turn and is delivered to Charlie
    b) does turn, but does not or can not try to get Tramennis to consider this option.

    If it is not shown that GK high command are not monitoring and/or influencing the situation, the second part is void.

    Bet is open until either the conditions are met, it is shown that the conditions weren't met (i.e. showing GK high command being surprised by archons turning to Jetstone), or if neither happens, for next 4 months.

    I will take the first part. This sounds almost directly like Charlescomm training. Don't settle for a win when you can get paid to turn it into a win/win/win.

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     Post Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:23 pm 
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    bladestorm wrote:
    I will take the first part. This sounds almost directly like Charlescomm training. Don't settle for a win when you can get paid to turn it into a win/win/win.


    Allright, I think it's just been conclusively proven that Wanda was watching. Although TBH, I am a bit surprised by the lack of Parsons presence.

    Anyone up for the second part of the bet?

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     Post Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:28 am 
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    You mean this?

    Fabo wrote:
    If that turns out true, further 25q say that Lilith will turn to Jetstone and use her knowledge of Parson and GK to try to get him to consider at least a truce, possibly an alliance.
    I lose if she
    a) doesn't turn and is delivered to Charlie
    b) does turn, but does not or can not try to get Tramennis to consider this option.

    Well I'll take it I guess, since you've made it clear you're still offering it.

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     Post Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:46 am 
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    Whispri wrote:
    You mean this?

    Fabo wrote:
    If that turns out true, further 25q say that Lilith will turn to Jetstone and use her knowledge of Parson and GK to try to get him to consider at least a truce, possibly an alliance.
    I lose if she
    a) doesn't turn and is delivered to Charlie
    b) does turn, but does not or can not try to get Tramennis to consider this option.

    Well I'll take it I guess, since you've made it clear you're still offering it.


    Pretty sure you can't take a bet that's already resolved.

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     Post Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 5:13 am 
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    Fabo's still offering the second part of the prior bet and that appears to be the second part. Deals can fall through, so he could still win.

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     Post Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:58 am 
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    Location: The Early Racoon Camp
    Current credit: 212q
    Current balance: -50q

    Open bets:

    I bet 20q that Charlie will be croaked by poison before the end of Book 5.

    Withdrawn bets:
    I bet 10q that Ansom will not be turned while Faq's prisoner.
    Ansom was repatriated by Gobwin Knob, so this bet is withdrawn.

    For some fun, I’ll bet 5q that Barry survived the fall. Bet void if Rob hasn’t acknowledged the joke by the end of Book 3. (Sometimes you just need to do something silly.)
    Pretty much everyone in the garrison perished in the inferno so we’d be unlikely to find out, and it was a tongue-in-cheek bet anyway, so time to let it drop.

    GWvsJohn wrote:
    For Lilwik, Godz and Myrt who took this bet, I'm inclined to leave it open until Chapter 2 of Digdoug starts. If it looks like we will get the answers to what really happened in Chapter 2, then we can wait and see. If Chapter 2 seems to have totally moved on from the fall of Delkey, I'll say it was a loss for me.

    I said I was fine with keeping DigDoug bets open, but I vanished again and never specifically responded, so your terms are acceptable, and I'd like to keep it open. I really need to stop vanishing for ten months at a time. Sorry for taking so long to respond.

    I’ll accept the following bet:

    bladestorm wrote:
    20Q even odds that neither side breaches the terms of contract.


    New bets:

    I bet 20q that King Posbrake was not croaked but captured. Furthermore, he will be released/escape and become King again (although it may not be his old side). I lose if either condition is false.

    I bet a further 10q that, if the above is true, he will get his ring back. If he croaked during the battle, this bet is void. If he survived but does not become a king again, I lose.

    Also, as a bit of a tinfoil hat bet, I bet 10q that Wanda will decrypt the jester. Jillian may or may not be alive at the time.

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    Last edited by Mrtyuh on Sat Mar 14, 2015 7:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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