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 Post subject: Digdoug - Episode 7
 Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:36 am 
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New One is up.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:55 am 
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    Ohhh! I love predictamancy stories.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:56 am 
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    Mannnnnn, i'm really bad at Predictamancy. This story just keeps avoiding my expectations like a ninja

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:00 am 
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    So Homekey is going to be attacked and the likely possibilities are:
    -Delkey (they're unhappy but are they that unhappy?)-
    -Charlie's hired Archons (by Numloch?)
    -Jillian perhaps hired by the same
    -or perhaps a surprise attack by Paige Downs.
    We can probably rule out Paige Downs as they likely cannot afford the penalty associated with breaking the treaty, let alone an attack. Numloch look like good candidates despite their lack of air power they could hire some. After all if Homekey is doing so well they may well be so desperate they might be willing to pay the cost of hiring Charlie for a hopefully quick end to the war. Delkey might be complicit in the attack by letting it happen but I'm not sure they'd actually actively participate. Place your bets!
    --
    P.S. There is of course the possibility that by hiring the Predictamancer they angered Delkey so much that they triggered the attack predicted but that's a bit tropy for my liking.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:50 am 
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    This guy seems like a match for Parson, with all the unconventional thinking.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:00 pm 
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    I like how he used predictamancy in ways that don't trigger its worst effects. Ask about things that you actually need to know, where any answer is useful.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:12 pm 
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    Huh. I'm honestly interested to see how this guy would match up against Hamster.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:17 pm 
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    Interesting info on how Predictamancy is viewed with superstition. I suppose this is due to the constant attempt to defy any negative predictions ala early Wanda. When a side gets a bad prediction they go about trying to circumvent it thus either ensuring the prediction will come true or making it worse. I imagine the perception is that things would have been better if no prediction had been made. They prefer the illusion of free will rather than accepting that there are some things they are powerless to avoid.

    In this instance, I wonder if merely hiring the Predictamancer may have set the imminent attack in motion. By hiring the Predictamancer, Posbrake had to hide that expense from Delkey. That resulted in the current visit from Creen. That forces Posbrake to deny them access. That results in tipping Delkey into a hostile stance which somehow causes a major air attack. Posbrake does seem bent on preserving DigDoug so there may be another prediction that he is concealing. It could also be that DigDoug is going into the Magic Kingdom with a mission, Posbrake is trying to gently force another prediction to somehow swing in their favor (e.g. Digdoug will meet a caster who will save the side), or he is truly just trying to keep DigDoug out of the coming hostilities.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:27 pm 
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    Well, it's not being kept a secret from Chief Bucky that he hired a Predictamancer from the magic kingdom. That seems like weak evidence that she might in fact be Chief Signamancer and the one who advised King Posbrake about hiring the Predictamancer in the first place.


    King Posbrake continues to be impressive. With DigDoug's improvements to the tower's air defence, I wonder if he intends to hire a Shockmancer (or more than one) to spell up the tower?

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:34 pm 
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    Predictamancers in the Magic Kingdom are there because their side fell, they are considered bad luck because they "saw it coming" and failed to correctly inform their sides how to stop it. Honestly if Predictamancers are cheap, why hasn't some side monopolized ALL the barbarian Predictamancers and put them to work on polishing predictions? I would think that even though fate "locks in" a certain scenario, you can force details out of it via getting the same prediction from multiple sources...

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:47 pm 
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    fjolnir wrote:
    Predictamancers in the Magic Kingdom are there because their side fell, they are considered bad luck because they "saw it coming" and failed to correctly inform their sides how to stop it. Honestly if Predictamancers are cheap, why hasn't some side monopolized ALL the barbarian Predictamancers and put them to work on polishing predictions? I would think that even though fate "locks in" a certain scenario, you can force details out of it via getting the same prediction from multiple sources...


    I think the main problem is that cannot change hard predictions. They WILL happen no matter how much you kick and scream. Predictamancers may see it coming but are also powerless to stop it so they try and figure out ways for their side to weather the prediction with a minimal loss to their side - much like Delphie Temple's attempt to get Wanda over to Haffaton as much as possible. Apparently GoodMinton could have survived a little longer if they had just given up Wanda outright.

    I assume most Predictamancers try to take back control of their fates by croaking with their side instead of fleeing to the Magic Kingdom and living in undeserved shame.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:09 pm 
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    joosy wrote:
    In this instance, I wonder if merely hiring the Predictamancer may have set the imminent attack in motion.


    Goes for the Weatherbug attack as well. Posbreak didn't just know that an massive attack was coming, but that it would wipe out nearly all units. So his response was to remove a high-value unit that could conceivably have changed the results of the battle. Posbreak thinks he knows what would have happened if Digdoug had stayed, but the fact that he thinks he does is specifically why he doesn't.

    It seems that using Predictamancers is tricky. You have to ask the right questions, and avoid learning too much like the plague. So by all means, ask about what sorts of attacks are coming, but never ever ask about their outcome, because once you do you're locked into the answer. Parson would have a field day with one. He'd do all sorts of small experiments, learning the limits of self-fulfilling prophecies and ontological paradoxes.

    If Predictamancers are so cheap, why are they suddenly having to cook the books to such an extent to cover for a short-term hiring of one? Just hire a Dollamancer for a new royal outfit, and inflate the cost by whatever the Predictamancer cost.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:33 pm 
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    I feel obligated to note the presence of more food crops in this chapter. Even the King's office has them. The only place that came close to that was Haffaton.

    On predictamancy: We don't actually know if it can generate self-fulfilling prophecies. Perhaps had Digdoug remained behind Fate would have just tipped the scales a little more. This isn't (just) looking into the future. This is looking at the notes of a railroading GM.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:37 pm 
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    joosy wrote:
    Interesting info on how Predictamancy is viewed with superstition. I suppose this is due to the constant attempt to defy any negative predictions ala early Wanda. When a side gets a bad prediction they go about trying to circumvent it thus either ensuring the prediction will come true or making it worse. I imagine the perception is that things would have been better if no prediction had been made. They prefer the illusion of free will rather than accepting that there are some things they are powerless to avoid.


    You can still have free will and fated events side by side - you can still make choices, and they will have effects. But no number of effects to the contrary (and that assumes that your actions' effects are to the contrary) may be able to stop certain events from occurring. In the case of Erfworld, it seems that you can choose a path to certain events, and that Predictamancers tend to advise for the "easier" path (the one that costs the side the least) - but you are under no obligation to take that easier path. The difficulty with knowing your fate is that any action you might take to avoid it may end up precipitating it (a "Death in Damascus" scenario).

    DyolfKnip wrote:
    Goes for the Weatherbug attack as well. Posbreak didn't just know that an massive attack was coming, but that it would wipe out nearly all units. So his response was to remove a high-value unit that could conceivably have changed the results of the battle. Posbreak thinks he knows what would have happened if Digdoug had stayed, but the fact that he thinks he does is specifically why he doesn't.


    The Prediction said all living units would be wiped out - so, while they might have won the battle and wiped out Numloch's forces (rather than just scraping by), Digdoug would still have fallen, and only golems would be left in the city. Stop fighting the predictions! They are describing events that will happen (in the same way that mathamancer's dice describe battles and such) - hiring a Predictamancer does not set you on the path to a certain Fate, you were on that path from the very day you popped. Posbrake is making good use of Predictamancy in that he used what he was told to help keep the losses to his side small - he's accepted what the Predictions say, and used the information to take the path that benefits his side the best.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:34 pm 
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    Jacinth and Rubies wrote:
    Stop fighting the predictions! They are describing events that will happen (in the same way that mathamancer's dice describe battles and such) - hiring a Predictamancer does not set you on the path to a certain Fate, you were on that path from the very day you popped. Posbrake is making good use of Predictamancy in that he used what he was told to help keep the losses to his side small - he's accepted what the Predictions say, and used the information to take the path that benefits his side the best.

    I don't think this has been made clear yet. It could be that Predictamancy works like a measurement in classical physics. That is, as you say, it merely describes the state of the world as it always was and always will be. However, Predictamancy could also be like a measurement in quantum physics. In this case, the thing being described is in a combination of all possible states and the process of performing the measurement forces it into a specific state. In this case, people who value free will should avoid Predictamancers.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:53 pm 
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    So apparently Parson is not the only one to decide that nighttime is a vital time for strategy. This is the only other time we have heard of somebody taking strategic actions off-turn (excluding Charlie who, as far as I am concerned, is taking strategic actions at every moment via Thinkagrams, Archons, etc.).

    Also, I would like to make a note that apparently Dirtomancy does NOT have an effect on all things related to the the Erf. He could not change the coffee, despite the fact that he knows it contains plant material and acids, both of which we have seen evidence that Sizemore can mess with (Beams from plant material, and though we have not seen Acid Golems that I remember, GK had two when Parson was given information on his troops). To me that says that just because it comes from the Erf does not mean it can be manipulated by a Dirtomancer. Apparently rations cannot. Although Digdoug does note that a Changemancer may be able to be more specific about what was really in the cup and possibly change it.

    I have no idea what if any significance that has, but I have noticed that the properties of Dirtomancy have been discussed a whole lot lately, and I thought I would point out the new piece of evidence. Maybe it has something to do with the complexity of the drink. Perhaps he just cannot do it because he cannot sort out all of the components. It seems to me that Dirtomancers can only work on something that is mostly static (even the storm qualifies since it was a largely unchanging characteristic of the hex). Put another way, lets say that a Florist had a bunch of herbs and roots gathered. Before they were mixed, it may be possible for a Dirtomancer to turn those into something since they are materials from the Erf. However, once the ingredients are ground up and made into a poultice or a tea or something, the Dirtomancer cannot do anything because they cannot detect the individual components.

    Purely spitballing, but that was my thought.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:58 pm 
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    This has me wondering something. How does a Ruler hire someone out of the Magic Kingdom? I had always figured they sent a Caster in to find someone of the proper discipline, but all evidence so far has suggested Digdoug is their only Caster. He certainly wouldn't have asked a Delkey Caster for assistance, so unless Bucky or someone else is secretly a Caster who has been wasting (or very covertly using) their Juice, how would he hire someone?

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:08 pm 
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    Zain wrote:
    This has me wondering something. How does a Ruler hire someone out of the Magic Kingdom? I had always figured they sent a Caster in to find someone of the proper discipline, but all evidence so far has suggested Digdoug is their only Caster. He certainly wouldn't have asked a Delkey Caster for assistance, so unless Bucky or someone else is secretly a Caster who has been wasting (or very covertly using) their Juice, how would he hire someone?


    Thinkamancy. If I were a Thinkamancer in the MK, whether or not I was a GMTTA, I'd occasionally spend some time in Portal Park listening for Rulers without casters who want to hire one. If a new portal appeared, I might even send a Thinkagram to the ruler of the new side to inform them that they could contact me for a very small fee and I'd put them in touch with any discipline of Caster in the MK that they might ask.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:36 pm 
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    Zain wrote:
    This has me wondering something. How does a Ruler hire someone out of the Magic Kingdom? I had always figured they sent a Caster in to find someone of the proper discipline, but all evidence so far has suggested Digdoug is their only Caster. He certainly wouldn't have asked a Delkey Caster for assistance, so unless Bucky or someone else is secretly a Caster who has been wasting (or very covertly using) their Juice, how would he hire someone?


    Maybe Posbrake just stood by the portal and waited - any good Predictamancer would know where to be and when :)

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:45 pm 
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    Althernai wrote:
    I don't think this has been made clear yet. It could be that Predictamancy works like a measurement in classical physics. That is, as you say, it merely describes the state of the world as it always was and always will be. However, Predictamancy could also be like a measurement in quantum physics. In this case, the thing being described is in a combination of all possible states and the process of performing the measurement forces it into a specific state. In this case, people who value free will should avoid Predictamancers.


    True - people who value free will above all other things should avoid Predictamancy - if it does indeed work like quantum physics (which I am not inclined to believe - see below). However, Posbrake values his kingdom and his Dirtamancer even more than he does his free will. Why is free will so precious if you can save your life and the life of others you care for at its expense?

    Notably, there are times when Predictions can't be made (if Marie's talk about "cloudiness" is to be believed); because of this I don't think either measurement analogy works for Erfworld time/predictions, because in both the deterministic and quantum analogies, you can always make a measurement.

    Zain wrote:
    This has me wondering something. How does a Ruler hire someone out of the Magic Kingdom? I had always figured they sent a Caster in to find someone of the proper discipline, but all evidence so far has suggested Digdoug is their only Caster. He certainly wouldn't have asked a Delkey Caster for assistance, so unless Bucky or someone else is secretly a Caster who has been wasting (or very covertly using) their Juice, how would he hire someone?


    Think hard about contacting a Thinkamancer in the MK? Hat Magic? Some sort of Portal Signamancy (this last one might be the most convenient)? perhaps a thinkamancer/signamancer alloy magic on the portals would be useful for notifying Casters of prospective work.

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