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 Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
 Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:06 am 
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So, all the talk about Luckamancy repayments and Predictamancers having a reputation as bad luck got me thinking. Some... facts of how magic works got me wondering about... things.
Facts are as follows:
Luckamancy cannot create high or low rolls, only transfer them.
Good or bad luck results in the opposite at some other time or location.
When fate anomalies cause probability anomalies, those changes create corresponding changes in probability elsewhere.
Predictamancers can see fate anomalies.
Predictamancers can see if you’re going to try to fight fate.
Fighting fate creates bad luck.
Creating bad luck creates good luck for someone else.
Predictamancy can call shots, seeing outcomes of probability events and then choosing to cause that outcome so the dice come out in their favor.
Predictamancers have a reputation of causing everyone except themselves bad luck.

What are your thoughts on this set of facts?

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:29 am 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    It looks like Janis's claim that he is a Hippiemancer came from the Predictamancers.


    Which is why he'd need Carnymancy to prevent accurate knowledge. ;-)

    Honestly, I'm inclined to believe Janis's claim is more a statement based on the belief that he exists to progress the goal of peace, which is the same goal as hippiemancers progress. I'm not convinced Janis was speaking from a position of knowledge. Honestly, none of the actual Hippiemancy specialties seem to match Parson much to me...

    Maybe I'm just too used to media that is actively trying to trick me with characters that say things that are either lies or statements made without complete info available...And there do seem to be a lot of characters in Erfworld that neither know much about any discipline but their own nor have any interest in learning about them. A lot of leaders that waste their casters for lack of knowledge about what they can do and casters that waste themselves sitting at home doing nothing but piling spells uselessly with no idea why they're useful. Even Digdoug didn't seem to know why he was doing upgrades on cities until the warlord in Weatherbug explained the strategic value to him.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:03 am 
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    Godzfirefly wrote:
    Honestly, I'm inclined to believe Janis's claim is more a statement based on the belief that he exists to progress the goal of peace, which is the same goal as hippiemancers progress. I'm not convinced Janis was speaking from a position of knowledge.
    Of all people, I would trust Janis to get that right. Not only is she recognizing a caster of her own class, but being a Hippiemancer really ought to put her in a good position to evaluate people. Don't forget that Signamancy is a kind of Hippiemancy. Date-a-mancy is also Hippiemancy. I don't think Date-a-mancy would be directly useful in this case, but it's an example of Hippiemancy being used to learn about people.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:04 am 
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    Godzfirefly wrote:
    ManaCaster wrote:
    It looks like Janis's claim that he is a Hippiemancer came from the Predictamancers.

    Which is why he'd need Carnymancy to prevent accurate knowledge. ;-)

    Since that happened before he was even summoned, it would probably require a linkup with Retconjuration too.

    Godzfirefly wrote:
    Honestly, I'm inclined to believe Janis's claim is more a statement based on the belief that he exists to progress the goal of peace, which is the same goal as hippiemancers progress. I'm not convinced Janis was speaking from a position of knowledge.

    If she isn't speaking from knowledge, then there isn't much point to her saying he isn't a Mathamancer. Also, she was trying to reassure the casters about his non-caster presence in the MK. Aside from fellow Hippiemancers, saying he is a Hippiemancer in spirit isn't going to reassure anyone.

    Godzfirefly wrote:
    Honestly, none of the actual Hippiemancy specialties seem to match Parson much to me...

    Flower Power and Date-a-Mancy definitely not. But what about Signamancy? A bunch of the speculation on him being a Signamancer is written here, if you like: http://www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/ ... ignamancer

    Given the basic power of Signamancy, that would provide an alternate explanation for being able to interpret the scroll. Also, one of the functions of Signamancers is as lawyers. Think of Parson as a rules lawyer! Which is actually is pretty similar to Carnymancy, yes, albeit with different preferences as to how to work around the rules. It would make him a fitting counterpart to Charlie.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:11 am 
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    Unrelated to the current discussion. For anyone who was wondering which Tarot cards they drew were.

    Digdoug’s Cards:
    Eight of Swords
    Seven of Coins
    Eight of Wands
    Posbrake’s Cards:
    Five of Coins
    Six of Cups
    King of Cups
    Bucky’s Cards:
    Ace of Swords
    Queen of Wands
    Jack of Cups
    Dove’s Cards:
    Ten of Coins
    Four of Swords
    Queen of Coins

    Note this is Wikipedia, and therefore almost certainly a load of bullshit instead of real tarot. Also they don’t seem to actually have anything to do with the story in most cases.

    And last but not least, a song. A song sung by Feyd-Rautha Harkonnen, in a thread about predictions being a trap no less.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:37 am 
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    Yeah, considering that Signamancy is the magic of meaningful appearances, and literally everything in Erf is a reference to Stupid World that only Parson understands, he's seeing the world with Signamancy senses. A lot of his activities and natural predilections mesh with him being a Signamancer.

    I expect we'll get confirmation on his casting ability in book 3. That may be what I'm looking forward to the most. It might be confirmed by linking with Maggie, which is sure to set all the shippers atizzy.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:06 pm 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    BarGamer wrote:
    Parson does seem like a Carnymancer to me.

    That would certainly explain why he could understand the Carnymancy scroll, a feat Sizemore and possibly even Isaac couldn't achieve. On the other hand, this conflicts with Janis's claim that he is a Hippiemancer. The other leading theory is that he is a Signamancer, which might have some similar talents.
    I think a signamancer would probably be pretty good at understanding scrolls. If that's not a form of signamancy I don't know what is. A carnymancer would fit with his breaking of the booping rule that makes terrans say boop.


    ManaCaster wrote:
    Lamech wrote:
    Right. It might fulfill the prediction, but Fate also might have details that the predictamancer wasn't able to gleam. Plus Fate doesn't seem to be highly overt when it can help it. (Indeed the only time we see is with Red and her hacked Fate to die in a fire.) I doubt its going to randomly compel a bunch units to attack the city who have no other reason to. Plus it plans way ahead. The gears leading to this attack have been in the works for a long time. The Fate guided missile is already on its way. Taking away Fate's guidance now probably won't do much.

    Don't forget that Digdoug running right into what he needed is quite a suspicious coincidence. Maybe Fate was already planning to default to "attack yourselves on the advice of a Carnymancer", and it would only make some enemy side attack if they failed to do so.
    That would be interesting. Maybe Fate likes to take the easy way too!

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:18 pm 
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    When you consider his titanic upkeep costs, and basic warlord stats, it's likely that Parson, (and possibly Charlie, if he's from 'Stupidworld' as well), is a special unit type. He may be subject to the rules of Erfworld, but he's not 'of' Erfworld. He wasn't popped, he was explicitly summoned. Physically, we know he's a warlord-type. He doesn't have juice, at least, that he knows of, and he fights and has leadership like a warlord. But of course, he can also strangely use scrolls and enter the Magic Kingdom at will.

    I'd say it's a folly to try to define him with a conventional label like 'caster' or 'warlord', let alone specific labels like 'carnymancer' or 'hippiemancer'.


    Last edited by victor227 on Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:20 pm 
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    Maybe he's a Haxorcerer.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:42 pm 
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    asparagus wrote:
    I am struggling to see how manipulating the value of cards in that game would help you win. Posbrake's rule would not have helped him win with the 5 and 6. Rather his just did not mess up his king.

    I would have thought more playable rules would be things "Everyone now passes one card of their choice to the player on their left." Since it does not actually apply to any trick it cannot be invalidated?

    That would prevent the rule-maker from winning a trick with the card they were passed. Basically you're correct and Bucky's rule was in fact the best possible. As there is no way to make a rule that helps you win, all you can do is make sure your rule can't cause you to lose a trick you otherwise would have won. (Posbrake's rule was also fine since he had no black cards, though it could have backfired if Bucky had, say, reversed all card colors.)

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:12 pm 
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    Toper wrote:
    Bucky's rule was in fact the best possible.


    Ermm... I'm not sure you actually read the episode all the way through. Bucky's rule got no tricks,

    Bucky was greedy - got nothing.
    Digdoug picked up a trick from his weakest card.
    Posbrake eliminated the value of opposing cards but only got one trick which he might have got anyway.
    Dove picked up a freebie (knowing that you can often do that).

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:54 pm 
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    Toper wrote:
    asparagus wrote:
    I am struggling to see how manipulating the value of cards in that game would help you win. Posbrake's rule would not have helped him win with the 5 and 6. Rather his just did not mess up his king.

    I would have thought more playable rules would be things "Everyone now passes one card of their choice to the player on their left." Since it does not actually apply to any trick it cannot be invalidated?

    That would prevent the rule-maker from winning a trick with the card they were passed. Basically you're correct and Bucky's rule was in fact the best possible. As there is no way to make a rule that helps you win, all you can do is make sure your rule can't cause you to lose a trick you otherwise would have won. (Posbrake's rule was also fine since he had no black cards, though it could have backfired if Bucky had, say, reversed all card colors.)

    Not actually true! You can work around that rule. With the unlimited rule making nature of the game you could propose rules like "If I don't win the trick everyone besides me loses three points." I assume carnymancers have more "secret rules" to prevent that kind of thing.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:57 pm 
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    asparagus wrote:
    I'm not sure you actually read the episode all the way through. Bucky's rule got no tricks.
    That was just bad luck. In a way, the best rule is whatever rule would sabotage whoever would win without your rule, and Posbrake's rule excellently sabotaged Bucky, but since there's no way to know the cards of the other players, it makes no sense to attempt to make a rule like that. Bucky's rule is the best in practice, even if she didn't happen to win in this example. The only other way I can imagine to make a rule that helps yourself (short of making a rule that declares yourself the winner of the game) would be to make a rule so complicated that it confuses the other players into playing foolishly.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:17 pm 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    Godzfirefly wrote:
    Honestly, none of the actual Hippiemancy specialties seem to match Parson much to me...

    Flower Power and Date-a-Mancy definitely not. But what about Signamancy? A bunch of the speculation on him being a Signamancer is written here, if you like: http://www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/ ... ignamancer

    Given the basic power of Signamancy, that would provide an alternate explanation for being able to interpret the scroll. Also, one of the functions of Signamancers is as lawyers. Think of Parson as a rules lawyer! Which is actually is pretty similar to Carnymancy, yes, albeit with different preferences as to how to work around the rules. It would make him a fitting counterpart to Charlie.

    I would like to point out my arguments for why Date-a-mancy makes PERFECT sense (Why Date-a-mancy? An explanation/tract) and add a reminder that I have an open bet in the Amateur Predictamancy Thread
    as well (putting my money where my mouth is).

    TL;DR - my interpretation is that Date-a-mancy is focused on understanding how things work through interaction. People on dates (Uhura), units in fights (Laurel of Napster) or Rules colliding (Parson's Foodfight tactic). Parson may not be very good at the person to person level, but he always was a big picture thinker.

    Also, we've seen casters use scrolls outside their disciplines before (Gobwin Knob's healing scrolls, the "Summon Perfect Warlord" spell, Wanda improving the tower with a Dirtamancy scroll in IPTSF 20).

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:24 pm 
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    Lilwik wrote:
    asparagus wrote:
    I'm not sure you actually read the episode all the way through. Bucky's rule got no tricks.
    That was just bad luck. In a way, the best rule is whatever rule would sabotage whoever would win without your rule, and Posbrake's rule excellently sabotaged Bucky, but since there's no way to know the cards of the other players, it makes no sense to attempt to make a rule like that. Bucky's rule is the best in practice, even if she didn't happen to win in this example. The only other way I can imagine to make a rule that helps yourself (short of making a rule that declares yourself the winner of the game) would be to make a rule so complicated that it confuses the other players into playing foolishly.


    You have not read the episode either. Bucky's rule can never win Bucky a trick because it will always be struck-down by the meta-rule that you cannot win a trick from your own rule. Bucky could in theory still win tricks but only on the value of her cards (as modified by other peoples' rules).

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 pm 
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    asparagus wrote:
    Put it another way can anyone think of good tactics to win at this game or is it essentially a drinking game?

    I'd be tempted to give myself a discretionary power to do something like re-distribute everyone's cards at any time in any way I choose, which I would use to ensure that no one else can win a plurality of tricks and/or to entice other players into offering me schmuckers/favors in order to win tricks. If I used it to prevent others from benefiting from good luck, then I'd only need average luck to win. But honestly I'd probably shy away from the social consequences of such a rule.

    As asparagus alluded to, rotating the shill role, using more subtle rules that "accidentally" backfire, is a more sustainable way to come out ahead. If you can keep the arrangement secret, you have the twin benefits of escaping judgment for being a killjoy powergaming munchkin and of keeping marks hooked into a game that seems like it can be won by cleverness or luck.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:12 pm 
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    Lilwik wrote:
    asparagus wrote:
    I'm not sure you actually read the episode all the way through. Bucky's rule got no tricks.
    That was just bad luck. In a way, the best rule is whatever rule would sabotage whoever would win without your rule, and Posbrake's rule excellently sabotaged Bucky, but since there's no way to know the cards of the other players, it makes no sense to attempt to make a rule like that. Bucky's rule is the best in practice, even if she didn't happen to win in this example. The only other way I can imagine to make a rule that helps yourself (short of making a rule that declares yourself the winner of the game) would be to make a rule so complicated that it confuses the other players into playing foolishly.


    Well, confusion can work, and it seems to be one of Dove's takeaways. I sort of see her point.

    I actually think the "best" rule (short of altering win conditions for the game directly, of course) would be to prevent any 1 opponent from pulling ahead the in total tricks won. Something to the effect of: "On tricks which I do not win, the winner will be the player other than myself who has won the fewest tricks so far." That would keep your opponents roughly equal, won't run afoul of the secret rule, and won't stop you from winning normally. But even that rule is ultimately of limited use, since the other players can simply adopt their own version of it, and then who knows what would happen.

    At any rate, this was a great update. Fascinating stuff. :-)

    -H

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:16 pm 
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    Shai_hulud wrote:
    So, all the talk about Luckamancy repayments and Predictamancers having a reputation as bad luck got me thinking. Some... facts of how magic works got me wondering about... things.
    Facts are as follows:
    Luckamancy cannot create high or low rolls, only transfer them.
    Good or bad luck results in the opposite at some other time or location.
    When fate anomalies cause probability anomalies, those changes create corresponding changes in probability elsewhere.
    Predictamancers can see fate anomalies.


    I agree with those facts up until this point

    Quote:
    Predictamancers can see if you’re going to try to fight fate.


    But not this one. Predictamancers know *what* will happen, but not necessarily how. They don't necessarily know whether you'll try and fight fate or not. When Marie told Jillian that there was going to be an ambush, she doesn't know whether Jillian will stay on her regular route (and get ambushed) or switch routes (and get ambushed). She just knows an ambush is coming.

    Quote:
    Fighting fate creates bad luck.
    Creating bad luck creates good luck for someone else.
    Predictamancy can call shots, seeing outcomes of probability events and then choosing to cause that outcome so the dice come out in their favor.


    I'm not sure about this last one either. I don't know that predictamancers choose to cause the outcomes that they predict. They see the future, but don't choose what future to see.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:00 am 
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    I believe what Dove is trying to do is to work with the Prediction rather than against it. She can't get around the fact that the capital will come under an air attack but she can and get them to meet the conditions of the Prediction under their own terms. For example, when Jillian got the Prediction that she was going to be ambushed she tried to circumvent it by changing her route - and got ambushed anyway. A more practical approach would be for her to minimize her losses - sending ahead an expendable unit to be ambushed first, preparing her formation to best defend against an ambush, or even ambushing herself if that was possible. Its like what Xanatos did twice in Gargoyles: Each time he was faced with a spell that could only be broken under seeming impossible conditions, he went about making them come true (raising the castle above the clouds, setting the sky on fire).

    Carnymancy may allow them to break the rule of not being able to attack your own units but that is a boring solution. :)

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 9
     Post Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:37 am 
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    I'm surprised that people are discussing the actual game so much. It looked to me to be a fairly clear way of just trying to give an idea what Carnymancers do.

    Hell I don't even think that they played the game according to the rules. Digdug's black 8s had no value, but they were also the highest card if that didn't win him the trick, meaning that the two tricks that he played them he should have tied, since that would follow the rule which, as a rule, should be followed unless superseded by another rule (that of it causing him to win). So 8 would be the highest card, but couldn't exceed the value of the other highest card in the hand. In fact, it should have been either a 2 way tie or a 3 or 4 way tie, since the two black cards both had 0 value and would thus tie, and the two red cards would thus have to have a value of 0 or below. The game seems to be a logical puzzle as you add rules, which is kind of weird if the casters are supposed to be carnies.

    So, yeah. That game would be a mess to play, and would be easy to break and make inconclusive rounds like this.

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