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 Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
 Post Posted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:49 pm 
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Zain wrote:
This has me wondering something. How does a Ruler hire someone out of the Magic Kingdom? I had always figured they sent a Caster in to find someone of the proper discipline, but all evidence so far has suggested Digdoug is their only Caster. He certainly wouldn't have asked a Delkey Caster for assistance, so unless Bucky or someone else is secretly a Caster who has been wasting (or very covertly using) their Juice, how would he hire someone?


I almost never comment on Reactions, but I just wanted to say how much I love it when people ask questions that I'm about to answer in the story. It means we're right on track. :D

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:20 am 
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    Lamech wrote:
    That's not how predictions have been shown to generally work. In general predictions are ironclad, but only in what they say. Had Digdoug remained Fate would have offed him anyway. All roads lead to the same end. That's how predictamancy has been shown to work. Fate forces the outcome, but you chose the path.


    Or he could have lost the ability to speak.

    Too bad there wasn't a high level weirdomancer around or something to make the hex unspeakable or something for a turn then bug out. Stay within the prediction and try to change things as much as possible. Instead of necessary croakings of everyone perhaps the inability to communicate will hurt the attackers enough to change the tide.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:35 am 
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    Lilwik wrote:
    I recognize that as a possibility, but I can't believe it. We know so little about Charlie, but his most clear qualities are cleverness and being manipulative. Plus, he's a caster in a Fate axis discipline, which ought to give him a head start on understanding Predictamancy. That's no guarantee, judging from Wanda, but I still can't believe that Charlie would be as foolish as Wanda and fight directly against Fate. The fact that Charlie tried to get rid of Parson should be considered strong evidence that Charlie doesn't know that Parson is Predicted to defeat Charlie. We don't know what has been Predicted about Parson. Maybe he's only Predicted to be skillful enough to defeat Charlie. Maybe Charlie isn't going after Parson because of any particular Prediction, but instead because Charlie's own cleverness tells him that Parson is a threat.

    If a Predictamancer had clearly Predicted that Parson would defeat Charlie and Charlie knew about that Prediction, then it would be truly bizarre if Charlie chose to attack Parson. We can see that course of action would just accelerate the confrontation, so surely Charlie could see it too. Instead, I expect that Charlie would try to make friends with Parson at any cost. That should convince Parson to make Charlie a low-priority target. All it does it buy Charlie time, but that's the best that Charlie could hope for, and Charlie would know that.

    He might have considered it a necessary risk. Yes, acting allows the confrontation to happen sooner, but if Parson is Fated to defeat Charlie, then its going to try to happen sooner or later regardless of what Charlie does. Jojo claimed that Carnymancy has the power to resist Fate and that his scroll would do exactly that. If he was being truthful, then that would be enough to explain Charlie's actions.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:48 am 
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    The question remains whether Predictions are all self-fulfilling prophecies (e.g. Weatherbug fell BECAUSE King Posbrake was given the prediction and pulled DigDoug out of the city) or whether they will happen one way or the other no matter whether you fight the prediction or actively play into it (e.g. if DigDoug had stayed in the city the prophecy would still have come true, and included his death; and if Posbrake had pulled all his warlords out with DigDoug, it would still have come true but also included the city falling) or whether it is the act of Prediction that locks in the event (e.g. that specific outcome, of no speaking units left alive, was only locked in once an official Prediction was made but once it was made it is locked in).

    We may never get an answer.

    For now it's enough to know that once something is Predicted, it WILL happen. Eventually. Quite possibly not in the way anyone expects. But the words will be true.

    It's only worth paying for the prediction if the second option is true and that the Prediction WILL come to pass one way or another but you can affect how it comes to pass and try and take advantage of that.

    As for who's going to attack, it wouldn't shock me if it is Jillian or Charlie as hired by one of Posbrake's many enemies including Delkey.

    It also won't shock me if:

    a) the Predictamancer was Marie; and
    b) Digdoug meets Sizemore in the Magic Kingdom (or another caster we know, but Sizemore seems most likely)

    As for how they would hire a caster without going to the Magic Kingdom personally, hat magic seems likely, or getting the attention of an MK thinkamancer (presumably after thousands and thousands of turns there's a protocol for this so that hiring is streamlined).

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:05 am 
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    Arky wrote:
    As for how they would hire a caster without going to the Magic Kingdom personally, hat magic seems likely, or getting the attention of an MK thinkamancer (presumably after thousands and thousands of turns there's a protocol for this so that hiring is streamlined).


    Here's an interesting question. Can inanimate objects pass through the portal without being carried by a caster? If so then rulers could just toss a note with a job offer through.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:37 am 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    He might have considered it a necessary risk. Yes, acting allows the confrontation to happen sooner, but if Parson is Fated to defeat Charlie, then its going to try to happen sooner or later regardless of what Charlie does.
    That sounds more like madness than a calculated risk. That sounds like Charlie going to all this effort to get rid of Parson while knowing in advance that he will fail. A total waste of Charlie's short remaining time.

    ManaCaster wrote:
    Jojo claimed that Carnymancy has the power to resist Fate and that his scroll would do exactly that. If he was being truthful, then that would be enough to explain Charlie's actions.
    While there's room for plenty of doubt about Jojo's truthfulness, maybe it's a good idea to take a close look at what he said. In Book 2, Page 62: "Yes, Parson Gotti, Lord of Hamsters, do you believe that Fate is a mighty wind? One that propels us inexorably to our final destination? Or do you believe that the individual can steer the ship of self, to his port of choice, however emphatically the world may try to blow him?"

    Clearly he is making no mention of Predictamancy or Predictions. He's talking about Fate, but Fate is an axis that many disciplines are aligned with, including Carnymancy. He doesn't necessarily mean that you can escape the outcome that a Predictamancer has foreseen. On top of that, Jojo is clearly exaggerating. No one can totally control where he ends up, not even with magic. If Jojo can steer his ship to any port he chooses, then why isn't he still working for Unaroyal? The world emphatically blew him away from Unaroyal, and he had no power to resist.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:39 am 
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    Omnimancer wrote:
    Arky wrote:
    As for how they would hire a caster without going to the Magic Kingdom personally, hat magic seems likely, or getting the attention of an MK thinkamancer (presumably after thousands and thousands of turns there's a protocol for this so that hiring is streamlined).


    Here's an interesting question. Can inanimate objects pass through the portal without being carried by a caster? If so then rulers could just toss a note with a job offer through.


    Given what we've seen of Portal Park, though, it's a bit haphazard to toss a note through and hope someone happens to be walking past any time soon and picks it up (and that they have an interest in passing along the note in a timely manner or at all). Even if that's possible it would be far from ideal.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:43 am 
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    My pet theory is that a prediction was made that a summoned warlord would kill Charlie. It was supposed to be Judy, but she chose not to kill Charlie (and suffered as a result, btw, hard path and all), and then Judy used the shoes to go home. Charlie knows that if he tries to fight and kill the person fated to kill him, he will fail. So instead, when another summoned warlord comes along, he tries to engineer a situation where that warlord will also choose to leave. Charlie may not be able to stop his fate from coming to pass, but I think he intends to try and stall it indefinitely if he can.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:56 am 
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    Lipkin wrote:
    My pet theory is that a prediction was made that a summoned warlord would kill Charlie. It was supposed to be Judy, but she chose not to kill Charlie (and suffered as a result, btw, hard path and all), and then Judy used the shoes to go home. Charlie knows that if he tries to fight and kill the person fated to kill him, he will fail. So instead, when another summoned warlord comes along, he tries to engineer a situation where that warlord will also choose to leave. Charlie may not be able to stop his fate from coming to pass, but I think he intends to try and stall it indefinitely if he can.

    If that IS the case, Charlie's interest in freeing decrypted archons becomes a lot more interesting. With the pliers he can find a loophole.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:09 am 
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    Lamech wrote:
    Lipkin wrote:
    My pet theory is that a prediction was made that a summoned warlord would kill Charlie. It was supposed to be Judy, but she chose not to kill Charlie (and suffered as a result, btw, hard path and all), and then Judy used the shoes to go home. Charlie knows that if he tries to fight and kill the person fated to kill him, he will fail. So instead, when another summoned warlord comes along, he tries to engineer a situation where that warlord will also choose to leave. Charlie may not be able to stop his fate from coming to pass, but I think he intends to try and stall it indefinitely if he can.

    If that IS the case, Charlie's interest in freeing decrypted archons becomes a lot more interesting. With the pliers he can find a loophole.

    Do you mean, let Parson kill him, then get revived by magic similar to the Arkenpliers? Maybe, though the Fate magic surrounding Sylvia certainly didn't dissolve with her death. Course, we don't really know all the details.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:44 am 
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    Lilwik wrote:
    ManaCaster wrote:
    He might have considered it a necessary risk. Yes, acting allows the confrontation to happen sooner, but if Parson is Fated to defeat Charlie, then its going to try to happen sooner or later regardless of what Charlie does.
    That sounds more like madness than a calculated risk. That sounds like Charlie going to all this effort to get rid of Parson while knowing in advance that he will fail. A total waste of Charlie's short remaining time.

    Addressed by the second point about the Carnymancy scroll. My theory essentially agrees with Lipkin's.

    Lilwik wrote:
    Clearly he is making no mention of Predictamancy or Predictions. He's talking about Fate, but Fate is an axis that many disciplines are aligned with, including Carnymancy. He doesn't necessarily mean that you can escape the outcome that a Predictamancer has foreseen.

    If he isn't referring to the same force/insight that Predictamancers use, then what sort of gibberish is he talking about? I haven't heard Fate used in any other context in this story. Could you enlighten me?

    Lilwik wrote:
    On top of that, Jojo is clearly exaggerating. No one can totally control where he ends up, not even with magic. If Jojo can steer his ship to any port he chooses, then why isn't he still working for Unaroyal? The world emphatically blew him away from Unaroyal, and he had no power to resist.

    Of course he was exaggerating. That was a metaphor. I doubt he was literally trying to say that with Carnymancy, you can become all powerful. It doesn't have to be taken at face value word for word.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 3:17 am 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    If he isn't referring to the same force/insight that Predictamancers use, then what sort of gibberish is he talking about? I haven't heard Fate used in any other context in this story. Could you enlighten me?
    I don't know what he is talking about. It sounds almost like gibberish to me too. All I know is that he might not be talking about Predictamancy.

    ManaCaster wrote:
    Of course he was exaggerating. That was a metaphor. I doubt he was literally trying to say that with Carnymancy, you can become all powerful. It doesn't have to be taken at face value word for word.
    If there are limits to his power to control events, then it makes perfect sense for Predictamancy to occupy the space beyond those limits. I imagine a battlefield with two warring sides, each controlling certain territory. Predictamancy makes Predictions that can't be changed. Carnymancy changes the things that can be changed. In that way the two disciplines fight for control over Fate. That seems perfectly consistent with what I guess Jojo was really trying to say. It's not consistent with what he actually said, but it seems we all agree that what he actually said was nonsense that he didn't actually mean.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 7:03 am 
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    I have a theory that Parson's Fate to kill Charlie is a result of Charlie using the summon perfect warlord spell. I also think Wanda is aware if this unfortunate side effect and convinced Stanley to use the spell, hoping the perfect warlord would croak Stanley so she could take the hammer.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 8:24 am 
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    Lilwik wrote:
    drachefly wrote:
    I like how he used predictamancy in ways that don't trigger its worst effects. Ask about things that you actually need to know, where any answer is useful.
    Knowledge is always good. You should ask about things you need to know, but surely there aren't actually any bad questions that have bad effects.


    1) Different questions have different Expected Value of Information.

    2) If you were perfectly rational, sure. But if you ask questions where legal answers are 'you're screwed, sorry', then maybe on average that question could have had a positive expected outcome but a very negative actual outcome.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 10:56 am 
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    Doesn't the prediction allow for some loopholes? What if Posbrake had hired a mancer capable of casting 'mute' on a large group of units? Or if DigDoug had cut his tongue out and had it grown back by a Healamancer the following turn?

    Of course, that wouldn't have ensured victory, but it'd allow outcomes where Digdoug still lives while being in Weatherbug.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:36 pm 
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    Arky wrote:
    The question remains whether...
    • Predictions are all self-fulfilling prophecies...
    • they will happen one way or the other no matter what...
    • it is the act of Prediction that locks in the event


    THIS.

    I haven't seen bulletproof evidence of any of these. But reasoning about the ramifications of each yields three very different views of the role of Fate.

    View #1 implies that causality (Numbers) rules, primarily. No set future exists, all branches are possible. Fate is passive and requires a trigger to activate. Prediction "creates" a Fate by collapsing all of the possible futures down so they flow through a chokepoint. In the case of Wanda's origin, the trigger is some statisically unlikely event, which "numerically" requires a Fated future counterbalance. Predictamancers can't "pick" what that Fate is - Erfworld just runs a sim related to the request and then "saves" the answer for when the time comes.

    View #2 implies that Fate rules. Basically, there is a single, set future. Predictamancy is merely the act of seeing some bit of the future and telling people about it. The Prediction itself changes nothing - because nothing can change.

    View #3 suggests a middle ground - the future is variable, as in View 1, but instead of being infinitely variable there are locuses of "likelihood" (big rolls?) that are going to be on the timeline. These locuses aren't bound to a specific unit/location/Fate, until they are made bound by a Prediction, or "modified" by a Mathemagician. If they remain unbound, then whoever/whatever happens to be there lucks into the big roll. So, the future is guaranteed to have "good"/"bad" Fates, in the same sense as there are guaranteed to be natural 1's and 20's. Predictamancy/Mathemancy act to tie them down to a particular thing/person.

    I'm in the #3 camp. My take is: there were going to be some huge rolls that turn. Digdoug had already established the defenses that would ensure the destruction of the NumLoch forces. The Prediction, "knowing" Digdoug would not be there to collect those big rolls, bound them to NumLoch, thus ensuring the destruction of the HomeKey forces (sans golem) as well.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:50 pm 
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    The fact that Predictions fail to see every detail of a future event suggests that the event was always going to happen one way or another. Based on this and the way Predictamancers discuss things, I have a theory that involves stealing some Doctor Who lingo.

    There are in Erfworld "Fixed Points", however not all of the details of these fixed points are static. The event may occur at any given time, or it may involve differing individuals, or etc, but it will always happen in some manner. These "Fixed Points" are connected by spans of totally free time that may progress based on the free-will actions of units and the environment.

    So the future is not even remotely fixed, but certain aspects of it are. And the more skilled a Predictamancer is, the more of those similarities they are able to see.

    So for example, take the Fall of FAQ via Stanley. Lets say there are hypothetically 5 different ways this could come about. A Novice would tell you the Side will fall someday. An Adept will tell you that, plus the fact that it will happen because Banhammer croaks. And a Master would tell you he is survived by an Heir. However, in 2 of those the Heir may be male and in 3 its female. In 4 of them it's Stanley, in 1 it's Charlie. And so on. There was no future in which FAQ survives, but there were other possibilities for how it happens, and in the story we just happened to see one of those ways play out. So every Prediction will come true, because the caster is seeing common elements that exist in every possible future.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:05 pm 
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    I'm a bit curious about the end of the conversation here. The king says they'll need another loophole, but the prediction that he says doesn't require one for them to survive. They "will face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it will come by air". Why do they need a loophole for that? I mean, I can see some. Enemy units come and threaten attack but then leave maybe. Or the father nation threatens to break alliance with massive air units. But why do they *need* a loophole? Why is fighting not simply good enough? I wonder if there's more to that prediction. Hell, there's not even a vague timeframe reference. If I were the king I'd set up a line of succession with a contract that the city will automagically change name if the king is croaked and then head off somewhere else. If there's more to the prophesy than is stated, such that the attack is imminent, hire Charlie to attack the city and blame it on the enemy to try to make the parent nation more afraid and less likely to turn then try to patch up relations with them. Or maybe just buff up defenses then.

    Oh, and I forgot to mention, change the capital.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:38 pm 
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    Actually, hell, just gift the city to someone and avoid taking it back. That way you won't come under attack there until you're tricked into taking the city back. Which will be a long time from now. Which you'll have to be around to do.

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     Post subject: Re: Digdoug - Episode 7
     Post Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 3:28 pm 
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    cheeseaholic wrote:
    They "will face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it will come by air". Why do they need a loophole for that?


    I read
    King Posbrake wrote:
    “We’re going to need another loophole like that,”
    as "We're going to need another outcome in our favor, despite a bad-sounding Prediction." Meaning, in Posbrake's opinion, if you manage not to die horribly in response to a bad Prediction, you've "cheated" Fate.

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