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 Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 7:25 pm 
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Denar wrote:
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but he was contractually obligated to carry out Charlie’s calculation unless it would hurt his side, and he couldn’t make a good enough case to refuse it.

So he doesn't have to do what Charlie says if it endangers his side, but he was happy to tell him exactly how many Archons he's need to take G's Garrison?


I think it's more like, Parson can put off calculating for Charlie if doing so is going to hurt Gobwin Knob. As in, Charlie can't call up at any time and paralyse Parson just by asking for a bunch of calculations if Parson has something important to be doing.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 7:26 pm 
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    Oh Charlie... Tell me you didn't spend all that time on that spell, and the best you could do was "roses are red, violets are blue"? :P

    But the plot, it is thickening! Who or what is messing with the odds?!

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 7:31 pm 
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    I was kinda thinking it was because he specified "here and now". As in, that very place, at that very instant.

    Lacking time travel abilities, his chance of doing something in a specific moment in time falls to 0 once that moment has passed.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 7:35 pm 
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    Wouldn't it be funny if Parson is Fated to defeat Fate at some point?

    Phoenix1 wrote:
    I was kinda thinking it was because he specified "here and now". As in, that very place, at that very instant.

    Lacking time travel abilities, his chance of doing something in a specific moment in time falls to 0 once that moment has passed.

    Then why would doing it consecutively result in two different answers at the same time? Parson already said exactly what's going on: "The bracer was lying. It was telling him he didn’t have a chance. Why? So he wouldn’t try to cast Charlie’s spell... 'Jojo said it’s free will versus Fate,' he said. 'But I’m really just getting railroaded by two different GMs here.' "

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 7:37 pm 
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    Guys: has anyone considered that the zero displays are Jojo's gaffe, for when "everyone's heading for the exits"? The evidence I'm seeing in favor here is:

    1) Jojo has been close to Parson recently.
    2) Charlie isn't above giving necessary information to those in a position to help him out--giving him the idea is certainly not a stretch, I think.
    3) Being unable to engage, Jojo has no reason to not spend a bit of juice on this.

    Arguments against:

    1) We have no concrete reason to believe that Jojo can mess with the bracer.
    2) We never see anything that looks like Jojo casting, besides that attempt at the Carnymancy scroll.
    3) Casting on an active, unengaged enemy's items: possible? Are power magic items like the bracer susceptible to this tomfoolery?

    Discuss, maybe?

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 8:30 pm 
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    Terrador wrote:
    Guys: has anyone considered that the zero displays are Jojo's gaffe, for when "everyone's heading for the exits"? The evidence I'm seeing in favor here is:
    ...
    2) Charlie isn't above giving necessary information to those in a position to help him out--giving him the idea is certainly not a stretch, I think.

    Charlie and Jojo know what that scroll does. Why would Jojo want to discourage Parson from using it? Charlie specifically wants Parson to use that scroll to defeat Fate.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 8:46 pm 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    Terrador wrote:
    Guys: has anyone considered that the zero displays are Jojo's gaffe, for when "everyone's heading for the exits"? The evidence I'm seeing in favor here is:
    ...
    2) Charlie isn't above giving necessary information to those in a position to help him out--giving him the idea is certainly not a stretch, I think.

    Charlie and Jojo know what that scroll does. Why would Jojo want to discourage Parson from using it? Charlie specifically wants Parson to use that scroll to defeat Fate.


    That, or die. But, good point... Charlie probably wasn't involved, in this case.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 9:21 pm 
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    Lots of clever insights in this thread.

    Yes, Parson is possibly a titan or a prototitan. There's no point in speculating too much on this, but it's implied in the very premise of the story.

    Fate is probably the will of "players," though I'm quite unclear on how this would play out. I'm opposed to the idea of Fate, but that's also the reason I find it's presence interesting. It's a midiclorian thing: I like to watch the train crash.

    The rapid alteration in the bracer's display is pretty strong evidence that the bracer itself is a simplistic device, and not laden with any treachery or manipulative intent. This is important.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 9:31 pm 
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    Perhaps the Thinkomancers are manipulating the device or Parson's mind somehow. They are the only group that does not want Parson to read the scroll that also has a significant amount of power.

    The beam falling on Parson's head was disappointing. I hope Rob isn't having fate take such a blatant and clumsy role in this update.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 9:39 pm 
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    Rerunning the calc ten times was f'n brilliant.

    Can someone explain the:

    Quote:
    The Warlord Antium and the last four Decrypted troops were beating the flames with cloaks and rugs at the other end of the room. That had seemed pointless at first, but then he remembered something about how units taking action to fight the fire could effectively transfer their actions to a unit they were protecting.

    So...he’d better do something.


    Does this mean Antium and the other infantry are taking the fire damage that would have damaged Parson?

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 9:42 pm 
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    Quote:
    Of course this was a spell. Of course it was. And it was built like...a key that would unlock the spell that had brought him here. He could see what it was. It was a spell to break a spell and snap it back. It would...fling him home. And he knew how to cast it.

    This is key here. I've suspected this for a few updates. After some amount of drama, Parson will cast this scroll and undo the turnamancy spell. What that will achieve is hard to guess. Conceivably, the whole hex will be reset to conditions when the spell was cast. It would certainly be on par with waking the volcano in it's impact.

    Of course, Parson is now unconscious in the inferno, so getting to that point is going to take a lot of doing. Especially since the carnymancers aren't just going to let GK casters go back and save him when they star "Heading for the exits."

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 9:46 pm 
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    The way I read it: Parson specified casting in the "here and now" for the first calc, then “True/false: I could create conditions here and now that would give me non-zero odds of casting the Carnymancy spell.” His Caster Spidey Sense didn't unlock until he opened the scroll. After that exposure, magic started making sense and now he can cast the scroll. I guess that doesn't give insight into the 98%/0.0% though. I've gotta go with the Fate interferance on this one. My personal crackbrain theory is that Parson learns he has Reconjuration abilities, and will have to deal with the emotional ramifications of using/not using it.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 9:50 pm 
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    arkerpay wrote:
    Perhaps the Thinkomancers are manipulating the device or Parson's mind somehow. They are the only group that does not want Parson to read the scroll that also has a significant amount of power.


    I doubt this. Were this the case, the bracer would just appear to display 0.0 and be done with it (regardless of what it's actually displaying. The time lag makes it more likely that either the bracer itself is acting up, or some kind of automatic foolamancy is involved (automatic because Jack could probably time it properly, if he were doing it himself).

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 9:56 pm 
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    So, an annoying GM would react to the players' decisions by changing the gameworld such that the decisions resulted in the same outcome. Perhaps that was what we were seeing with the bracer resetting to zero repeatedly. The probability was high, but then fate said "nope, if you intend to cast that, then I'mma drop a beam on your head" and the probability dropped.

    Anyway, this might have been Charlie's real victory. He might know that Parson is fated to beat him, and Deus Ex will see to it that Parson does unless Parson also fights fate himself. No better way to make a player stubborn than to be heavy handed with GM manipulations, and now Charlie has made Parson see just how heavy handed Erfworld is willing to be.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 10:03 pm 
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    Maybe the bracer itself has more than one answer? The summoning spell was fulfilling something like four prophecies, while also serving Gobwin Knob - not to mention the parameters were entered by a Croakamancer instead of a Findamancer. Maybe the conflicting GMs are the different prophecies trying to beeline to their own resolutions, and coming into conflict with each other?

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 10:22 pm 
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    It never occurred to me Parson could use the scroll on a target other than himself. Could he use it on Charlie?

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 10:25 pm 
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    Arlor wrote:
    It never occurred to me Parson could use the scroll on a target other than himself. Could he use it on Charlie?

    Probably, but unless Charlie was brought to Erfworld by a similar spell, I doubt it would do anything.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 10:55 pm 
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    ManaCaster wrote:
    Arlor wrote:
    It never occurred to me Parson could use the scroll on a target other than himself. Could he use it on Charlie?

    Probably, but unless Charlie was brought to Erfworld by a similar spell, I doubt it would do anything.


    Maybe he could use it to recall Judy and the Arkenshoes, by cancelling their 'return to Stupidworld' effect? I don't see anything specifying where the target has to be when the scroll is cast on them, and the magic might be similar enough.

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 11:10 pm 
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    The idea of one number appearing briefly before being replaced with another was a pretty cool touch. It reminds me of modeling software (e.g., MPlus) that is capable of performing more advanced statistic techniques.

    Individuals who have taken an undergraduate statistics course (even advanced statistics courses taken in 3rd or 4th year) are typically only trained in basic "traditional" statistics based off Ordinary Least Squares (e.g., ANOVA, Multiple Regression) estimation wherein the "best" parameter estimate is the one that minimizes the error residual between each observed value and each predicted value.

    A newer family of statistics are the "modeling" techniques based around Maximum Likelihood estimation which works kind of backwards - it's kind of hard to explain. While you can perform traditional statistics by hand, the more contemporary family of stats is so computationally demanding that you need computer programs to handle them. The process is "iterative" in the sense that for each "paramater" (i.e., statement) a value is provided, checked, re-provided over and over and over again until the numbers stop changing (or stop changing much). If the data you supply is non-sensical, the parameter estimates never stabilize (we say that the matrix does not converge) and it's one of the most frustrating things in the world ever.

    This just reminded me of that. Of course, in this case, instead of 1,000 iterations, we only saw 1 (or 2, depending on how you count it) so I guess my analogy isn't apt. But anyways, I thought it was amusing.

    Also - Question: Why doesn't Parson ask the bracer what the probability is that the scroll will do "______"? E.g., "What is the probability that this scroll will actually return me to Earth?" Seems like a worthwhile thing to have asked this whole time...

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     Post Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 11:32 pm 
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    Geordy wrote:
    What I find remarkable is that Parson doesnt give a damn about the units with him. If he manages to read that spell he goes *poof* leaving behind a sad Antium in a lethal inferno. Of course he has to take this way out but he could at least say goodbye to Antium and thank him for his deeds. ... Compare that to Tramennis - with a bleeding heart and huge empathy ... These sides are definitely of different quality.


    Not just the sides, but also the circumstances. Antium was someone Parson met a few minutes ago, who never properly chose to be on Parson's side. They happen to be in a 'moments from death' situation, and Parson indeed delayed too long even without a farewell, so yes, the clock was ticking. There was nothing left Parson could think of to save Antium at all, and he tried all of those first.

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