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 Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
 Post Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2011 12:57 pm 
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Sieggy wrote:
". . . rather not do this by force" says the short guy to the really big warlord with a sword and a staff and a raft of magical items that we don't know about yet but must do something or he wouldn't be carrying them, not to mention 3 casters backing him up, who is what looks like two steps away from the portal he was heading for. Sorry, but given the Staff of Suckage, I can just see Parson saying "well, OK, we can discuss this when I get back, but right now I'm late for work", and just going through them like a bulldozer.
That's my vote also. Telling the guy who is two steps away from his goal that it's "not optional" is about 15 steps too late.
darkgolem wrote:
Marie is starting to annoy me. It's obvious that she makes mistakes from the fact that her kingdom fell, but she seems to think that she can atone for that by setting up Parson to stop war making it too terrible to be waged anymore.
You seem to have a misapprehension of Marie. She cannot feel guilty for the fall of her side, she predicted it would happen and she was right. Others may arrive at the erroneous conclusion that predictamancers ought to be able to prevent the future they predict, but so far as we have seen to date within the strip, that is a false conclusion. Wanda did attune to an arkentool. FAQ did fall.

The confusion over her part in veiling the city was assuming that she predicted that the city would be spotted, and then that future was rendered false. Instead, she predicted that there would be an enemy unit within viewing distance of a FAQ city, and then Jack veiled it. No changing of the predicted future is involved there.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2011 3:54 pm 
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    Lamech wrote:
    True Vanna was technically working for Jillian, but who are we kidding. She did exactly what Charlie wanted when she cast Kingworld. Are you going to really argue that Kingworld wasn't Charlie's plan?


    I'm not arguing Kingworld wasn't Charlie's Plan. I'm arguing that Vanna (and pretty much the rest of Erfworld) don't know it was Charlie's plan. Jillian after all managed to fool Vinnie about the giant betrayal. He got some suspicions yes, but never managed to link it to Charlie.

    And with Kingworld Jetstone and even GK probably still don't know it was Charlie. Only Slatley at best noticed the mancer was linked, and if he did figure it out he hasn't told anyone yet. Trems may be able to connect the dots later on, but so far, all they know is that Jillian pulled out some crazy magic stunt, while Charlie remains the mastermind hidden behind the curtain.

    That was actually one of the key points for Charlie in the middle of all of this. He doesn't want to show himself favoring sides.

    So from Vanna's point of view, what she sees is a royal queen offering her a contract and then hiring Charlie as well to make a link with her for some crazy magic combo. She isn't a thinkmancer, and she also didn't know Jillian beforehand, so hey, it's just possible that some mad genius girl hired her! Somewhat fishy, but she's being paid, gets to enact revenge, and she can't really see the whole picture like we do.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2011 8:53 pm 
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    atteSmythe wrote:
    Could be an interesting turn of events...If Parson does decide to engage, and if Janis were to neutralize as many Thinkamancers as she can, it strikes me that Wanda's escape plan is to leave Spacerock through the MK. If the battle at Spacerock were to somehow take a turn for the worst, they'd walk out of the portal and straight into an engagement with their Chief Warlord.

    Or, better than that, he's Chief Warlord. I suppose if he knows that they're waiting for him, he can order them through at any time. Nice.


    I didn't think of it before, but it also should be remembered for the "Parson and his casters should fight the Thinkamancers" side of things they would still be in portal park, which has plenty of other casters around who would side against Parson/Wanda if they started fighting there. Unless Parson did the bare minimum fighting to get through the portal, but that would presumably leave Sizemore, Marie and Janis in danger (unless they went with him...)

    Personally I don't think it will come to Parson trying to force his way through just yet, if only because they said the magic word to Parson's question of whether Maggie arranged this - "Yes." Even though she didn't really arrange it like this. I wonder how that plays with Duty with a "Copital "D"" - Parson knows Maggie works for GK, and is therefore compelled to serve it as best she can. If Parson believes she arranged this then he would have to think "ok, she couldn't be doing this is she thought/knew it would be bad for GK, so if I do/don't go with them will it be bad for GK?" etc. Maybe he would think "she must think I would be in too much danger of being killed and loosing me would be to great a loss for GK, so she has done this to protect me and GK" or something like "she must feel whatever they have to tell me is pretty important for me and GK and she saw this as the opportunity to have them tell me".

    Oberon wrote:
    Agreed. Wanda has stated that CharlesComm is the last of the GK targets, because he is a 'tool owner.


    Well - "Charlescomm is the last side we would ever attack". What Wanda means there could be a couple of things (they will attack Charlie last or they hope they never have to attack Charlie at all). But while royals talk of Toolists and Toolist philosophy of throwing down royalty, I don't think Stanley thinks in those terms (or Wanda necessarily, she has said she doesn't know the big picture, or where fate will take them).

    I don't think Stanley would have a problem with attacking Charlescomm. I think he'd like to take Charlie out because he hates him, and would do so if the chance arose and wouldn't stop because "fate/tool/fate". Wanda wouldn't because she sees things as "it was fate Charlie attuned, ergo fate wanted the tool with Charlie and there is a reason he isn't on our side, and we will allow that. Because fate." - Parson is the wild card. He doesn't control the side like either Stanley or Wanda, but as a Chief Warlord he sees Charlie as one big, old threat who they'd be better off without. And he doesn't necessarily by into Wanda's fate-ism. Plus we have seen Maggie can influence Stanley if she needs. The limit of this is unknown, but if the GMTTA pushed her to push Stanley to take the fight to Charlie?

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    Last edited by Dancing Cthulhu on Sat Jul 09, 2011 9:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2011 9:02 pm 
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    Oberon wrote:
    To the rest of your post on the supposed attack of GK against CharlesComm, you're forgetting one key factor: Parson is still magically bound to provide Charlie with several (is it 9 now?) magical calculations. This gives Charlie a lot of opportunities to learn what Parson plans and counter it.


    No, it doesn't help that much. When he asks, he automatically let's Parson know what Charlie knows about the attack, so Parson immediately alters the plan making that knowledge useless.

    Oberon wrote:
    The confusion over her part in veiling the city was assuming that she predicted that the city would be spotted, and then that future was rendered false. Instead, she predicted that there would be an enemy unit within viewing distance of a FAQ city, and then Jack veiled it. No changing of the predicted future is involved there.


    Time out! We do not know how Prediction works in Erfworld. By Prediction, you can read "Prophecy".

    We know that a Predictamancer whose Side falls is viewed as a failure; however, if you get a Prediction that the Side will fall and you cannot alter that future, then it's not reasonable to blame the Predictamancer for what cannot be altered. This is a strong suggestion that Predictions are not inevitable.

    While Wanda views her Prediction as Fate, Wanda is entirely egotisstical, and that may reflect more on her personality than the general view of Predictamancy.

    Philip K. Dick wore the "Minority Report". In the original short story, the lead character was the same -- someone that received the prophecies of the three Psychics. He received a Prophecy that he would kill someone, from 2 of 3 Psychics -- the third said he wouldn't do it. The story became a muddle of trying to figure out why one or two Psychics saw different futures, which was unprecedented.

    The answer? They saw three futures. IN the first, from the weakest Pyshic, he saw our hero kill. The second most powerful saw the future in which all three had given him a prediction of murder, in which he would not kill, because he was found out. The most powerful saw the future in which the second and third agreed that he wouldn't kill, so he took a chance and killed. Complex? Yep... you may have to draw it out. In the end, they couldn't jail him for murder, because there was reasonable doubt, and he didn't actually do in the real future.

    My point? That's a world where the future can be changed by knowing the future. There is nothing paradoxical about something that has not happened. Paradox only occurs if you prevent a future that has already happened.

    When you include prophecy in your story, an author has to make a number of choices:
    1) How reliable is Prophecy? Is ti an absolute, or a probable event?
    2) How accurate is the wording? Can the prophecy be achieved in multiple ways? A Criminal Minds episode had a pyschic's reading suggest a girl was kidnapped near a seaside. Outside the downtown window of the warehouse she was found in, there was a mural advertising a vacation on the beach. Many would call Nostradamus' quatrains of this type, because they are very subject to interpretation.
    3) How accurate in time is it? Ie. "You'll cross the street in 4 minutes" vs. "You'll cross the street." The second will definitely come true for the vast majority of people.)
    4) Does the Prophecy include the effect of knowing the Prophecy itself? The Matrix oracle asks, "What's really gonna bake your noddle is would you have spilled the cookies if I hadn't told you that you would?" In the Minority Report, none of the Psychics saw the true future, in the end.

    Having run an Eberron campaign, and included the Draconic Prophecy (for which D&D did not answer the above questions, leaving me to use my own definition), I have a certain familiarity with answering those questions.

    The difference between an author and a DM is that the author can force characters into particular actions: the DM has no control over player characters, without their cooperation. So, it is best not to go wiht the "single interpretation", and "cannot avoid" in an RPG, because the player can simply defy the Prophecy by choice. (One D&D party started a shipping company instead of dealing with the villain. Kinda hard to predict things when the players just go hard left off the tracks.)

    Anyway, my point is that there is no one definition for Prophecy or how it affects the world. UNtil we've got a little more on the specifics out of Marie, we're kinda stuck on exactly how much of Wanda's attitude was consistent with Erfworlder opinion on Predictamancy.

    [quote="Curxsed"]Lisa Kudrow, B.S. in Biology.]/quote]

    Not familiar with her. And I specifically remember nuclear physics for the girl I was thinking of. I'm not denying that it isn't Lisa in the comic, just that the person I'm trying to remember isn't Lisa.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2011 9:44 pm 
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    Kreistor wrote:
    Curxsed wrote:
    Lisa Kudrow, B.S. in Biology.]


    Not familiar with her. And I specifically remember nuclear physics for the girl I was thinking of. I'm not denying that it isn't Lisa in the comic, just that the person I'm trying to remember isn't Lisa.


    She's one of the friends from Friends (uhhg, I couldn't stand that show, but it is kind of funny since if I remember rightly she played the ditsy hippy). Nuclear physics... as long as you aren't thinking Christmas Jones as played by Denise Richards in The World is Not Enough you'll be ok.

    There are a number of smart actors and actresses out there (some of who just studied for a time and some who graduated) but who also played a character who had long blonde hair and famously appear in a red one piece swimsuit (distinctive enough to hint to a particular character)? While not a fan of Pamala Anderson or Baywatch, it is a vaguely iconic image of her in the red lifesaving swimsuit.

    Of course I keep saying Pamala Anderson - I guess it would actually be her Baywatch character (just like Spock Character is Spock, not Leonard Nimoy). I can't think of her name or whether she was smart or anything.

    Quote:
    Anyway, my point is that there is no one definition for Prophecy or how it affects the world. UNtil we've got a little more on the specifics out of Marie, we're kinda stuck on exactly how much of Wanda's attitude was consistent with Erfworlder opinion on Predictamancy.


    True. Heh, Marie herself raises more questions (to my mind) by bringing up the idea of soft/hard predictamancy (in relation to Jojo).

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 1:16 am 
    E is for Erfworld Supporter Print Book 2 & Draw Book 3 Supporter Pin-up Calendar and New Art Team Supporter Erfworld Bicycle® Playing Cards supporter Has collected at least one unit
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    I don't think the guy in judge's robes is Judge Joe Brown. My guess would be Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 1:27 am 
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    DoctorJest wrote:

    The problem with that is, that was a trap to lure him there so he could be made all explody later.


    The other problem is the Romulan in the comic is wearing a Romulan military uniform, something Vreenak was never shown wearing during In the Pale Moonlight

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 2:05 am 
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    Dancing Cthulhu wrote:
    Of course I keep saying Pamala Anderson - I guess it would actually be her Baywatch character (just like Spock Character is Spock, not Leonard Nimoy). I can't think of her name or whether she was smart or anything.


    Smart is a relative term; as best I recall, the collective IQ of every character on the show wouldn't have broken triple digits.

    Actually, I just had an amusing thought. What if Rob told Xin he wanted Gillian Anderson of The X-Files among the Thinkamancers, but because it's a somewhat dated reference, Xin misunderstood and went with Pamela Anderson instead? Or perhaps Rob just made a Freudian Slip and actually said Pamela instead of Gillian, and Xin just shrugged and went with it? (I know, probably not. Quality control is pretty high at Erfworld. But it would be hilarious if that's what happened. Like, Spinal Tap and Stonehenge funny!)

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:14 am 
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    atalex wrote:
    Dancing Cthulhu wrote:
    Of course I keep saying Pamala Anderson - I guess it would actually be her Baywatch character (just like Spock Character is Spock, not Leonard Nimoy). I can't think of her name or whether she was smart or anything.


    Smart is a relative term; as best I recall, the collective IQ of every character on the show wouldn't have broken triple digits.

    It is not clear yet that thinkomancy requires smart, it could simply be ability to affect thinking/persuade/distract.

    And not every mage is talented at his job, to quote "The last unicorn":

    '"I will tell you a story," Schmendrick said. "As a child I was apprenticed to the mightiest
    magician of all, the great Nikos, whom I have spoken of before. But even Nikos, who could turn
    cats into cattle, snowflakes into snowdrops, and unicorns into men, could not change me into so
    much as a carnival cardsharp. At last he said to me, 'My son, your ineptitude is so vast, your
    incompetence so profound, that I am certain you are inhabited by greater power than I have ever
    known. Unfortunately, it seems to be working backward at the moment, and even I can find no way
    to set it right."'

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:38 am 
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    About the discussion titled "Vanna can't work for Charlie" :

    Do we have evidence that order given by a ruler is still valid after that ruler gets croaked? I couldn't find an evidence which makes us think so.

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    I was hoping we could debate the meaning of "agent" in the the Declaration of Non-Aggression again. It totally hasn't been argued to death already.

    You know... at this point you boops aren't beating dead horses any more. You're making glue.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 9:28 am 
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    multilis wrote:
    It is not clear yet that thinkomancy requires smart, it could simply be ability to affect thinking/persuade/distract.


    True, true. I admit I got caught up with the idea of thinkamancers being smart in some way. Of course we have seen casters like Jack and Ace who are very, very smart cookies (and creative). And one would think mathmancers or moneymancers would also generally be more "smart" then not. And of course there are different kinds of smart.

    Although it does make for interesting thinking about what type of caster an individual would be (many of the ones inspired by or drawing from real world figures or other fictional characters have some link their craft - Pierce the healomancer, Vanna White the turnamancer, etc). One wonders what Andersons BW character's link to thinkamancy would be (I did like the early response to my "lol", makes enough sense).

    zilfallon wrote:
    About the discussion titled "Vanna can't work for Charlie" :

    Do we have evidence that order given by a ruler is still valid after that ruler gets croaked? I couldn't find an evidence which makes us think so.


    Not that I can see. And the update the subject was raised in, well, the word order wasn't even used. Bea didn't order them to never work for a non-royal side (as I don't think a ruler's order could carry on past their death, or more importantly past the end of the side), she made them pledge they wouldn't before setting them free.

    Which makes me think "Promise me you wont". With Bea gone the only person who would be hurt by breaking the promise would be the caster, and then it would only be emotional/mental hurt assuming they put weight in their pledge. Now we know casters and rulers can be close, have friendships, fall in love all that. I wouldn't think they would be any more or less capable of making a promise to someone they cared about/respected/liked and then keeping it (or breaking it) then anyone else.

    Of course considering the caster type - turnamancer, carnymancer and changemancer - they are the ones whose promise I would take with a grain of salt. Not because I don't think they could keep their promise to Bea if keeping their word was important to them, or if they cared enough for her. No, rather by reputation they are the ones I imagine would be tricky and be able to find ways around their promise without actually breaking it if they really wanted to - "well see, I never promised I wouldn't work for a side working closely with a non-royal, did I?"

    If they were somehow binding then I guess there is a chance a pledge/promises/oath can have some sort of power when made in Erfworld, we just haven't seen any evidence of that yet. I would think in that case it would be like other fictional settings where some deity/magic is invoked and breaking it can lead to unpleasantness like a lightning bolt from above (where as real world breaking a promise or an oath would usually only carry personal or social consequences - like people being angry with you, not trusting you etc - unless breaking the oath involves breaking the law at the same time). But if that were the case how could they get around it? We know units can turn, we know magic exists that affects the mind, loyalty all that. I guess if their pledge really was binding (whether they wanted to work for a non-royal side or not) there might be means to free themselves from the pledge (or someone else could do it against their wishes or without them even knowing).

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 11:04 pm 
    Print Book 2 & Draw Book 3 Supporter This user is a Tool! Year of the Dwagon Supporter This user was a Tool before it was cool Here for the 10th Anniversary Has collected at least one unit Erfworld Bicycle® Playing Cards supporter
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    Sieggy wrote:
    Of course, I think it would just be uproariously funny if Marie simply gave Parson a really good shove from behind and he fell through the portal . . . after all, I doubt thinkamancy could affect a falling object.


    That's going in the sig, Sieg.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 7:34 am 
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    Dancing Cthulhu wrote:
    Kreistor wrote:
    Curxsed wrote:
    Lisa Kudrow, B.S. in Biology.]


    Not familiar with her. And I specifically remember nuclear physics for the girl I was thinking of. I'm not denying that it isn't Lisa in the comic, just that the person I'm trying to remember isn't Lisa.


    She's one of the friends from Friends (uhhg, I couldn't stand that show, but it is kind of funny since if I remember rightly she played the ditsy hippy). Nuclear physics... as long as you aren't thinking Christmas Jones as played by Denise Richards in The World is Not Enough you'll be ok.


    Lisa Kudrow's character was Phoebe (sp.?), if I recall . In one episode she displayed telepathic abilities for a punchline joke in the intro/outro bit, and I have a vague hunch that she (the actress) has a PhD in ?psychology... I am now embarrassed about how much I seem to know about Friends!

    Wonderful strip, as ever! glad to see its all going funky crazy. I must admit, part of me thought that 'our' world and Erf were going to collide for that sound effect, and rather than 'ground up' we'd have had 'st(r)ep up'... (Sorry Rob, hope your feeling better!)

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:32 pm 
    Print Book 2 & Draw Book 3 Supporter Year of the Dwagon Supporter This user is a Tool! This user was a Tool before it was cool Shiny Red Star IRC Quote of the Moment
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    While I would go with Thurgood Marshall (a man who said you can wear white socks with black shoes), because
    - He's dead. As stated ealier, a preference for the deceased)
    - He presided over some classic cases that challenged thinking at the time.

    Why it could be Clarance Thomas
    - If you're going to say it's Pamela Anderson from Baywatch (living) and not Farrah Fawcett (deceased), then there's an argument for living. My first guess was Farrah Fawcett, but I'm seeming more posts for Pamela Anderson.
    - If "The Blond's" ability is based off the idea of stopping thinking, then Clarance Thomas fits (no slight intended). He's documented as not having asked a question on the court in over five years, and admits he doesn't even look at "his opinion" until his law clerks have written and scrubbed it for him three times first. (both easily google-able) I'm not saying he doesn't think (he said he believes people presenting a case shouldn't be interrupted--a good point as some of the other justices never stop asking questions), just that he does use his well of experience and insight to inspire the people before him to think deeper or differently.

    Yeah, it's a stretch. That's why I go with Marshall and Fawcett as much more likely.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 10:28 pm 
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    Kreistor wrote:
    Oberon wrote:
    To the rest of your post on the supposed attack of GK against CharlesComm, you're forgetting one key factor: Parson is still magically bound to provide Charlie with several (is it 9 now?) magical calculations. This gives Charlie a lot of opportunities to learn what Parson plans and counter it.

    No, it doesn't help that much. When he asks, he automatically let's Parson know what Charlie knows about the attack, so Parson immediately alters the plan making that knowledge useless.
    That's still a win for Charlie, as he pushes Parson into less and less optimal strategies.
    Kreistor wrote:
    We know that a Predictamancer whose Side falls is viewed as a failure; however, if you get a Prediction that the Side will fall and you cannot alter that future, then it's not reasonable to blame the Predictamancer for what cannot be altered. This is a strong suggestion that Predictions are not inevitable.
    You could take the position, sure. But we've seen plenty of evidence of blind prejudice in Erfworld. Royals look down on non-royals, and actively team up to squash one who happens to become successful, just because he isn't a royal; Croakamancers are referred to as "witch"; uncroaked are referred to as "abominations"; twolls are referred to as "beast". Etc, etc. It's no stretch to have predictamancers whose side falls be unfairly judged for the inevitability of the prediction coming true. Magic, even amongst the MK, does not seem to have any broad basis of understanding. And the attempts the MK to delve into the underpinnings of magic, such as the playground, seem rather pathetic at best. As further support, we have a 100% accuracy rating for predictions within the strip.

    I appreciate the references to The Minority Report and to the Ebberon game setting. But they have no weight in Erfworld. When an Erf prophesy is seen to fail, that'll be valid evidence.

    On a separate note, if predictamancy isn't 100% accurate, how is it significantly different than mathamancy? Mathamancy gives you odds, including odds for future events. If predictamancy also gives you odds future events, the two disciplines don't really have a lot to distinguish themselves from each other. There are still subtle differences, but not enough to give each school a distinct place in the magical arena.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:16 pm 
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    zilfallon wrote:
    About the discussion titled "Vanna can't work for Charlie" :

    Do we have evidence that order given by a ruler is still valid after that ruler gets croaked? I couldn't find an evidence which makes us think so.


    Let me bring a quote to your attention, from Summer Update 49 (the very last one):

    Quote:
    Vanna had been the perfect solution. Having a Turnamancer reduced the production of an heir by twenty turns, and with funds coming in from Transylvito, Vanna was able to boost Otoh and Kibo's production drastically. Don King was very happy, though he would not be if he ever found out it was Charlie who had funded Vanna's contract. Even Vinny didn't know about that.


    So we have Charlie funding Vanna's contract. We later learned that this was in part for the "Kingworld" link, which Charlie himself may or may not have been involved in. (My personal bias is that he was, but that's neither here nor there.) It was (at the time) solely about getting Jillian an heir and a fighting force at the same time. So maaaaaybe the recently-unemployed Vanna was the only turnamancer on hand, but since Charlie hires turnamancers periodically (to help make more Archons) it seems unlikely. And even though Royals have issues dealing with the alleged Toolist, non-GMtTA casters seem to have no problems with him, and in fact find him a very reputable employer. And, btw, Bea only told Don about the hiring clause.

    So we have what to me is a fishy hire, one that also happens to handily circumvent the oath to Bea if it still stands. And by Occam's Razor, Charlie either learned about that oath from one of the former casters (including, but not limited to, Vanna and Jeftichew), or from someone Don would tell. Someone who is friends with both Don and Charlie. That person is, as far as we know, exclusively could be Jillian.

    Now, none of this is proof by any means. There is no evidence that magic has "ontological inertia" (as TVTropes puts it), or that it doesn't. There is simply no direct evidence. Merely potential indirect evidence.

    On the other hand, Vanna could simply be a high-level turnamancer. Someone has to have one. No reason it should or shouldn't be Unaroyal. (Though I suspect big sides are at least as likely to have one or two very high level casters as anyone else (perhaps bar the MK), and it's more likely that only larger Royal sides would have the spare troops for two expeditionary armies, even if they expected to recoup their investment via loot & pillage.)

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2011 12:09 am 
    Print Book 2 & Draw Book 3 Supporter Here for the 10th Anniversary Has collected at least one unit
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    Oberon wrote:
    That's still a win for Charlie, as he pushes Parson into less and less optimal strategies.
    Yeah, see here's the problem. Parson is smart. He can just start with the less optimal strategies. Nor do I see how Charlie would learn anything from Parson.
    Charlie: So Parson do a battle calculation of the chance that GK will curbstomp me.
    Parson: 97.32%.
    Now all Charlie knows is he's really quite screwed.

    I suppose Charlie could ask "Whats the chance your strategy includes Y?", but first off that is taking a big shot in the dark, secondly Parson is likely to change the result if the answer is a high or low number, which would the bracer would take into account, which would affect Parson's reaction and so on and so forth. I wonder if Parson could make the bracer glitch... roll a 6 sided die? If the chance is low he includes element Y on a 6 if the chance is high he exclude element Y on a 6. No matter what the bracer does its wrong. THAT would really screw with Charlie.

    Of course this isn't happening anytime soon. Toolism prevents an attack on Charlie.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2011 12:52 am 
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    Lamech wrote:
    Toolism prevents an attack on Charlie.

    Parson thinks differently, he didn't tell his Toolship about why bracer thinks they can't find any wild gobwins to restart that natural ally. If he told Stanley it was probably Charlie, Stanley would want to attack too eagerly, when Parson thinks better to wait and find out Charlie's game, then make move.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:42 am 
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    Oberon wrote:
    That's still a win for Charlie, as he pushes Parson into less and less optimal strategies.


    No, most certainly not. HAving learned what Parson's strategy is, does Charlie actual use that information to determine how to deploy his troops? Parson knows that Charlie can, so Parson can choose a strategy that is specifically designed to deal with that defense.

    And no, it isn't a "win," in any sense. Charlie is still facing an unknown, and it has cost him at least one battle calculation.

    Kreistor wrote:
    I appreciate the references to The Minority Report and to the Ebberon game setting. But they have no weight in Erfworld.


    Of course they don't. They are demonstrations of the wide variety of potential implementations of prophecy.

    BTW, the sample space is far too small to draw any inference on whether predictions cannot fail at this point. It's entirely possible, but I'm looking at that stigma attached to Predictamancers whose Sides fall and thinking Predictions have to be able to be caused to fail. There's one thing about most of the Predictions that we've seen so far: most of them are positive for the receiver, so they want them to come true. Banhammer certainly tried to avoid his Side falling by popping an heir: kinda hard to explain why you'd pop an heir if you thought your Side falling was inevitable.

    _________________
    http://www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/TBFGK_1 Here you can find all comic pages written as text for convenient quoting.

    http://www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/Erfworld_Mechanics The starting page for accessing all known Erfworld "rules".

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 66
     Post Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2011 12:48 pm 
    Print Book 2 & Draw Book 3 Supporter Here for the 10th Anniversary Has collected at least one unit
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    Kreistor wrote:

    Of course they don't. They are demonstrations of the wide variety of potential implementations of prophecy.

    BTW, the sample space is far too small to draw any inference on whether predictions cannot fail at this point. It's entirely possible, but I'm looking at that stigma attached to Predictamancers whose Sides fall and thinking Predictions have to be able to be caused to fail. There's one thing about most of the Predictions that we've seen so far: most of them are positive for the receiver, so they want them to come true. Banhammer certainly tried to avoid his Side falling by popping an heir: kinda hard to explain why you'd pop an heir if you thought your Side falling was inevitable.
    There are a bunch of reasons to pop a heir even if the side is doomed. For example, they can lead the surviving units as a barbarian and at a later date recolonize the capital site. And furthermore even if the side was doomed to fall, Banhammer could have been saved. Build up a stash of rations and gems, and live like a wild tribe for a while. When the dwagons leave recolonize. Of course, this didn't happen, hence the failure.

    I suppose that if a predictamancer got a prediction like, "your side will fall, all heirs will croak, and the overlord will croak", they couldn't be blamed, but if they get "your side will fall" they could still totally keep something going after that.

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