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 Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:58 pm 
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All heavy hobgowins are still on weak types: yellow pink or purple. This is either a coincidence or strong dwagon types can carry heavy units (or two non-heavy units).

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:58 pm 
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    Question 1: can non-casters use scrolls?

    Question 2: are there any other casters in that group? (i.e. Parson is a novice Hippiemancer, might there be another novice something)?

    Question 3: Wanda could speak & move while previously incapacitated, can an incapacitated caster use a scroll?

    If the answer to any of the above is yes, then Wanda has a (2/3) = 66.7% chance of surviving.

    If the answer to all the above is no, then Wanda has a (Wanda uninjured) + (Wanda incapacitated)(Jack uninjured) = (1/3) + (1/3)(1/3) = 4/9 = 44.4%

    You'd think we'd see Parson computing these numbers at some point, or at least musing about them in the past.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:00 pm 
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    ╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛ wrote:
    Having a name didn't save a fish called Wanda from being harvested by Jillian... sorry... let's just hope banana was ridden by a hobgobwin


    Good catch. Oh well, alas, natural signamancy doesn't extend so far as to create a person once a name is bestowed. Shame really.

    Incidentally, do you pronounce your name with acute or grave accent on the u?

    Maeltne wrote:
    You'd think we'd see Parson computing these numbers at some point, or at least musing about them in the past.


    You'd think, but not necessarily. A plan's chance of success has something like a QM-thing going on, as in, it collapses once/if observed during planning.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:03 pm 
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    Maeltne wrote:
    Question 1: can non-casters use scrolls?

    Question 2: are there any other casters in that group? (i.e. Parson is a novice Hippiemancer, might there be another novice something)?

    Question 3: Wanda could speak & move while previously incapacitated, can an incapacitated caster use a scroll?

    If the answer to any of the above is yes, then Wanda has a (2/3) = 66.7% chance of surviving.

    If the answer to all the above is no, then Wanda has a (Wanda uninjured) + (Wanda incapacitated)(Jack uninjured) = (1/3) + (1/3)(1/3) = 4/9 = 44.4%

    You'd think we'd see Parson computing these numbers at some point, or at least musing about them in the past.



    Well since I don't remember 1 or 2 being mentionned earlier, it would be pretty out-of-the-ass a plot twist if it popped right now...

    And for 3... Semantically, I wouldn't call "incapacitated" a caster that can still cast even if only trough scroll

    BLANDCorporatio wrote:
    ╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛ wrote:
    Having a name didn't save a fish called Wanda from being harvested by Jillian... sorry... let's just hope banana was ridden by a hobgobwin


    Good catch. Oh well, alas, natural signamancy doesn't extend so far as to create a person once a name is bestowed. Shame really.

    Incidentally, do you pronounce your name with acute or grave accent on the u?


    Well, english not being my mother's tongue, I never realy learned the concepts you are refering to... we have accent in french but they work differently I guess... I guess I'd pronounce it like the word Forum and simply add the suffix "-ite".

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:09 pm 
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    Three things:

    1) Wanda isn't dead. Not only does the plot entirely hinge on her not dying right this very instant, her eyes aren't X-d out like the dragon she rode down. Incapacitated? Maybe. Dead? No.

    2) Jack is dead. This would be a good time for it, logically and narratively speaking. His decryption would be a useful twist in current relationships, and it's already been foreshadowed.

    Quote:
    Assuming 1/3 dead, 1/3 incapacitated and 1/3 awake, then the odds are


    3) Holy balls, stop it with the damn 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 thing. Just because it's one possible configuration of odds does not mean it is the only configuration, or even the default one, especially when you're explicitly told that the odds change significantly with height. And by making shit up you're almost guaranteed to be completely flippin' wrong, so why are you bothering.

    I MAD

    Quote:
    If the answer to all the above is no, then Wanda has a (Wanda uninjured) + (Wanda incapacitated)(Jack uninjured) = (1/3) + (1/3)(1/3) = 4/9 = 44.4%


    WHARGARBL

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:13 pm 
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    Beelzebuddy wrote:
    WHARGARBL



    WHARGARBL indeed.

    I would even go so far as to add, of course only if you have the grace to let me:

    qo9hvg54s gbsolhmf2annnvifdsobsailn!!!!!!!!!!1

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:15 pm 
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    Beelzebuddy wrote:
    WHARGARBL


    relax. Have a cup of coffee. Would it help if estimations were functions of h_c and h_i, where h_c is chance to croak, h_i is chance of incapacitation, and h_s = 1 - h_c - h_i is the chance of surviving more or less unscathed?

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:15 pm 
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    Maeltne wrote:
    Question 1: can non-casters use scrolls?

    Question 2: are there any other casters in that group? (i.e. Parson is a novice Hippiemancer, might there be another novice something)?

    Question 3: Wanda could speak & move while previously incapacitated, can an incapacitated caster use a scroll?

    If the answer to any of the above is yes, then Wanda has a (2/3) = 66.7% chance of surviving.

    If the answer to all the above is no, then Wanda has a (Wanda uninjured) + (Wanda incapacitated)(Jack uninjured) = (1/3) + (1/3)(1/3) = 4/9 = 44.4%

    You'd think we'd see Parson computing these numbers at some point, or at least musing about them in the past.


    Trotsky wrote:
    Just for laughs, I 'm going to redo the calculations based off of empirical evidence. If we go by the number of falling incidents we are aware of (Wanda and Ansom in book 1 and Parson/Banana in summer updates) then we have the observed probabilities as:
    death = 0 Incapacitation = 1/4 Injured = 3/4.

    Since straight death is, seemingly, impossible, it shall not be included in further calculations. Now for the absolutely useless (but highly entertaining) mathamancy:
    Wanda survives:
    injured only. Chances = 3/4
    Incapacitated and healed by Jack. Chances= 1/4 * 3/4 = 3/16
    total = 15/16

    Wanda does not survive:
    Both Wanda and Jack incapacitated. Chances = 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
    Total = 1/16

    I like them odds.

    And even that observation has at least three basic assumptions, 1) the mount and rider have separate probabilities, 2) the mount doesn't cushion the fall in some way, and 3) there is no difference between falling from having your mount shot out from under you and falling because the guy riding you is fat and made you jump off a rampart. Also, four subjects spread across three incidents are hardly statistically significant.

    Man, I love it when I get to auto-plagiarize in a topically appropriate manner, I didn't even have to rephrase anything to match the context.

    P.S. I didn't include Ansom being tackled by Bogroll because I assumed Being tackled (and likely landed on) by Bogroll adds damage and skews the results. It was most definitely NOT because I forgot that that would have been considered a fall. :ugeek:

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    Last edited by Trotsky on Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:19 pm 
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    BLANDCorporatio wrote:
    Beelzebuddy wrote:
    WHARGARBL


    relax. Have a cup of coffee. Would it help if estimations were functions of h_c and h_i, where h_c is chance to croak, h_i is chance of incapacitation, and h_s = 1 - h_c - h_i is the chance of surviving more or less unscathed?



    It does make perfect sense algebricaly (is it a word?) we'd only be missing a formulat to determine values of h_c and h_i in function of the height of the fall.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:33 pm 
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    BLANDCorporatio wrote:
    Beelzebuddy wrote:
    WHARGARBL


    relax. Have a cup of coffee. Would it help if estimations were functions of h_c and h_i, where h_c is chance to croak, h_i is chance of incapacitation, and h_s = 1 - h_c - h_i is the chance of surviving more or less unscathed?


    No it wouldn't, actually. You're still glossing over assumptions about the underlying system (h_c and h_i are certainly not independent variables), so it's not a helpful formulation from a reverse-engineering perspective, and you have no way to solve the system of equations or even limit their possible range, so it's useless from a practical perspective. I could just as easily say Wanda has a 10% survival chance, "because I fucking said so," and my number would be every bit as justified and correct as yours, i.e. not at all.

    The only useful thing we can say about Wanda's odds here is that they must have been good enough for Parson to risk it rather than pull a last-ditch escape attempt. Plugging in ass-pulled numbers can't contribute a god damned thing to that.

    And any discussion of odds is rendered entirely moot by the plot-critical nature of the stunt. Literally the whole book has been a build up to this very moment (or, actually, the decryption she's about to do). If Rob were George R. Martin, sure, she might still die, but he isn't, so right now Wanda's plot armor could likely tank a nuke to the face.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:38 pm 
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    the issue is, if wanda and jack are incapacitated. all it takes is JS deciding to volley the archons and end turn to TOTALLY SCREW GK over, since Wanda will die once the turn ends since JS is last in the turn order, oddly the rule about free move in your own city might allow them to attack the GK foes in the normally inviolate night, making for quite the slaughter and JS getting back the pliers. Though Trem's raging "I want to talk to Parson" boner is still being waved around fairly blatantly so there might still be a chance for sizemore and maggie popping up out of the ground with scrolls to heal them both while parson talks to Tre-faboo.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:39 pm 
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    Beelzebuddy wrote:

    And any discussion of odds is rendered entirely moot by the plot-critical nature of the stunt. Literally the whole book has been a build up to this very moment (or, actually, the decryption she's about to do). If Rob were George R. Martin, sure, she might still die, but he isn't, so right now Wanda's plot armor could likely tank a nuke to the face.


    I just started reading a book by that guy and am becoming attached to some of the characters... should I be concerned?


    fjolnir wrote:
    the issue is, if wanda and jack are incapacitated. all it takes is JS deciding to volley the archons and end turn to TOTALLY SCREW GK over, since Wanda will die once the turn ends since JS is last in the turn order, oddly the rule about free move in your own city might allow them to attack the GK foes in the normally inviolate night, making for quite the slaughter and JS getting back the pliers. Though Trem's raging "I want to talk to Parson" boner is still being waved around fairly blatantly so there might still be a chance for sizemore and maggie popping up out of the ground with scrolls to heal them both while parson talks to Tre-faboo.


    Neat point, but if Wanda and Jack are incapacitated then JS wouldn't want to end turn... they're going to have to deal with the duders down below one way or another, and it won't be hard to stick a fork in Wanda once the ground forces are down. If Wanda is incapacitated and Jack is fine though... you might be onto something.

    I have the feeling that the archons are going to get it before too long... this will open up an avenue of escape for Slately/Tram and free up some money (a la the bounty) to promote Tram.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:40 pm 
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    Beelzebuddy wrote:
    Three things:

    1) Wanda isn't dead. Not only does the plot entirely hinge on her not dying right this very instant, her eyes aren't X-d out like the dragon she rode down. Incapacitated? Maybe. Dead? No.

    2) Jack is dead. This would be a good time for it, logically and narratively speaking. His decryption would be a useful twist in current relationships, and it's already been foreshadowed.

    Quote:
    Assuming 1/3 dead, 1/3 incapacitated and 1/3 awake, then the odds are


    3) Holy balls, stop it with the damn 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 thing. Just because it's one possible configuration of odds does not mean it is the only configuration, or even the default one, especially when you're explicitly told that the odds change significantly with height. And by making shit up you're almost guaranteed to be completely flippin' wrong, so why are you bothering.

    I MAD


    I think the idea stems from this klog entry

    "When you fall, one of three things happens: you are injured (possibly only slightly), you are in capacitated (you croak in one turn if not given Healomancy), or you just croak. Height of the fall does seem to have some bearing on that, but it's essentially random. You can croak from like a three foot fall."

    http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -06-12.jpg

    I agree that the odds of injure/incapacitated/croak odds are unlikely to be 1/3 each, I think that what the text is getting at is that flying down close to the ground and jumping off your mount does not significantly change the odds.

    Most of the falls we have see so far have been non-fatal, but we do have one possible example of someone croaking from a fall: Ansom (unless Bogroll killed him on the way down).

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:40 pm 
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    Beelzebuddy wrote:
    And any discussion of odds is rendered entirely moot by the plot-critical nature of the stunt. Literally the whole book has been a build up to this very moment (or, actually, the decryption she's about to do). If Rob were George R. Martin, sure, she might still die, but he isn't, so right now Wanda's plot armor could likely tank a nuke to the face.



    Yeah... I can see Tramenis trying to speek with Parson after that:


    Tramenis:

    -Why did you kill your units, we were about to offer them to you for an alliance?

    Parson:

    -WHARGARBL!


    `
    And Ossomer's face right now must be very funny if he have no clue about the plan as some have mentionned it would have been better to avoid leaks.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:48 pm 
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    effataigus wrote:
    I just started reading a book by that guy and am becoming attached to some of the characters... should I be concerned?


    Yes.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:50 pm 
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    She is clearly alive. Hmm... I wonder if she can decrypt while incapacitated.

    Also it would be rather dumb if the heavies are protected from death. Then there should be a heavy on Wanda's dwagon.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:54 pm 
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    Parson's tossing everything on a gamble after all, I see.

    Yeah nothing about the "multiple units on a dragon and promote to heavy" (whether tried by Parson, or some explanation in a klog update why it's not possible) seems like a real oversight.

    Wanda - agreed, eyes not XX-ed out, but still, looks bad. Left leg and arm angle all wrong - it's like she broke her hip (or back?). Eyes closed - incapacitated. When Parson crashed Banana he got up immediately. If Jack didn't make it (no!!!!) then there's nobody there to use a healing scroll on her.

    Scarlett/Sylvia - "dying/croaking is an art", indeed :-). I hope she makes it too (though I guess considering the Plath "relationship" I guess it wouldn't surprise me if she didn't)

    Tramennis - about to realise he's outclassed in tactics, and that Parson really is "something else", something not seen before in Erfworld....

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:58 pm 
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    Beelzebuddy wrote:
    No it wouldn't, actually. You're still glossing over assumptions about the underlying system (h_c and h_i are certainly not independent variables), so it's not a helpful formulation from a reverse-engineering perspective, and you have no way to solve the system of equations or even limit their possible range, so it's useless from a practical perspective.


    Eh wot? So from complaining that others assume too much, you now say that I'm assuming too little? And "no limit of the range"? Surely you jest. You can get a formula, then you can either plot it or ask yourself what the values of h_c and h_i need to be, so that the chance of Wanda's ability to decrypt are such and such. Not helpful? Bah.

    I will make one assumption, so that I need 2 parameters instead of 4. Since Wanda and Jack are on the same initial height (more or less) and they are quite similar in the apparently relevant regards, I'll take h_c and h_i to be the same for both Wanda and Jack.

    Then, Wanda can decrypt either if she survives the fall unscathed, or she is incapacitated but Jack does survive. The two events will never happen at once (the initial state of Wanda after the fall is different) therefore I can add their probabilities to get the desired value. Probability for Wanda to survive unscathed is 1 - h_c - h_i. Probability of Wanda being healed is h_i*(1 - h_c - h_i) (Wanda needs to be incapacitated for this event to make sense, and Jack needs to survive unscathed; since the events are independent I can just multiply probabilities to get their intersection).

    Thus, probability of Wanda being able to decrypt is

    (1 - h_c - h_i)( 1 + h_i). Or, if we just rename 1 - h_c - h_i as h_s, probability to survive unscathed, we have
    h_s*(1 + h_i)

    Now let's put a requirement that Wanda's chance of being able to decrypt is larger than some number r (which has to be between 0 and 1). Then, h_s*(1 + h_i) >= r or (since probably h_s is not 0, or else it's simple- Wanda never survives) we get h_i >= (r/h_s) - 1. (r/h_s) - 1 defines a curve*, and any value of h_i that is on or above this curve is a solution; you need to remember that h_s and h_i are numbers that are between 0 and 1, so you must intersect the area defined before with the square between (0,0) and (1, 1).

    Easy as pi. Useless my boop.

    EDIT: * and here's what 0.5/x - 1 looks like. Intersect the area above the right hand side of the curve with the (0, 0)-(1, 1) square to get the area where h_s (x coord) and h_i (y-coord) can be and allow Wanda a 50% or better chance to be able to decrypt after this incident.

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    Last edited by BLANDCorporatio on Tue Dec 14, 2010 7:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 7:02 pm 
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    Trotsky wrote:

    Trotsky wrote:
    Just for laughs, I 'm going to redo the calculations based off of empirical evidence. If we go by the number of falling incidents we are aware of (Wanda and Ansom in book 1 and Parson/Banana in summer updates) then we have the observed probabilities as:
    death = 0 Incapacitation = 1/4 Injured = 3/4.

    Since straight death is, seemingly, impossible, it shall not be included in further calculations. Now for the absolutely useless (but highly entertaining) mathamancy:
    Wanda survives:
    injured only. Chances = 3/4
    Incapacitated and healed by Jack. Chances= 1/4 * 3/4 = 3/16
    total = 15/16

    Wanda does not survive:
    Both Wanda and Jack incapacitated. Chances = 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
    Total = 1/16

    I like them odds.

    And even that observation has at least three basic assumptions, 1) the mount and rider have separate probabilities, 2) the mount doesn't cushion the fall in some way, and 3) there is no difference between falling from having your mount shot out from under you and falling because the guy riding you is fat and made you jump off a rampart. Also, four subjects spread across three incidents are hardly statistically significant.

    Man, I love it when I get to auto-plagiarize in a topically appropriate manner, I didn't even have to rephrase anything to match the context.

    P.S. I didn't include Ansom being tackled by Bogroll because I assumed Being tackled (and likely landed on) by Bogroll adds damage and skews the results. It was most definitely NOT because I forgot that that would have been considered a fall. :ugeek:


    You forgot to include Bogroll's fall in your sample set. It didn't kill him (does landing on Ansom not count as a fall?), but we don't know if he was (un)injured or incapacitated.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 49
     Post Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 7:12 pm 
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    Just a thought: who said that the one shown falling ws the real Wanda? Jack is a masterclass foolamancer so al this could just be a sharade for Jetstone while any number of things is happening:
    -The real Jack and Wanda are stilll where they were.
    -The real Jack and Wanda did get a hobo each and are safely droping.
    -The real Jack and Wanda flew near the ground so she can decrypt but are waiting to land after they take the zone.
    -The whole stack is on the run.
    -...

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