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 Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 1:45 pm 
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joosy wrote:
robak wrote:
Side note: Why didn't Wanda and Maggie link up for the Trioxin spell, if 2-way links are so much easier and safer?


Because the story didn't call for it.


it's also dangerous. Sizemore introduced links as "a risky and fragile spell, especially with three". Sizemore and Maggie could do this because they already knew that their minds are very compatible and thus it was less risky. But I'm pretty sure Wanda and Maggie are tuned on different frequencies.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 2:10 pm 
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    Whispri wrote:
    I'm wondering why Wanda is classed as extremely vulnerable, considering her minimum stats from here are pretty high. One less Ansom with her sure, but one extra Ossomer and one extra Sylvia, she's probably tougher now.

    Those stats are just counting her Leadership bonus of 8, which is granted to all decrypted/uncroaked on her side. I don't think anything been shown to say how many hits she has, or anything that would indicate how much damage she personally can take. Also, they're operating off of Parson's CWL bonus, which is nowhere near what Ansom's was. Ossomer, Sylvia, and KC might be able to give their individual stacks a decent bonus, but I doubt Wanda will benefit from all of them.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 2:28 pm 
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    robak wrote:
    Side note: Why didn't Wanda and Maggie link up for the Trioxin spell, if 2-way links are so much easier and safer?

    It might also have been a question of juice expenditure. Since Wanda's a croakamancer, Trioxin was probably the only reasonable use for her remaining juice, whereas Maggie, as a thinkamancer, probably had better things to do with her remaining juice, such as thinkagrams and troop coordination, especially since (I think) Trioxin took place at night, and they would have had their juice replenished at dawn.

    This is assuming that 2-way links just improve caster efficiency - if it could have resulted in more powerful uncroaked, then they should have risked linking (although Parson didn't know about 2-way links at the time, and the casters weren't readily volunteering information).

    Illustrative example (arbitrarily assuming linking increases caster efficiency by 20%)
    Situation 1: Wanda uses 100% of her juice on Trioxin (leaving her at 0%); Maggie uses 90% of her juice helping Parson (leaving her at 10%); both replenish to 100% at dawn
    Situation 2: Wanda/Maggie links, casts Trioxin, unlinks; Wanda's at 60% juice, twiddling her thumbs until dawn; Maggie's at 60% (minus whatever juice she spent linking and delinking), uses remaining juice to help Parson; both replenish to 100% at dawn.
    Situation 2 results in a net loss in caster usage (~30% of Maggie's juice).

    Linked casters are probably super-powerful because juice-pooling lets you expend more than 100% juice - up to 200% or 300% (or, using my example, 250% or 375%) - on a single spell. Linked turnamancers might increase that potential, letting you stockpile juice for more than one turn, so that, even if they only add an extra turn's worth of juice, you can cast a single spell that costs 400% (bimancer) or 600% (trimancer) (or, using my example, 500% or 750%) juice. Actually, using this formula, a bimancer containing a turnamancer would, every second turn, be more powerful than a trimancer, although it would be limited to thinkamancy and turnamancy spells (such as Kingworld, which could be considered either turnamancy (forced turn ending) or thinkamancy (temporary long-distance mind control of some GK unit capable of ending turn) or some combination of the two, depending on your theory of the spell). A trimancer containing a turnamancer would be mind-blowingly powerful. A trimancer containing two turnamancers would border on retconjuration.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 3:17 pm 
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    As Parson told us, croakamancy like trioxin wasn't a matter of juice. While croakamancy "comes from the mind," possibly any benefits accrued from a link would have made little marginal difference in terms of the actual strength of the mass-decroaked units. Parson had better uses in mind for Maggie.

    Wanda is an individualist. Even if a master-class croakamancer could have benefited from linking with a weaker thinkamancer, she would have been reticent to admit it out of pride or a desire to act freely. Yes, she participated in the trimancer link later, but she certainly couldn't have uncroaked a volcano on her own.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:10 pm 
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    It seems to me that Text Update 21 is highly relevant here. Jack already had the idea, and I think he knows exactly what Lord Hamster is proposing.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 11:56 pm 
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    Chris Goodwin wrote:
    It seems to me that Text Update 21 is highly relevant here. Jack already had the idea, and I think he knows exactly what Lord Hamster is proposing.

    He's got the germ of an idea. Or part of Parson's idea. But decryption will only get them so far, buy them only so much time... Parson must find a way to change the odds. Or a way to make Jetstone make a mistake or miscalculation.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 1:15 am 
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    DevilDan wrote:
    Chris Goodwin wrote:
    It seems to me that Text Update 21 is highly relevant here. Jack already had the idea, and I think he knows exactly what Lord Hamster is proposing.

    He's got the germ of an idea. Or part of Parson's idea. But decryption will only get them so far, buy them only so much time... Parson must find a way to change the odds. Or a way to make Jetstone make a mistake or miscalculation.


    Oh, I dunno. They waste a lot of air defenses, shoot down nearly all of GK's forces, who are now croaked and on the ground, incidentally taking out a goodly portion of the ground forces that are down there massed. Mass decryption ensues. All of the air capable units -- who can also fight on the ground -- and all of Jetstone's croaked ground troops suddenly get up, and are now capable of some slaughter. At that point, all that matters is that Wanda has enough juice to keep decrypting, because that is when it's a metaphorical foodfight. Croak all you want, Wanda will decrypt more.

    Edit: Even taking into account decrypted troops getting dusted, odds are they'll still take out live troops. And as long as Wanda has juice, every loss of one Jetstone unit is a net gain of two for GK. The only way at that point that Jetstone can stop the slaughter is to, essentially, surrender (or take Wanda out with a lucky shot, which we're postulating doesn't happen). In their own capital city. And note that their treasury is extremely depleted, and they're working on popping a Royal heir... those croaked/decrypted units aren't getting replaced.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 3:06 am 
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    Chris Goodwin wrote:
    DevilDan wrote:
    Chris Goodwin wrote:
    It seems to me that Text Update 21 is highly relevant here. Jack already had the idea, and I think he knows exactly what Lord Hamster is proposing.

    He's got the germ of an idea. Or part of Parson's idea. But decryption will only get them so far, buy them only so much time... Parson must find a way to change the odds. Or a way to make Jetstone make a mistake or miscalculation.


    Oh, I dunno. They waste a lot of air defenses, shoot down nearly all of GK's forces, who are now croaked and on the ground, incidentally taking out a goodly portion of the ground forces that are down there massed. Mass decryption ensues. All of the air capable units -- who can also fight on the ground -- and all of Jetstone's croaked ground troops suddenly get up, and are now capable of some slaughter. At that point, all that matters is that Wanda has enough juice to keep decrypting, because that is when it's a metaphorical foodfight. Croak all you want, Wanda will decrypt more.

    Edit: Even taking into account decrypted troops getting dusted, odds are they'll still take out live troops. And as long as Wanda has juice, every loss of one Jetstone unit is a net gain of two for GK. The only way at that point that Jetstone can stop the slaughter is to, essentially, surrender (or take Wanda out with a lucky shot, which we're postulating doesn't happen). In their own capital city. And note that their treasury is extremely depleted, and they're working on popping a Royal heir... those croaked/decrypted units aren't getting replaced.

    Juice probably isn't an issue - Wanda was able to instantaneously decrypt all of RCC I, which suggests that decryption doesn't cost juice. The issue is whether Wanda can decrypt across zone boundaries, or if she can somehow safely switch zones.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 4:42 am 
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    splintermute wrote:
    Juice probably isn't an issue - Wanda was able to instantaneously decrypt all of RCC I, which suggests that decryption doesn't cost juice. The issue is whether Wanda can decrypt across zone boundaries, or if she can somehow safely switch zones.

    Indeed this seems to be the one unknown on which this all might hinge. Letting Wanda/Wanda's dwagon drop into the courtyard (or atrium) most likely has a chance of croaking Wanda (=certain loss for GK). OTOH if she survives and gets other GK or decryptable units closeby, she can start the decryption steamroller again and with some luck stomp Jetstone.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 8:04 am 
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    Chris Goodwin wrote:
    DevilDan wrote:
    Chris Goodwin wrote:
    It seems to me that Text Update 21 is highly relevant here. Jack already had the idea, and I think he knows exactly what Lord Hamster is proposing.

    He's got the germ of an idea. Or part of Parson's idea. But decryption will only get them so far, buy them only so much time... Parson must find a way to change the odds. Or a way to make Jetstone make a mistake or miscalculation.


    Oh, I dunno. They waste a lot of air defenses, shoot down nearly all of GK's forces, who are now croaked and on the ground, incidentally taking out a goodly portion of the ground forces that are down there massed. Mass decryption ensues. All of the air capable units -- who can also fight on the ground -- and all of Jetstone's croaked ground troops suddenly get up, and are now capable of some slaughter. At that point, all that matters is that Wanda has enough juice to keep decrypting, because that is when it's a metaphorical foodfight. Croak all you want, Wanda will decrypt more.

    Edit: Even taking into account decrypted troops getting dusted, odds are they'll still take out live troops. And as long as Wanda has juice, every loss of one Jetstone unit is a net gain of two for GK. The only way at that point that Jetstone can stop the slaughter is to, essentially, surrender (or take Wanda out with a lucky shot, which we're postulating doesn't happen). In their own capital city. And note that their treasury is extremely depleted, and they're working on popping a Royal heir... those croaked/decrypted units aren't getting replaced.


    Any plan that depends on your opponent being stupid is doomed the failure.
    "We're about to bring down several hundred tons to dwagon meat, let's stand our troops directly under them"
    Ground forces would be best deployed grouped in the atrium, ready to do mopping up. JS will avoid shooting down anything onto its roof, that's the problem that GK has to solve to make this happen.
    Also, anything that reduces the chance of Wanda's survival compared to Jack's plan is not a smart move.
    Wanda's survival has to be more important than capturing the city.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 11:09 am 
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    In our minds, it's almost as if the entirety of the courtyard or walls will be carpeted with archers such that it will be relatively easy to crush them with carcasses. But those archers aren't just going to stay there and let dragon bits land on their heads.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 11:23 am 
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    gazes_also wrote:
    Any plan that depends on your opponent being stupid is doomed the failure.
    "We're about to bring down several hundred tons to dwagon meat, let's stand our troops directly under them"
    Ground forces would be best deployed grouped in the atrium, ready to do mopping up. JS will avoid shooting down anything onto its roof, that's the problem that GK has to solve to make this happen.
    Also, anything that reduces the chance of Wanda's survival compared to Jack's plan is not a smart move.
    Wanda's survival has to be more important than capturing the city.


    I don't think it's so much a case of "dependent on enemy stupidity", as it is that Wanda & Co can likely position themselves over the Atrium (which, if memory serves, is part of the Courtyard zone).

    If they do that, and they're shot down by the Spacerock defenses (archers/spells/etc), they'll go crashing through the Atrium's glass roof and kill a boopton of Jetstone troops.

    Of course, this lends itself to an interesting supposition - that Wanda & Co could essentially take those units hostage by positioning themselves thus, putting Jetstone in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

    Consider:

    Wanda & Co. position themselves over the Atrium, which contains a lot of units that Jetstone can ill afford to lose right now.

    If Jetstone shoots Wanda & Co. down, they likely lose a significant portion of those troops, and will likely lose the city (and wind up with a probable case of "Sayonara, Jetstone").

    If they don't shoot her down, then she can hit the Tower next turn, kill Slately, and it's "sayonara Jetstone".

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 11:33 am 
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    The Black Hand wrote:
    I don't think it's so much a case of "dependent on enemy stupidity", as it is that Wanda & Co can likely position themselves over the Atrium (which, if memory serves, is part of the Courtyard zone).

    If they do that, and they're shot down by the Spacerock defenses (archers/spells/etc), they'll go crashing through the Atrium's glass roof and kill a boopton of Jetstone troops.

    Of course, this lends itself to an interesting supposition - that Wanda & Co could essentially take those units hostage by positioning themselves thus, putting Jetstone in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

    Consider:

    Wanda & Co. position themselves over the Atrium, which contains a lot of units that Jetstone can ill afford to lose right now.

    If Jetstone shoots Wanda & Co. down, they likely lose a significant portion of those troops, and will likely lose the city (and wind up with a probable case of "Sayonara, Jetstone").

    If they don't shoot her down, then she can hit the Tower next turn, kill Slately, and it's "sayonara Jetstone".


    It's Jetstone's turn -- if having all those troops in the atrium turns out to be a problem, they can send them somewhere else. Sending them elsewhere in the same city doesn't even cost them any Move.

    That said, a falling-based exploit may catch them by surprise through sheer novelty, especially considering that Jetstone's traditionalism puts a damper on their ability to think outside the box (though Trammenis seems less encumbered in that regard).

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 11:51 am 
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    SteveMB wrote:
    The Black Hand wrote:
    I don't think it's so much a case of "dependent on enemy stupidity", as it is that Wanda & Co can likely position themselves over the Atrium (which, if memory serves, is part of the Courtyard zone).

    If they do that, and they're shot down by the Spacerock defenses (archers/spells/etc), they'll go crashing through the Atrium's glass roof and kill a boopton of Jetstone troops.

    Of course, this lends itself to an interesting supposition - that Wanda & Co could essentially take those units hostage by positioning themselves thus, putting Jetstone in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

    Consider:

    Wanda & Co. position themselves over the Atrium, which contains a lot of units that Jetstone can ill afford to lose right now.

    If Jetstone shoots Wanda & Co. down, they likely lose a significant portion of those troops, and will likely lose the city (and wind up with a probable case of "Sayonara, Jetstone").

    If they don't shoot her down, then she can hit the Tower next turn, kill Slately, and it's "sayonara Jetstone".


    It's Jetstone's turn -- if having all those troops in the atrium turns out to be a problem, they can send them somewhere else. Sending them elsewhere in the same city doesn't even cost them any Move.

    That said, a falling-based exploit may catch them by surprise through sheer novelty, especially considering that Jetstone's traditionalism puts a damper on their ability to think outside the box (though Trammenis seems less encumbered in that regard).


    Well, if memory serves, the reason why all those troops are in the Atrium is because they're heavies and/or melee units, not ranged ones, and Tramennis wants to keep them safe for mopping up whatever survivors there may be when Jetstone's ranged units (and defences) take out the flight of Dwagons.

    So, as far as Jetstone knows, they're perfectly safe there.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 11:58 am 
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    Let's assume that a dwagon rider, when his dwagon is shot out from under him, can somehow ride the corpse down and survive the landing. (Something like the way Bogroll survived landing on top of Ansom.) The whole plan kind of assumes that anyway.

    Can a Foolamancer veil his own side's units to look like the other side's? Maybe.

    Can a Foolamancer veil the other side's units? Almost certainly not. What about if he's linked with a Thinkamancer?

    Idea: Jack, having either survived or been decrypted, and Maggie link up. Jack then proceeds to veil opposing troops as decrypted. Probably unled stacks, amidst other unled stacks. Because of the Thinkamancer link, the other units on the same side buy it. Hijinks, and soon lots of new decrypted, ensue.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 12:09 pm 
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    Chris Goodwin wrote:
    Let's assume that a dwagon rider, when his dwagon is shot out from under him, can somehow ride the corpse down and survive the landing. (Something like the way Bogroll survived landing on top of Ansom.) The whole plan kind of assumes that anyway.

    Can a Foolamancer veil his own side's units to look like the other side's? Maybe.

    Can a Foolamancer veil the other side's units? Almost certainly not. What about if he's linked with a Thinkamancer?

    Idea: Jack, having either survived or been decrypted, and Maggie link up. Jack then proceeds to veil opposing troops as decrypted. Probably unled stacks, amidst other unled stacks. Because of the Thinkamancer link, the other units on the same side buy it. Hijinks, and soon lots of new decrypted, ensue.


    That might work, if Maggie were in the same hex as Jack. (If memory serves, any casters performing a link need to be in the same hex to initiate it.)

    Unfortunately, she's back at Gobwin Knob with Parson.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 12:23 pm 
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    The Black Hand wrote:
    Chris Goodwin wrote:
    Let's assume that a dwagon rider, when his dwagon is shot out from under him, can somehow ride the corpse down and survive the landing. (Something like the way Bogroll survived landing on top of Ansom.) The whole plan kind of assumes that anyway.

    Can a Foolamancer veil his own side's units to look like the other side's? Maybe.

    Can a Foolamancer veil the other side's units? Almost certainly not. What about if he's linked with a Thinkamancer?

    Idea: Jack, having either survived or been decrypted, and Maggie link up. Jack then proceeds to veil opposing troops as decrypted. Probably unled stacks, amidst other unled stacks. Because of the Thinkamancer link, the other units on the same side buy it. Hijinks, and soon lots of new decrypted, ensue.


    That might work, if Maggie were in the same hex as Jack. (If memory serves, any casters performing a link need to be in the same hex to initiate it.)

    Unfortunately, she's back at Gobwin Knob with Parson.


    Charlie might be a data point in the other direction. (OTOH, he does have the Arkendish. OTOOH, we don't know for sure that he's a Thinkamancer.) I can at least see Parson asking Maggie, "Can you link up with Jack from here?"

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 12:33 pm 
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    robak wrote:
    Indeed this seems to be the one unknown on which this all might hinge. Letting Wanda/Wanda's dwagon drop into the courtyard (or atrium) most likely has a chance of croaking Wanda (=certain loss for GK). OTOH if she survives and gets other GK or decryptable units closeby, she can start the decryption steamroller again and with some luck stomp Jetstone.


    Well, Tramennis and Slately give GK a <1% chance of winning this right now, probably. They think they've got this in the bag. However, Wanda has a 33% chance of surviving a fall with only an injury. Let's figure that if she survives the fall, she has a 50-90% chance of not being killed by Jetstone troops on the ground. This probability depends on (1) her not being injured in the air and (2) managing to land amongst either allies or a pile of corpses.

    It works out to 16%-30% chance that GK wins this. Not great odds, but much better than what Jetstone was predicting.

    We can improve the odds even further if we give Jack a healing scroll and land him first. There's a 1/3 chance he'll survive and be able to cast, and in that case he can heal Wanda in the 1/3 chance that she's uncapacitated. Still only gets us up to 44% "Wanda made it to the ground and can cast" chance, though.

    Any other casters hiding up there? Or a possibility that an Arkentool can provide some protection from incapacitation? (I remember fallen Wanda asking Ansom to touch her with the pliers).

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 1:59 pm 
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    Pointyleaf wrote:
    However, Wanda has a 33% chance of surviving a fall with only an injury.


    I have noticed that it is popular to assume that the three options are equally distributed, but as far as I can remember all that has been said is that one of three things happen.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 2 – Page 36
     Post Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 2:07 pm 
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    Pointyleaf wrote:

    Well, Tramennis and Slately give GK a <1% chance of winning this right now, probably. They think they've got this in the bag. However, Wanda has a 33% chance of surviving a fall with only an injury. Let's figure that if she survives the fall, she has a 50-90% chance of not being killed by Jetstone troops on the ground. This probability depends on (1) her not being injured in the air and (2) managing to land amongst either allies or a pile of corpses.

    It works out to 16%-30% chance that GK wins this. Not great odds, but much better than what Jetstone was predicting.

    I would put her odds of not being croaked by JS troops if she survived a fall at in the <10% range - the most hated and feared opponent hits the ground and they don't swarm her and rip her to shreds - very unlikely.
    Jack's plan of block, decrypt, block probably has better than 75% chance of keeping Wanda alive and aloft, so really why take that chance.

    Quote:
    We can improve the odds even further if we give Jack a healing scroll and land him first. There's a 1/3 chance he'll survive and be able to cast, and in that case he can heal Wanda in the 1/3 chance that she's uncapacitated. Still only gets us up to 44% "Wanda made it to the ground and can cast" chance, though.

    Jack has already been injured and healed today - an injury severe enough that Wanda wanted to decrypt him. His resistance to any further damage could be minimal.

    Quote:
    Any other casters hiding up there? Or a possibility that an Arkentool can provide some protection from incapacitation? (I remember fallen Wanda asking Ansom to touch her with the pliers).


    That was so she could attune to them and get them away from Ansom.

    JS still have the turn and plenty of arrows, after an initial volley to thin things out a bit they could pick targets over safe landing areas and just take their time. They've shown a lot of patience so far, so why rush into something rash now? Could tower defenses be used to take out anything getting too close to the atrium?

    Here's a nasty proposition. Wanda and crew approach the tower to parley, Slately or Tremennis do what Wanda did and fire off the whole of the tower defense system in one shot, incinerating all of them.
    Why (apart from plot armour) not?

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