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 Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
 Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:08 pm 
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Knavigator wrote:
Skull the Troll wrote:
Knavigator wrote:
I'm sure the answer is that it's Rogers imagination, but anyone got better theories on why Parson has Erf eyes in this update?


I think its a clue about what is going on in this page. Roger sees the world in a particular way that is only marginally connected to facts. The picture is his minds eye memory of a conversation with Parson. Units in Erfworld have solid colored eyes, and so Rodgers memory just makes it that way. I feel the same way about everything he says on this page. Roger is a very unreliable narrator and I dont think what he says on this page is an insight into how magic works, but more an insight into how Roger's mind works. I also suspect that those thinking that Jojo has messed with it quite a bit, are right.


If that's true then it's interesting how Parson appears to be talking inside the temple. An interesting detail for a Thinkamancer to 'remember'.


It's not odd at all, since Parson made frequent visits to the MK and the Thinkamancers specifically to unravel their linkups, as with the whole Jed incident.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:17 pm 
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    greyknight wrote:
    Physicist here; it's not so much that "the electron is a particle" and "the electron is a wave" are both true as that they are both false. Our idea of "particle" is modelled on our (macroscopic) familiarity with e.g. snooker balls; similarly we understand "waves" by analogy with water waves. But an electron is neither a snooker ball nor a water wave; it's a separate category of object which merely happens to share certain behaviours with the other two. In fact, it's that last part which is surprising, really.


    I can confirm this. The problem with describing an electron as a wave or a particle is that those words are just analogies to things we know about from our daily experience on the macroscopic scale.

    And even on a macroscopic scale a wave is not a real thing. It is just an adjectival description of oscillating movement in some medium like water or air. It has no inherent reality of its own. So it is also quite meaningless to say that an election is a wave. Water isn't a wave. Water can have a wavelike motion. Same goes for the electron.

    We say "particle" to mean some piece of something that we can taste, touch, smell or see and which can be precisely confined to a set of fixed coordinates. Yet it is precisely meaningless to say that you can do any of these things to an electron. Because it is not a glob of Newtonian something that participates in the normal world of the human senses.

    Here's the interesting thing. Metallic bonds are basically just some of the orbitals of metal atoms merging together to form this smeary sea of electron cloud that exists throughout the whole structure. In a sense, all the valence electrons exist everywhere throughout the entire metal. This is why metals have conductive properties and are so shiny and reflective. It takes very little effort to simply squeeze a few electrons out the end of one wire by squeezing a few more in from the other end. And this is why light is absorbed by the whole excitation-emission process in such a granular fashion that it reflects it back out practically as-is, which is why you can just polish a metal to get a mirror.

    The dual nature of an electron is an artifact that arises from the failure of human language and perception. It is not some profound metaphysical truth. Nor is it some chintzy cute appeal to a middle ground.

    The truth is simply that electrons or anything small enough are not Newtonian matter. They are something fundamentally different. Once you accept that you are describing it by analogy to other things, it stops being all that weird.


    Last edited by DVL on Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:46 pm, edited 12 times in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:22 pm 
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    Hoo boy. Last time I posted there were about 3 pages. Now there's 13, about 24 hours later. Let's get into it.
    Knavigator wrote:
    keybounce wrote:
    I just realized what doesn't fit this view of fate. That Ansom was fated to be the first decrypted.

    Multiple unreliable narrators who insist that they know the answers ...


    History is written by the victors...quite literally when it comes to dueling Predictamancers.

    I'm not quite sure what you're getting at here, but the only prediction regarding Ansom that I remember is that he would become the first of "something new, something... glorious"; a Decrypted unit. That prediction came true, though in a way that probably nobody could imagine or intuit.
    DoctorD wrote:
    Mad Raven wrote:
    RIP, Bill. You may be a twisted little man, but you're still a talented caster, and once you're gone we'll never probably find out what flexural really means. Still I'm sure you'll delay Parson just long enough to keep that foxtrot going.


    http://www.dictionary.com/browse/flexural

    That definition doesn't really make much sense to me. I think that flexural has been mentioned somewhere else in the comic, but I can't remember where... Totally theoretical idea; it's got something to do with casters who give Stuff Motion. Dollamancers, Turnamancers maybe, etc.
    Lilwik wrote:
    I love pages about magic more than anything, and doubly so for Predictamancy and Carnymancy. I was really shocked by this theory of Predictamancy. When the people of Homekey considered Predictamancy to be bad luck, that looked just like they were blaming the messenger. It seems silly to consider Predictamancy to be at fault just because you don't like what your future holds, but now it seems that Predictamancy is the cause of everything that it predicts. Does that mean that Predictamancy really is bad luck and Predictamancers are worse than useless? One might almost think that it would be worth the cost of a Predictamancer's upkeep just to get the Predictamancer to stop making predictions when each prediction risks dooming your side.

    It seems bizarre and unlikely that the disciplines of magic would be so imbalanced. We've never seen a hierarchy of power in the magic kingdom. All disciplines seem equal in their own way, within their own specialty. Yet Thinkamancers give enormous powers of communication and linking and Dirtamancers fortify cities, while Predictamancers doom their own sides. What use is controlling the future if you have no say in what outcomes get locked in? Something seems wrong here.

    Remember the recent update with Marie in I'm Coming For You Stanley? Predictamancy is very powerful there. We haven't seen many of its powers though besides the obvious, so it may be quite powerful. This concept of Predictamancy and predictions in general being useless is not new. There's a few fantasy series I've read where a character will basically come to the conclusion that knowing what's coming in the future is useless because you can't change it. In fact, often the attempt to change it results in it happening. Fate and free will conflict with each other, and it may not be possible for them to work together.
    DVL wrote:
    Knavigator wrote:
    If that's true then it's interesting how Parson appears to be talking inside the temple. An interesting detail for a Thinkamancer to 'remember'.


    It's not odd at all, since Parson made frequent visits to the MK and the Thinkamancers specifically to unravel their linkups, as with the whole Jed incident.

    I think he's referring to the rule of there being no talking inside the Temple, it's all subvocalization.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:43 pm 
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    DVL wrote:
    Knavigator wrote:
    If that's true then it's interesting how Parson appears to be talking inside the temple. An interesting detail for a Thinkamancer to 'remember'.


    It's not odd at all, since Parson made frequent visits to the MK and the Thinkamancers specifically to unravel their linkups, as with the whole Jed incident.


    I seem to recall that Parson was told specifically not to talk while in the temple. (2nd paragraph)

    Now, I might be specifically (though not deliberately) not remembering a later incident wherein he did talk, and I absolutely do not remember any incident wherein he got chastised or otherwise punished for doing so, but otherwise, yeah, no speaking in the temple of the know-it-alls.

    Unless you're this guy. :P


    Last edited by Arci on Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:49 pm 
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    greycat wrote:
    greyknight wrote:
    This is actually one of the more problematic Predictions for Roger's theory in general, because the Prediction wasn't for her to croak Olive specifically but "the Ruler of Haffaton". A lot of the plot involved the resultant dancing around this point. What sort of weird circumstance would give rise to that dictum?


    This is the interesting thing about prophecies, to me. I'm speaking generally, across all of fiction.

    In most written fiction, prophecies seem to occur as a sequence of words. Usually in the native language of the person receiving (or spouting) the prophecy. Very often there is wordplay involved, with the author choosing words that have multiple meanings in this language, or unclear homonyms, vague descriptions of people instead of their names, ....

    In visual fiction (television shows, movies), prophecies are often quick audio-visual segments. Usually no more than 1-2 seconds, but they may be longer if there is fuzziness or confusion. The person receiving the prophecy will see and hear it, either as a dream or a waking vision, and they'll have to piece together which people they just saw, where they were, what they were doing, when the events will take place, etc. If there's confusion about the identity of a person seen in the prophecy, it's because they're wearing a mask, or they're a shapeshifter, or there's a secret twin sibling, or something of that nature.

    Now, Erfworld as a web comic is somewhere in between the two media. It's largely written in English ("Language"), but there are sections that are told with images. And we the readers have never seen an actual Prediction. We don't know what kind of information the Predictamancers receive. Is it visual? Linguistic? Spoken words? Written words? Raw emotions that they have to learn how to interpret as events? Smells?


    considering that predictamancers use a literal sixth sense we will never experience, I find it unlikely it's any of those. we actually do have an indication of what this sense is like though.

    http://archives.erfworld.com/Book%203/128

    so the craft of a predictamancer is translating all this highly abstract information about 'fate bubbles' and the like into language that can be expressed to a stern military minded ruler.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:24 pm 
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    Gathrun wrote:
    Stepping aside from Isaac and not knowing for sure if there are any other survivors, how many of the Thinkamancy's secrets and discoveries would go out the window with RVC's death, in terms of the discipline itself?
    There were 26 GMTTA, of which 15 were apparently croaked in the Temple collapse and one apparently non-critically incapacitated. I think that the temple itself might be the biggest loss, as there are indications that the Temple served as a repository of past Decisions.
    Gathrun wrote:
    Rebuilding the GM might be tough (are 'wild' casters a thing? Were all MK casters just lucky enough to have been sided and in the MK when their kingdoms fell?), but if the last or last sane one goes is there any chance?
    Trisha popped as a barbarian caster, her story is not in the free content but the rules on barbarian warlords and casters popping are referenced in Parson's notes.
    Sonic Screwdriver wrote:
    Not sure why, but I have an urge to attempt to rephrase Roger's explanation of Fate Magic. Nothing is truly Fated. Your can make educated and logical guesses, based on all available information, of what is likely to happen; sort of like using Parson's bracer.
    See, that's. the exact problem. Parson's bracer doesn't make "educated and logical guesses", it performs Mathamancy calculations based on user input. The Mathamancy is the added element above and beyond "as far as you know", the knowledge you bring to framing the question. Mathamancy, less obviously explicitly but no less in fact than Predictamancy and Findamancy, clairvoyantly reveals information that you do not already know. RVC is ignoring this reality.
    Sonic Screwdriver wrote:
    When a caster makes a Prediction, they are essentially enhancing their analytical skills, making a guess (concluding a Decision Tree), and then creating a Fate golem to make that educated guess more likely to happen.
    That's what RVC is saying, but it fails on the face of it because Prediction doesn't involve analysis of existing knowledge, but pure perception of what was not previously known.
    Sonic Screwdriver wrote:
    The way Roger described it, Carnymancers are also able to make predictions like a Predictamancer. While they can sense Fate golems and factor them into their guesses, they can't create their own. As a result, their own "Predictions," aren't as likely to happen, and they can see how much influence Fate golems have over them.
    This is the part I find most highly suspect, which makes me think Jojo is putting into RVC's head an idea that is a distorted version of something Carnymancers do and attributing it to Predictamancers. Classic projection, an important showmanship technique (which also is useful to other deceptive ends).
    Sonic Screwdriver wrote:
    It's been posited before, but I bet a three-way caster link with a Carnymancer and Predictamancer would be terrifying. It would essentially use Carny's power of self-delusion to insert biases and motivated reasoning in the Prediction process, essentially choosing an outcome (even if it's unlikely) and creating a Fate golem to enforce that decision.
    The problem would be getting either a Thinkamancer to link with a Carny (solved in the case of RVC), or a Predictamancer to attempt to directly alter rather than accept and serve "Fate". Also that the theory is hogwash and wouldn't work, but that's just my theory, the reluctance of Thinkamancers and Predictamancers to work with rather than against Carnies is canon.
    greyknight wrote:
    By the way, if you're referring to the Roger/Jojo link-up, I don't think the Carnymancer can "attack" the Thinkamancer during the link.
    I believe that Jojo must have cast on Roger to persuade him to link in the first place, and implanted a suggestion that Roger allow Jojo to show him how to modify his mind to be able to evade detection by the GMTTA. This suggestion was evidently unconscious, and contained a deeper suggestion that Roger should continue to work with Jojo.

    Somehow I'm seeing RVC being at a low point after a particularly pointed rejection by Vanna, and Jojo coming up and "comforting" him.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:35 pm 
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    trilo wrote:
    greycat wrote:
    greyknight wrote:
    This is actually one of the more problematic Predictions for Roger's theory in general, because the Prediction wasn't for her to croak Olive specifically but "the Ruler of Haffaton". A lot of the plot involved the resultant dancing around this point. What sort of weird circumstance would give rise to that dictum?


    This is the interesting thing about prophecies, to me. I'm speaking generally, across all of fiction.

    In most written fiction, prophecies seem to occur as a sequence of words. Usually in the native language of the person receiving (or spouting) the prophecy. Very often there is wordplay involved, with the author choosing words that have multiple meanings in this language, or unclear homonyms, vague descriptions of people instead of their names, ....

    In visual fiction (television shows, movies), prophecies are often quick audio-visual segments. Usually no more than 1-2 seconds, but they may be longer if there is fuzziness or confusion. The person receiving the prophecy will see and hear it, either as a dream or a waking vision, and they'll have to piece together which people they just saw, where they were, what they were doing, when the events will take place, etc. If there's confusion about the identity of a person seen in the prophecy, it's because they're wearing a mask, or they're a shapeshifter, or there's a secret twin sibling, or something of that nature.

    Now, Erfworld as a web comic is somewhere in between the two media. It's largely written in English ("Language"), but there are sections that are told with images. And we the readers have never seen an actual Prediction. We don't know what kind of information the Predictamancers receive. Is it visual? Linguistic? Spoken words? Written words? Raw emotions that they have to learn how to interpret as events? Smells?


    considering that predictamancers use a literal sixth sense we will never experience, I find it unlikely it's any of those. we actually do have an indication of what this sense is like though.

    http://archives.erfworld.com/Book%203/128

    so the craft of a predictamancer is translating all this highly abstract information about 'fate bubbles' and the like into language that can be expressed to a stern military minded ruler.


    My theory is that Predictamancers see Elvis impersonators doing an interpretative dance.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:43 pm 
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    greyknight wrote:
    EpicCrab wrote:
    Jillian croaks Olive Branch. Kind of fits. An argument could be made that Charlie wanted her dead.

    This is actually one of the more problematic Predictions for Roger's theory in general, because the Prediction wasn't for her to croak Olive specifically but "the Ruler of Haffaton". A lot of the plot involved the resultant dancing around this point. What sort of weird circumstance would give rise to that dictum?


    That's a fair point. Maybe it was just a Predictamancer from one of the many sides that Haffaton ate on its way to becoming the massive side they were just wished the Ruler dead. Maybe the Fate was always meant for Olive specifically but only mentioned the Ruler because she would be Ruler at the time, and other possible Rulers were never in danger. Or maybe Roger is just wrong. I'm liking that explanation the most, although admittedly that's just because I'm finding his character obnoxious.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:51 pm 
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    DoctorD wrote:
    Mad Raven wrote:
    RIP, Bill. You may be a twisted little man, but you're still a talented caster, and once you're gone we'll never probably find out what flexural really means. Still I'm sure you'll delay Parson just long enough to keep that foxtrot going.


    http://www.dictionary.com/browse/flexural



    Oh.

    Well, that's settled then. Croak the sick boop.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:59 pm 
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    What I find interesting about the whole Luckamancy golem hypothesis is that we have seen one of these before: Lady Sylvia's deaths. What's more interesting is that it wasn't a Predictamancer that did this. It was a Carnymancer, Jojo.

    Jojo's casting on Sylvia sounds exactly like one of these dictums he talks about. RVC's description of Predictions and Fortunes is completely the opposite of what I've been lead to believe. I had thought it was Jojo that laid a dictum and that it was Marie that was merely telling a fortune. (Knowing about the conclusion of a "decision tree" but not having actually done any of the inductive logic to reach that conclusion herself.)

    I might be forced to accept that Jojo really is casting on RVC to alter his beliefs.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:24 pm 
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    EpicCrab wrote:
    greyknight wrote:
    EpicCrab wrote:
    Jillian croaks Olive Branch. Kind of fits. An argument could be made that Charlie wanted her dead.

    This is actually one of the more problematic Predictions for Roger's theory in general, because the Prediction wasn't for her to croak Olive specifically but "the Ruler of Haffaton". A lot of the plot involved the resultant dancing around this point. What sort of weird circumstance would give rise to that dictum?


    That's a fair point. Maybe it was just a Predictamancer from one of the many sides that Haffaton ate on its way to becoming the massive side they were just wished the Ruler dead. Maybe the Fate was always meant for Olive specifically but only mentioned the Ruler because she would be Ruler at the time, and other possible Rulers were never in danger. Or maybe Roger is just wrong. I'm liking that explanation the most, although admittedly that's just because I'm finding his character obnoxious.


    Olive was only the ruler of Haffaton for about an hour on the day she was croaked. Judy Gale was the ruler of Haffaton for most of it's existence.

    Edit: Wait... never mind... I think I see what you mean.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:30 pm 
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    I'm having trouble reconciling the latest update with this one from Book 2. In the latter, Isaac behaves very much like a Earth-scientist would:
    Quote:
    But Isaac's work, his search for reliable facts, did move slowly forward. Was that any different from the schemes of Predictamancers? He hoped so, but he didn't trust his own judgment of it.
    ...
    A counter-force for every force, a reaction to every action. Opposite, and perhaps equal. He suspected it might be a law of Erfworld, but there was not enough evidence.

    He dropped at once to the ground and sat on dry grass, cross-legged. For a number of minutes, he simply sat there beside a springmount and tried to work out how he could prove (or more likely disprove) such a thing.

    It was a hard problem. Reliable facts were so difficult to come by! But he came up with a few promising lines of inquiry before his mind inevitably wandered away, drawn along the humming and tinkling vibrations of the world's strings.


    On the other hand, in the current update, we have:
    Quote:
    When a Prediction was cast, it took on a life of its own. The juice spent in making it was released into the Grand Cosmos as what the Minds termed a "predictum," or a "dictum," a theoretical entity which might be described as a Luckamancy golem. This was an unobservable being (or perhaps a set of instructions) that lived in the Numbers of the world.

    Where are the reliable facts? Where is the concern about having enough evidence? I would have expected Isaac to be very skeptical of theoretical entities that cannot be observed. Did the Great Minds really think alike on this or is RVC's certainty a result of him being corrupted by Carnimancy?

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:41 pm 
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    Althernai wrote:
    I'm having trouble reconciling the latest update with this one from Book 2. In the latter, Isaac behaves very much like a Earth-scientist would:
    Quote:
    But Isaac's work, his search for reliable facts, did move slowly forward. Was that any different from the schemes of Predictamancers? He hoped so, but he didn't trust his own judgment of it.
    ...
    A counter-force for every force, a reaction to every action. Opposite, and perhaps equal. He suspected it might be a law of Erfworld, but there was not enough evidence.

    He dropped at once to the ground and sat on dry grass, cross-legged. For a number of minutes, he simply sat there beside a springmount and tried to work out how he could prove (or more likely disprove) such a thing.

    It was a hard problem. Reliable facts were so difficult to come by! But he came up with a few promising lines of inquiry before his mind inevitably wandered away, drawn along the humming and tinkling vibrations of the world's strings.


    On the other hand, in the current update, we have:
    Quote:
    When a Prediction was cast, it took on a life of its own. The juice spent in making it was released into the Grand Cosmos as what the Minds termed a "predictum," or a "dictum," a theoretical entity which might be described as a Luckamancy golem. This was an unobservable being (or perhaps a set of instructions) that lived in the Numbers of the world.

    Where are the reliable facts? Where is the concern about having enough evidence? I would have expected Isaac to be very skeptical of theoretical entities that cannot be observed. Did the Great Minds really think alike on this or is RVC's certainty a result of him being corrupted by Carnimancy?


    You have to recognize that Isaac is not a normal Great Mind.
    That update that talks about his experiments tells us that the other Great Minds don't really have any interest in his "playground" and only visit when they want to talk to him.

    Quote:
    A few of the Great Minds lingered nearby, occasionally using the equipment with hesitation. But Isaac was aware that this place usually stood empty when he was not here. He himself was the attraction, even among other Masterminds. They all had something they wanted to converse with him about, but they knew to keep their distance lest they disturb his thoughts.


    Likewise, RVC shows suspicions of Isaac when he uses the word "inevitable" and says that Isaac is too close to Predictamancers for his liking.

    Even the whole Decision Tree thing is just Thinkamancers using pure induction to come to conclusions. This works well, if for example, you wanted to prove a mathematical theorem or something else equally abstract. It's less good if you care about observation and experimentation.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:27 am 
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    Althernai wrote:
    I'm having trouble reconciling the latest update with this one from Book 2. In the latter, Isaac behaves very much like a Earth-scientist would.
    The striking thing about that update is how far Isaac is from an Earth scientist. Isaac clearly wants to understand his world, but he's struggling because he doesn't understand the scientific method. For all Isaac's great thinking and thirst for understanding, Parson understands how to conduct an investigation far better than Isaac.

    What Isaac should do is come up with an idea about how to world works and then put that idea to the test by using it to make a prediction about the result of some experiment, thereby giving the idea a chance to fail. Repeat until he finds an idea that doesn't fail. Instead, Isaac is doing just what you'd expect a Headmaster to do: investigating the world only in his own thoughts. He despairs that he has no reliable facts with which to prove any of it because he doesn't understand science. "Reliable facts are so difficult to come by!" A scientist doesn't dream and wish for reliable facts; a scientist does experiments to force reliable facts to reveal themselves. You can't do science by forming decisions trees; you need to actually interact with the real world.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:45 am 
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    Lilwik wrote:
    Althernai wrote:
    I'm having trouble reconciling the latest update with this one from Book 2. In the latter, Isaac behaves very much like a Earth-scientist would.
    The striking thing about that update is how far Isaac is from an Earth scientist. Isaac clearly wants to understand his world, but he's struggling because he doesn't understand the scientific method. For all Isaac's great thinking and thirst for understanding, Parson understands how to conduct an investigation far better than Isaac.

    What Isaac should do is come up with an idea about how to world works and then put that idea to the test by using it to make a prediction about the result of some experiment, thereby giving the idea a chance to fail. Repeat until he finds an idea that doesn't fail. Instead, Isaac is doing just what you'd expect a Headmaster to do: investigating the world only in his own thoughts. He despairs that he has no reliable facts with which to prove any of it because he doesn't understand science. "Reliable facts are so difficult to come by!" A scientist doesn't dream and wish for reliable facts; a scientist does experiments to force reliable facts to reveal themselves. You can't do science by forming decisions trees; you need to actually interact with the real world.


    In addition to being a reference to Issac Asimov, Issac is also a reference to Sir Issac Newton... who was one of the people responsible for the formation of the proto-scientific methodologies that would eventually develop into the general processes of experimentation and study we call the scientific method today. He even halfway quotes Newton's Third Law of Motion in the linked update.

    The implication is that he was working on inventing (in Erfworld) the philosophy of empiricism that underpins science. We just met him when he hadn't quite gotten there yet. And now he may never.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:22 am 
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    Francis Bacon was actually widely credited for having first codified a scientific method, specifically the Baconian method.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novum_Organum

    EDIT:
    Although to be fair, it actually seems as though Ibn al-Haytham argued for observation then testing hypothesis long before anybody in Europe did.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_al-Haytham


    Last edited by DVL on Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:32 am 
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    I'm not sure what to make of this update, to be honest, especially considering how many people are taking issue with it. There were some points that I agree with though:

    Isaac was considered unusual for a Headmaster with his experiments, so that might explain why Roger's "insight" into Fate sounds like such junk. I mean, that theory was a lot to take in, and even for a world of magic it's just out there :P

    I also agree with the notion that Thinkamancers think too highly of themselves, and believe they know more about other Disciplines than the actual Casters of those Magics. As Jack once said, I feel like all the Casters are dancing around some Cosmic Fire, each believing they alone hold the truth.

    Also, thanks to whoever pointed out the evil shadow from Parson; I didn't even catch that D: I will say though, that picture is probably the happiest I've ever seen Roger :(

    I don't know if Jojo is casting on Roger or not. With Carnies and their reputation, it's very hard to tell when they're being sincere. I'd like to believe that Jojo really does consider Roger a friend, much like his love for Sylvia. That's not to say Jojo couldn't still take advantage of him, but things wouldn't be as interesting if what he said was all lies.

    I also completely forgot Carnymancers could cast fortunes. I checked the archives to see where we were shown that: Jojo talking about Sylvia just mentioned he found out about her Fate, not that he actually cast to find it out himself. I remembered seeing Charlie cast a fortune using Tarot Cards, but also remembered Parson learned from the GMs that Charlie had a form of Predictamancy when linked to the Dish. But here we see it mentioned that Charlie cast a fortune before he came ondish, showing that it's a natural Carnymancy ability.

    Something I don't get is Roger's mention of Croakamancy's self-destruction ability. Whether it's true or not I don't know, but either way, why would Roger think that this Croakamancer ability would apply to him? If anyone could do it, then it's not really a Croakamancy specific ability now is it? Unless he means he would be trying to cast outside of his Discipline, but that supposedly has a low success rate, so it seems like a gamble to me. If anyone understands how Roger would be able to accomplish this or if I'm misunderstanding something, please feel free to respond. I do like to hear that there are secrets of Croakamancy; it's been said multiple times by multiple people, but it would be nice to see what else Croakamancy can do besides uncroaking.

    And dang, Vanna's still got it :-\ that last message of hers was clearly to egg him on, and Bill fell for it like a dummy. I'm not looking forward to seeing how these two are going to make things more difficult D:

    It's been nice reading everyone's take on the update; I wish I had more to contribute regarding the discussion of Roger's/GM's(?) theory, but it was just weird to me D:

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:35 am 
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    Chiu ChunLing wrote:
    Sonic Screwdriver wrote:
    When a caster makes a Prediction, they are essentially enhancing their analytical skills, making a guess (concluding a Decision Tree), and then creating a Fate golem to make that educated guess more likely to happen.
    That's what RVC is saying, but it fails on the face of it because Prediction doesn't involve analysis of existing knowledge, but pure perception of what was not previously known.


    No he's not. He's describing two different powers here: Carnymancy fortunes and Predictamancy predictions. Carny fortunes cheat out an answer that analyzing existing knowledge would arrive at (without informing the carny how that answer was reached). Predictamancy Predictions reveal a guaranteed future event without requiring existing knowledge (and possibly forcing the event to happen via the act of Predicting).

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:45 am 
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    DVL wrote:
    Francis Bacon was actually widely credited for having first codified a scientific method, specifically the Baconian method.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novum_Organum


    I was careful to specify that Newton was only responsible for one of the methods that would give rise to the modern approach we use today.

    That said, after taking some more time to research, it seems Bacon was the first to really insist on empiricism as the only reliable way to eliminate bias. But he failed to convince others of the same and Descartes' rationalism continued to be practiced along side Bacon's empiricism. It was Newton who settled the debate in favor of empiricism... which actually makes Newton more responsible for empiricism's prominence in modern science than I had originally given him credit for.

    Seriously, Newton was a space alien. It's the only explanation for the list of accomplishments the dude has. He makes every other historical genius look like a drooling idiot.

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     Post subject: Re: Book 3 - Page 255
     Post Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:49 am 
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    Even if the thinkamancers are 100% right about fate, and fate is nothing but dictums influencing luck, that does not mean that the Titans are not in charge. They could have cast ancient primal dictums to fulfill their will on Erfworld. Those epic level divine dictums could even control what lesser dictums are created by mortal predictamancers, so there's no chance of things getting derailed. Considering that predictamancers can't choose what dictums they make, but instead draw them through intuition from the "Grand Cosmos", that definitely does not rule out a higher power deciding what dictums they create.

    The real takeaway from this update is that the future doesn't exist yet. Predictamancers cannot see the future. Instead, they see what the dictums are planning. It's a subtle distinction, but it means that there's no time travel shenanigans going on in Erfworld. Information is not traveling back in time to the predictamancers. I think that's a pretty interesting revelation by itself.

    Another interesting tidbit is that these "luck golems" act without the ongoing control of their maker. So if the Titans, or some other deity, did create epic history-spanning dictums to control Erfworld, that doesn't mean the Titans are still around. Their dictums could potentially be operating on autopilot long after they vanished.

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