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Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)
http://forums.erfworld.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=2815
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Author:  mortissimus [ Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Whispri wrote:
4 quatloo say that Dove's plan will work.


I'll take that. I am hoping for another twist to this story.

And though the bet is somewhat vague, I am sure that we will be able to agree on wheter it did in fact work or not.

Author:  drachefly [ Fri Mar 14, 2014 2:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Shai_hulud wrote:
Does this seem acceptable to you?


Okie-dokey-Loki

Author:  Lipkin [ Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

No one in particular wrote:
Here we are again! Another couple of months gone by, another 20q to throw in my pot.

Anyone want in on this? Anyone want to up raise their bet?

Refresher
Bet: Parson is a Date-a-mancer
Yes: (150)
    No one in particular - 150
No: (130)
    Lilwik - 10
    Taikei no Yuurei - 10
    drachefly - 20
    xarx - 20
    mortissimus - 30
    wih - 30
    0beron - 10
--edit--
MadZuri - 10 on No

Still taking these? I want to put as much as possible on no.

Author:  Taikei no Yuurei [ Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Lipkin wrote:
No one in particular wrote:
Here we are again! Another couple of months gone by, another 20q to throw in my pot.

Anyone want in on this? Anyone want to up raise their bet?

Refresher
Bet: Parson is a Date-a-mancer
Yes: (150)
    No one in particular - 150
No: (130)
    Lilwik - 10
    Taikei no Yuurei - 10
    drachefly - 20
    xarx - 20
    mortissimus - 30
    wih - 30
    0beron - 10
--edit--
MadZuri - 10 on No

Still taking these? I want to put as much as possible on no.

I think there is still 10 available for no.

Also, I was looking through my quatloo, and my current amount doesn't seem to match up with everything from the resolved bets. I seem to be 10q behind.

Author:  Lipkin [ Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Then put me down for that last 10.

Author:  drachefly [ Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
Also, I was looking through my quatloo, and my current amount doesn't seem to match up with everything from the resolved bets. I seem to be 10q behind.


It appears I didn't get your bet with bladestorm onto the total. That's why I have the complete list right there...

Author:  Godzfirefly [ Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

I'd like to bet 25q that Posbrake will survive until the end of the Digdoug story.

Author:  Taikei no Yuurei [ Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Interesting... I'm too torn on that to bet. I'd actually consider offering the same bet, though likely at a lower amount.

Author:  bladestorm [ Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
Interesting... I'm too torn on that to bet. I'd actually consider offering the same bet, though likely at a lower amount.

I will take both at 80% confidence. Posbrake has a doom counter.

Author:  drachefly [ Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

They didn't phrase it as a confidence, so I can't put that up unless they give a confidence too.

Author:  Godzfirefly [ Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

bladestorm wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
Interesting... I'm too torn on that to bet. I'd actually consider offering the same bet, though likely at a lower amount.

I will take both at 80% confidence. Posbrake has a doom counter.


Okay, if you require a confidence, I'll place at 85%.

Author:  bladestorm [ Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Godzfirefly wrote:
bladestorm wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
Interesting... I'm too torn on that to bet. I'd actually consider offering the same bet, though likely at a lower amount.

I will take both at 80% confidence. Posbrake has a doom counter.


Okay, if you require a confidence, I'll place at 85%.

Cool. then I guess I will take the other as a straight bet, once the bet amount has been determined.

Author:  Taikei no Yuurei [ Mon Mar 31, 2014 7:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

I'll do 20q at 60% confidence.

So bet of 6.4q for me, and 9.6q for bladestorm.

Author:  Taikei no Yuurei [ Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

So, I've been chatting in that one thread about the book 3 kickstarter a bit, and figured I'd come over here and put my money where my mouth is. I bet 50q strait up (no confidence stuff) that it'll hit the ~200% funding goal needed to get book 3 in full comic format.

Author:  Godzfirefly [ Thu Apr 03, 2014 3:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
So, I've been chatting in that one thread about the book 3 kickstarter a bit, and figured I'd come over here and put my money where my mouth is. I bet 50q strait up (no confidence stuff) that it'll hit the ~200% funding goal needed to get book 3 in full comic format.

Shouldn't bet on something you can directly affect the outcome of. ;-)

Author:  Taikei no Yuurei [ Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Godzfirefly wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
So, I've been chatting in that one thread about the book 3 kickstarter a bit, and figured I'd come over here and put my money where my mouth is. I bet 50q strait up (no confidence stuff) that it'll hit the ~200% funding goal needed to get book 3 in full comic format.

Shouldn't bet on something you can directly affect the outcome of. ;-)

As I will plunk down thousands of dollars to secure 50 quatloo without hesitation. Thus it is in your interest to bet against me to ensure that I'll donate enough that we make it ;)

Author:  drachefly [ Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Godzfirefly wrote:
I'd like to bet 25q that Posbrake will survive until the end of the Digdoug story.

etc.

Resulting bets:

Godzfirefly bet 17.1q to Bladestorm's 15.4q that Posbrake survives to the end of Digdoug... I'd rather avoid tenths, so you want it to come out more evenly, we can make that 11:10 or 21:19. Between, we're stuck with one or the other being around a half.
Taikei no Yuurei bet 6q to Bladestorm's 9q of the same proposition. Or 9:12, if you want to beef it up a bit.

Author:  Taikei no Yuurei [ Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

I'm good with 6:9 It's a low confidence bet after all.

Author:  Godzfirefly [ Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Yeah...yet another reason to dislike confidence betting...

I don't care if the bet is 17:15 or 21:19. I do not want 11:10 because I feel like it defeats the purpose of having requested a 25q bet to begin with.

I am not going to accept any confidence-based bets anymore. -_-

Author:  Taikei no Yuurei [ Fri Apr 04, 2014 7:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Godzfirefly wrote:
Yeah...yet another reason to dislike confidence betting...

I don't care if the bet is 17:15 or 21:19. I do not want 11:10 because I feel like it defeats the purpose of having requested a 25q bet to begin with.

I am not going to accept any confidence-based bets anymore. -_-

Yeah, the thing with confidence based bets is you have to bet about 2-3 times as much as you actually want to bet because of the way the math works out. It would be better if the formula would be tweaked so that you always bet your initial amount.

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