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 Post Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:35 pm 
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keybounce wrote:
Long term bet. 50q, even money. Either the rest of book 3 (highly unlikely, given its current length), book 4, or book 5, someone will attempt to summon the perfect anti-parson.

In response, they will get his old gaming group, as a team that is able to fight against and defeat him.

I will take this one.

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     Post Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:40 pm 
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    Shashakiro wrote:
    Never done this before but I'll put down some random-ish ones

    I'll bet 20 quatloos to 20 that, at some point in the future, it is the case both that Charlescomm exists as a side, and that the sum of the Charlescomm treasury and the value of the Charlescomm gem hoard are less than 531,000,000. In other words, some chain of events other than total defeat will force Charlie to effectively lose his entire on-hand treasury as displayed on book 3 page 107.

    I'll bet 10 quatloos to 40 that every single one of the Great Minds are croaked in the next 200 updates.

    I'll separately bet 10 quatloos to 10 that Roger Victor Clarence is croaked in the next 200 updates.

    I'll bet 10 quatloos to 10 that in 25 updates, Vanna is no longer a fully living unit of Transylvito. If she is Decrypted, I win.

    I'll bet 20 quatloos to 10 that by the end of book 3 including epilogues, a side will explicitly, purposefully, and aggressively wage war against the free casters of the Magic Kingdom as an entity. Note that I don't consider this to have happened in the Battle of Portal Park--Charlie's target was Parson, and GK's actions during the battle were self-defense. If a sub-faction of free casters (e.g. Great Minds) is attacked and this escalates to a MK-wide war, I win.

    I'll bet 50 quatloos to 50 that the following characters are all alive at the beginning of Book 4: Parson, Wanda, Stanley, Jack, and Jillian. Decrypted units are alive. This is void if the beginning of Book 4 does not take place 0-100 turns after the end of Book 3.

    I will take all of these, unless someone wants to pay me 5Q to assume the bet in my place.

    And would I still win if Vanna is no longer a unit of TV, but still living?

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     Post Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:13 am 
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    bladestorm wrote:
    Shashakiro wrote:
    Never done this before but I'll put down some random-ish ones

    I'll bet 20 quatloos to 20 that, at some point in the future, it is the case both that Charlescomm exists as a side, and that the sum of the Charlescomm treasury and the value of the Charlescomm gem hoard are less than 531,000,000. In other words, some chain of events other than total defeat will force Charlie to effectively lose his entire on-hand treasury as displayed on book 3 page 107.

    I'll bet 10 quatloos to 40 that every single one of the Great Minds are croaked in the next 200 updates.

    I'll separately bet 10 quatloos to 10 that Roger Victor Clarence is croaked in the next 200 updates.

    I'll bet 10 quatloos to 10 that in 25 updates, Vanna is no longer a fully living unit of Transylvito. If she is Decrypted, I win.

    I'll bet 20 quatloos to 10 that by the end of book 3 including epilogues, a side will explicitly, purposefully, and aggressively wage war against the free casters of the Magic Kingdom as an entity. Note that I don't consider this to have happened in the Battle of Portal Park--Charlie's target was Parson, and GK's actions during the battle were self-defense. If a sub-faction of free casters (e.g. Great Minds) is attacked and this escalates to a MK-wide war, I win.

    I'll bet 50 quatloos to 50 that the following characters are all alive at the beginning of Book 4: Parson, Wanda, Stanley, Jack, and Jillian. Decrypted units are alive. This is void if the beginning of Book 4 does not take place 0-100 turns after the end of Book 3.

    I will take all of these, unless someone wants to pay me 5Q to assume the bet in my place.

    And would I still win if Vanna is no longer a unit of TV, but still living?


    If in 24 updates she is on any side other than TV OR is croaked, uncroaked, disbanded, or Decrypted, I win.

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     Post Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:48 pm 
    This user was a Tool before it was cool This user is a Tool! Here for the 10th Anniversary
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    Shashakiro wrote:

    If in 24 updates she is on any side other than TV OR is croaked, uncroaked, disbanded, or Decrypted, I win.

    I can live with that. Now to find a Mathemancer to figure out how many Quatloo are at stake.

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     Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:23 pm 
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    DigDoug is the overlord of Rightshoring. I put 10 quatloos against anyone's 20 on that.

    The archons that will reach ICFYS will have a scroll that will cast the same volcano spell that was cast in the end of book 1, with carnymancy that will allow an archon to use the scroll. I put 10 quatloos on that.

    By the end of book 3, enough great minds will be croaked that reaching state 7 will be impossible for them. I put 10 quatloos on that.

    Jetstone will have a perfect warlord, given to it by Charlie, by the end of book 3. I put 10 quatloos against anyone's 30 on that.

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     Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:30 pm 
    E is for Erfworld Supporter Print Book 2 & Draw Book 3 Supporter Year of the Dwagon Supporter Pin-up Calendar and New Art Team Supporter Here for the 10th Anniversary Has collected at least one unit Erfworld Bicycle® Playing Cards supporter
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    Hungirly awaits wrote:
    DigDoug is the overlord of Rightshoring. I put 10 quatloos against anyone's 20 on that.

    The archons that will reach ICFYS will have a scroll that will cast the same volcano spell that was cast in the end of book 1, with carnymancy that will allow an archon to use the scroll. I put 10 quatloos on that.

    Jetstone will have a perfect warlord, given to it by Charlie, by the end of book 3. I put 10 quatloos against anyone's 30 on that.

    I vill nibble away. *Chomp*

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     Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:13 pm 
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    Yeah, Whispri, you won. I'll update when I get a nice block of time, but it's just bookkeeping now.

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     Post Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:45 am 
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    Parson and/or Maggie will learn about the GMTTA's sealed decision on Maggie before it is supposed to be triggered on Charlie's death.

    20q, even.

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     Post Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:36 pm 
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    Wanda dies. Someone else attunes. Wanda is decrypted. 20 quatloos.

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     Post Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:56 am 
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    Arky wrote:
    Wanda dies. Someone else attunes. Wanda is decrypted. 20 quatloos.

    Time frame?

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     Post Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:02 pm 
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    Before the end of book 3, Parson will decide that the GM's are a bigger threat than Charlie: 20q, even.

    And, Parson will attempt to ally with Charlie against the GM's: my 15q to your 20q.

    EDIT: Taken by Drachefly, and I think he probably wins after http://archives.erfworld.com/Book%203/243

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    Last edited by keybounce on Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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     Post Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:47 am 
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    Hungirly awaits wrote:
    Jetstone will have a perfect warlord, given to it by Charlie, by the end of book 3. I put 10 quatloos against anyone's 30 on that.


    I'll take you up on that

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     Post Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:27 pm 
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    keybounce wrote:
    Before the end of book 3, Parson will decide that the GM's are a bigger threat than Charlie: 20q, even.

    And, Parson will attempt to ally with Charlie against the GM's: my 15q to your 20q.


    Eventually? I'd agree. Before the end of Book 3? That's tempting. I think he might speculate but not conclude on that first one, but if that's understood to be a win on my part, I'll take them.

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     Post Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:08 pm 
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    Before the end of book three. Not just debate, but actually decide.

    I suspect that as soon as he finds out what the GM's did, he'll reconsider the whole "attack Charlie".

    ===

    Consider that EVERYTHING they are dealing with now comes from a turned decrypted archon inside CC shooting and causing them a treasury crisis. Then, Jack decided that keeping Parson with them was worthy of a massive Fox-Trot that lead to the first battle of Portal Park.

    Does Charlie manipulate contracts? Yes.
    Is he actually the cause of this issue? No.

    When all is said and done, can Parson/GK, and Charlie/CC agree on a common goal? ... Maybe. Depends on whether or not either side has a good negotamancer. Oh, wait, there are no negotamancers in Erfworld ...

    ---

    Parson made it very clear at the end of book one that he is NOT bound by Erf's rules of conduct. The whole "You are fated to kill Charlie" bit? I'm betting that he can say "Hey, that might be a good idea, but I have a better one: Take out the GM's and be friends with Charlie."

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    "We will fire the unhappy until morale improves!"
    It really speaks to how awful RVC's plan is that immolating himself first would improve the odds of success.

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     Post Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:44 pm 
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    bladestorm wrote:
    Arky wrote:
    Wanda dies. Someone else attunes. Wanda is decrypted. 20 quatloos.

    Time frame?


    By the end of the next book (since if Wanda dies it will probably be the final page of the current book or close to it).

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     Post Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:50 pm 
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    My 30 to your 20: Book three ends with a massive fire breaking out in the MK. Note that I fully expect it to be put out before the final end of the book; I'm actually expecting something along the lines of a panoramic view of burnt MK, with closeups of the destroyed hippie grove, etc.

    After all, it does no good for a single hex kingdom to go inferno and destroy everything, right? ...

    Didn't Charlie say he had a way to wipe out the MK? Inferno? Would he?

    _________________
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    "We will fire the unhappy until morale improves!"
    It really speaks to how awful RVC's plan is that immolating himself first would improve the odds of success.

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     Post Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:12 pm 
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    keybounce wrote:
    My 30 to your 20: Book three ends with a massive fire breaking out in the MK. Note that I fully expect it to be put out before the final end of the book; I'm actually expecting something along the lines of a panoramic view of burnt MK, with closeups of the destroyed hippie grove, etc.

    After all, it does no good for a single hex kingdom to go inferno and destroy everything, right? ...

    Didn't Charlie say he had a way to wipe out the MK? Inferno? Would he?


    I'd put 20 against you on that. There's too many dirtamancers plus they could always just run through portals then back. I've got my own hunch about Charlie's plan, but it's probably not happening any time soon so no betting on it just yet.

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     Post Posted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 12:13 am 
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    New bet: 10, even up, that by the end of next book, Parson comes up with a way to get a cloud to follow an order.

    Bonus if that cloud is somehow shaped like a pony ... :-)

    _________________
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    "We will fire the unhappy until morale improves!"
    It really speaks to how awful RVC's plan is that immolating himself first would improve the odds of success.

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     Post Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:08 pm 
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    Quote:
    I'll bet 10 quatloos to 10 that in 25 updates, Vanna is no longer a fully living unit of Transylvito. If she is Decrypted, I win.

    I'll bet 20 quatloos to 10 that by the end of book 3 including epilogues, a side will explicitly, purposefully, and aggressively wage war against the free casters of the Magic Kingdom as an entity. Note that I don't consider this to have happened in the Battle of Portal Park--Charlie's target was Parson, and GK's actions during the battle were self-defense. If a sub-faction of free casters (e.g. Great Minds) is attacked and this escalates to a MK-wide war, I win.

    I'll bet 50 quatloos to 50 that the following characters are all alive at the beginning of Book 4: Parson, Wanda, Stanley, Jack, and Jillian. Decrypted units are alive. This is void if the beginning of Book 4 does not take place 0-100 turns after the end of Book 3.


    I lost the first of those a while ago, and I believe that the recent accouncement that page 141 was actually the end of book 3 and everything following that in book 4 means that I have lost the second bet but won the third.

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